Links between NAO fluctuations and inter-annual variability of winter-months precipitation in the Seine River watershed (north-western France)

The inter-annual to multi-decadal winter variability (DJFM) of precipitation on the Seine River watershed (France) was analysed using continuous wavelet transform analysis and compared to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). Nine weather stations were used over the 1951 to 2004 period and confirmed the homogeneity of inter-annual fluctuations for all stations but one. Wavelet coherence between SLP over the Icelandic and Azores regions and precipitation highlighted coherence for different scales of variability according to the centre of action considered. Segmentation and wavelet analysis and coherence between precipitation and NAOI over a long period of time (1873–2004) showed: i) increasing variability across the last century at most time scales, especially for NAOI; ii) the existence of change points for the mean and variance of both signals; iii) overall discontinuity of the coherence whatever the scale considered, especially between ∼1910 and ∼1955 for inter-decennial to pluri-decennial scales.     

Age of the MGS5 segment of the Milanggouwan stratigraphical section and evolution of the desert environment on a kiloyear scale during the Last Interglacial in China's Salawusu River Valley: Evidence from Rb and Sr contents and ratios

The MGS5 segment of the Milanggouwan stratigraphical section in China's Salawusu River Valley records 8.5 sedimentary cycles consisting of dune sands alternating with fluviolacustrine facies or/and paleosols. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the distribution of Rb and Sr within the segment and paleoecological evidence (fossils), it appears that the observed sedimentation cycles mainly resulted from fluctuations between dry-cold and warm-humid climates, which indicates that the MGS5 segment experienced at least eight cold-dry and nine warm-humid climatic fluctuations. Of these, 12 cold–warm climate fluctuations correspond to DO20–DO25 and stadia 21–26 recorded by the NGRIP ice cores. Another five cold–warm climatic fluctuations that occurred during MGS5e correspond to five substages (5e1–5e5) recorded by the GRIP ice cores from Greenland. This kind of high-frequency climatic fluctuation on a kiloyear scale was mainly subject to variations in the strength of the East Asian winter and summer monsoons.     

冬季寒潮期间黄、渤海水位低频波动研究

利用 POM(Princeton Ocean Model)海洋数值模式建立渤、黄、东海冬季三维环流动力学区域模型。模型在海-气边界使用包括风应力、气压和热通量的大气驱动, 海洋边界使用西太平洋模式提供的环流和潮位驱动, 综合模拟潮波运动、温度、盐度、环流变化和水位低频波动。 模拟了 2001 年 1 月寒潮过境时黄、 渤海水位低频波动及流场变化, 分析了其对大风过程、 气压、降温的响应, 发现冬季强劲的北风和西北风都可以通过抽吸振荡在渤、 黄海诱发水位的低频波动, 东北风则由于地形影响不能诱发渤、黄海的低频波动。气压和降温只是在波动幅度上有一定的影响。波动发源于渤海和北黄海, 最大波幅可以达到 0.6 m。波动进入南黄海后有沿黄海深槽西侧传播的倾向, 波动幅度在传播过程中逐渐减小。     

Wave forces on, and water-surface fluctuations around a vertical cylinder encircled by a perforated square caisson

The wave forces and moments on and the water surface fluctuations around a vertical circular cylinder encircled by a perforated square caisson were experimentally investigated. The porosity of the outer square caisson was varied from 4.24 to 14.58%. The in-line wave forces on the inner vertical cylinder are influenced by changing the porosity of the outer caisson, whereas the variations in the water surface fluctuations are less influenced in this porosity range. The in-line moment on the vertical cylinder is relatively less sensitive when the porosity is increased from 4.24 to 8.75%, but varies substantially when it is increased from 8.75 to 14.58%. The force and moment ratio (i.e. the ratio of the force or moment on the vertical cylinder, when it is encircled by the perforated caisson to the force or moment on the cylinder without any protection around it) reduces with increased wave height, H, and wave length, L, whereas the wave height ratio (ratio of the wave height at a point in the vicinity of the structure to the incident wave height) is less sensitive for the varying H and L. A new non-dimensional parameter, p^1.5 (D/L)/(H/d), is introduced to predict the in-line force and moment on the inner vertical cylinder, where d is local water depth, D is the diameter of the inner cylinder and p is the porosity of the outer caisson in percentage. Simple predictive equations for forces, moments and water surface fluctuations are provided.     

Quasi-harmonic faraday-rotation fluctuations of radio waves when sounding the outer solar corona

A statistical analysis of the Faraday-rotation fluctuations (FRFs) of linearly polarized radio signals from the Helios 1 and Helios 2 spacecraft shows that the FRF time power spectra can be of three types. Spectra of the first type are well fitted by a single power law in the range of fluctuation frequencies 1–10 mHz. Spectra of the second type are a superposition of a power law and two quasi-harmonic components with fluctuation frequencies of about v₁=4 mHz (fundamental frequency) and v₂=8 mHz (second harmonic). Spectra of the third type exhibit only one of the two quasi-harmonic components against the background of a power law. The spectral density of the quasi-harmonic components can be represented by a resonance curve with a fairly broad [Δυ ≈ (0.5–1.3)υ_1,2] distribution relative to the v=v_{1, 2} peak. The intensity of the quasi-harmonic FRF has a radial dependence that roughly matches the radial dependence for the background FRF, while their period at the fundamental frequency is approximately equal to the period of the wellknown 5-min oscillations observed in the lower solar atmosphere. The fluctuations with 5-min periods in FRF records can be explained by the presence in the outer corona of isolated trains of Alfvén waves generated at the base of the chromosphere-corona transition layer and by acoustic waves coming from deeper layers.     

Fishing and Farming at Lake Chad: Responses to Lake-level Fluctuations

Lake Chad lies at the southern extreme of the Sahara Desert and is well known for large fluctuations in its surface area this century. Seasonal fluctuations, however, have received much less attention. This paper presents the results of two complimentary research efforts on the south-west shore of the lake. These illustrate how important both inter and intra-annual fluctuations in the level of the lake are, both in terms of their impact on the environment and in the response of the communities living on the lake shore. The paper compares a time series of the fluctuations in the level of Lake Chad as monitored by the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite with findings from participatory research with the communities of the south-west lake shore. It shows how the communities of the lake have responded to lake-level fluctuations with their livelihood choices. These results are used to show that although vastly different in scope, a high degree of complimentarity exists between remotely-sensed information and community-based research and that they are of potentially great value to development initiatives on the shores of Lake Chad.     

多普勒天气雷达风场产品在螺旋度计算中的应用

本文介绍了一种利用新一代天气雷达风场产品VWP计算螺旋度的方法,通过对两次大面积降水个例的螺旋度诊断分析发现,利用VWP风场产品计算的螺旋度具有较高的时间分辨率,大面积降水的螺旋度变化趋势与降水变化趋势比较吻合,螺旋度变化一般提前于降水变化,有2—3 h的提前预报量;螺旋度数值的大小与降水量的大小一般没有明显线性关系;螺旋度可以作为观测雷达站上空风场随高度变化的一个敏感因子;利用VWP风场产品来作为计算螺旋度的风场资料是可行的,比起其它风场资料更适于短时(临近)预报的业务化工作。     

对流性强风暴系统的螺旋度动力学研究

利用风暴尺度的数值模式ＡＲＰＳ成功地模拟了１９７７年５月２０日在美国Ｏｋｌａｈｏｍａ州Ｄｅｌ Ｃｉｔｙ的一次强对流风暴过程。其模拟结果与实际的观测非常接近，模式积分 ４０分钟，初始对流单体发生了分裂，产生了新的对流单体。原有对流单体在原地维持成熟的结构，表现出较强的稳定性，而分裂出的新单体在移动过程中，逐渐向成熟位相发展，并且又分裂出新的单体。利用模拟结果，着重讨论了风暴发展过程中螺旋度和超螺旋度的空间结构和时间演变特征，以及在强风暴系统的对流发展过程中的动力学作用。初始环境场的螺旋性结构有利于风暴的发展。在风暴发展阶段，低螺旋度有利于大尺度向对流尺度的能量串级，而在风暴成熟阶段，高螺旋度则有利于对流单体的能量维持，从而形成长生命周期的对流系统。在风暴的发展过程中，风暴流场结构具有向Ｂｅｌｔｒａｍｉ流结构的调整趋势，螺旋度向高值发展。超螺旋度在流体粘性作用的影响下，可反映出螺旋度密度空间积分的时间变化趋势，负的超螺旋度可使螺旋度增加。在对流风暴发展阶段，超螺旋度为负值，对流单体的结构螺旋性增强、螺旋度的增大，在风暴到达成熟阶段后，超螺旋度转为正值。因此，超螺旋度可用来标志对流风暴系统的成熟程度。     

2008年“凤凰”台风暴雨的水汽和螺旋度分析

本文利用NCEP/NCAR1°×1°再分析格点资料和降水实况数据,对"0808"号台风"凤凰"在登陆福建前后引发浙闽沿海地区的暴雨过程进行水汽和螺旋度分析。结果表明:东海和南海是此次强降水的主要水汽供应源。水汽输送辐合主要出现在低层,950 hPa水汽通量散度幅合场对强降水落区有较好的指示作用。台风登陆福建之前,东边界的水汽输入起主导作用;登陆福建后,南边界的水汽输入逐渐起主导作用。800 hPa螺旋度正值区对未来6 h强降水落区有很好的指示意义。同时,螺旋度强度演变对未来6 h的降水强度有较好的正相关关系。水汽收支演变表明净水汽输入量对于降水强度演变的指示效果不及螺旋度,但是整层净水汽输入明显减小时,可预见其后降水强度减小。     

一次东风波及其诱生低涡发生发展的诊断和数值试验

利用NCEP 1x1再分析资料诊断2001年8月3~4日发生在浙南闽北的东风波及其诱生中尺度低涡的暴雨过程。根据螺旋度(Helicity)分析了过程中的暴雨演变以及雁荡山脉[1]诱生中尺度低涡发生发展的原因。同时,利用中尺度有限区域模式MM5V2对该东风波诱生中尺度低涡进行模拟。结果表明:螺旋度大值中心和锋区的强度和位置的演变较好反映了暴雨落区和中尺度低涡的诱生、移动。螺旋度的时空演变对暴雨发生有很好的预示意义,高、低层螺旋度的低层正值辐合与高层负值辐散的配置是引起降水的重要机制;螺旋度计算较中尺度模式诱生低涡的初生位置、路径预报准确率高,两者集成可以提高诱生低涡的预报准确率。