Analysis And Simulation Of Surface-Layer Winds Using Multiplicative Cascade Models With Self-Similar Probability Densities

Statistical analysis techniques based on multiplicative cascades are investigated for use with surface-layer wind data sets collected in the atmospheric boundary layer over flat farm land. The data were found to exhibit multiscaling statistics, allowing the surface-layer winds to be simulated with the use of multiplicative random cascades. The study found evidence that, for the surface-layer at least, these cascade models (andhence the methods of multifractal analysis) should be applied in separate ways to the microscale inertial range, and the mesoscale. This is at odds with the view found in the existing literature, which proposes a `universal multifractal' model to replace the widely held view that there exists separate microscale, mesoscale and synoptic scales for which the processes governing each are different. At least two separate ranges of scaling are suggested for surface-layer wind data, corresponding to the microscale inertial range and the mesoscale. For the case of the mesoscale range, a self-similar distribution of weighting factors was found for the wind speed data themselves, rather than for an intermediate (dissipation) field, as is required for themicroscale data.     

Storm catastrophes in the United States

A unique historical data set describing the 142 storms each producing losses in excess of $100 million in the United States during the 1950–89 period were analyzed to describe their temporal characteristics. The storms caused $66.2 billion in losses (in 1991 values), 76% of the nation's insured storm losses in this period. These extreme storm catastrophes (SCs) were most prevalent in the south, southeast, northeast, and central U.S., with few in and west of the Rocky Mountains. Storm incidences were high in the 1950s, low in the 1960s-early 1970s, and increased in the 1980s. Losses due to SCs peaked in the 1950s, again in the late 1960s, with a lesser peak after 1985. The areal extent of storm losses peaked after 1975 and was least in the 1960s. The temporal variations of the three storm measures (incidence, losses, and extent) did not agree except when they all peaked in the 1950s. Regionally-derived time distributions of SCs showed a marked north-south differences in the United States with a U-shaped 40-year distribution in the northern half of the nation, and a relatively flat trend until a peak in the 1980s in the southern regions. The temporal distributions of hurricane-caused catastrophes differed regionally with occurrences in the prime areas, the southern, southeastern, and northeastern U.S., each quite different. Temporal distributions of thunderstorm and winter storm catastrophes were regionally more uniform.     

"98.7"特大暴雨低涡的螺旋度和动能诊断分析

“98．7”特大暴雨过程与700hPa低涡切变线的强烈发展以及丰沛的水汽和强垂直运动密切相关。螺旋度的诊断结果揭示,与强暴雨区和切变线低涡相应的是一对符号相反而又紧邻的螺旋度带。它们的垂直结构是一对符号相反而又互伴的螺旋度柱;螺旋度及其诸分量的量级是相同的。这表明,垂直运动的水平切变和水平速度的垂直切变以及水平速度的水平切变对螺旋度有相同大小的员献,也意味着强垂直运动和低空急流对暴雨的发生和发展极其重要。动能的诊断结果显示。强动能区与暴雨区和低涡切变线有很好的对应关系,在中、低空的强动能中心也正是强降雨中心;动能最强的700hPa也是低涡切变线发展最强的层面。强动能及其强梯度区和强螺旋度区基本一致。表明强动能及其强梯度对螺旋度变率及其通量有重要贡献。     

Fish Remains from Homestead Cave and Lake Levels of the Past 13,000 Years in the Bonneville Basin

A late Quaternary ichthyofauna from Homestead Cave, Utah, provides a new source of information on lake history in the Bonneville basin. The fish, represented by 11 freshwater species, were accumulated between 11,200 and 1000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. by scavenging owls. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of Lake Bonneville varied with its elevation; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values of fish from the lowest stratum of the cave suggest they grew in a lake near the terminal Pleistocene Gilbert shoreline. In the lowest deposits, a decrease in fish size and an increase in species tolerant of higher salinities or temperatures suggest multiple die-offs associated with declining lake levels. An initial, catastrophic, post-Provo die-off occurred at 11,300–11,200 ¹⁴C yr B.P. and was followed by at least one rebound or recolonization of fish populations, but fish were gone from Lake Bonneville sometime before 10,400 ¹⁴C yr B.P. This evidence is inconsistent with previous inferences of a near desiccation of Lake Bonneville between 13,000 and 12,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Peaks in Gila atraria frequencies in the upper strata suggest the Great Salt Lake had highstands at 3400 and 1000 ¹⁴C yr B.P.     

A field study of the coupled effects of aquifer stratification,fluid density,and groundwater fluctuations on dispersivity assessments

A number of experimental studies have tackled the issue of solute transport parameter assessments either in the laboratory or in the field. But yet, the behavior of a plume in the field under density driven forces, is not well known due to possible development of instabilities. Some field tracer tests on the fate of plumes denser than native groundwater such as those encountered under waste disposal facilities, have pointed out the processes of sinking and splitting at the early stage of migration. The process of dispersion was widely investigated, but the range of dispersivity values obtained from either experimental tests, or numerical and theoretical calculations is still very large, even for the same type of aquifers. These discrepancies were considered to be essentially caused by soil heterogeneities and scale effects. In the meantime, studies on the influence of sinking and fingering have remained more scarce. The objective of the work is to analyze how transport parameters such as dispersivities can be affected by unstable conditions, which lead to plume sinking and fingering. A series of tracer tests were carried out to study under natural conditions, the transport of a dense chloride solution injected in a shallow two-layered aquifer. Two types of experiments were performed: in the first type, source injection was such that the plume could travel downward from one layer to the other of higher pore velocity, and in the second one, the migration took place only in the faster layer. The results suggest some new insights in the processes occurring at the early stages of a dense plume migration moving in a stratified aquifer under groundwater fluctuations, which can be summarized through the following points: (i) Above a stability criterion threshold, a fingering process and a multi modal plume transport take place, but local dispersivities can be cautiously derived, using breakthrough curves matching. (ii) When water table is subject to some cycling or rising, the plume can be significantly distorted in the transverse direction, leading to unusual values of the ratio between longitudinal and transverse dispersivities. (iii) Under stable conditions, for example in the case of straightforward injection in the faster aquifer layer, longitudinal dispersivity is greater than the transverse component as usually encountered, and the obtained transport parameters are closed to macro dispersivity values, which reach their asymptotic limit at very short distances. (iv) The classical scale effect about the varying dispersivity at short distances could be a process mainly due to the distance required for a plume stabilization.     

Modeling the length of day and extrapolating the rotation of the Earth

The stochastic behavior of the length of day (LOD) process is analyzed and is modeled within statistical accuracy on a time-scale ranging from weeks to millennia by a three-component model comprising a global Brownian motion process, decadal fluctuations, and a 50-day Madden–Julian oscillation. While the model is intended to be phenomenological, some possible physical models underlying the three components are speculated upon. The model is applied to estimate long-range extrapolation errors. For example, it predicts a standard error of 1 h in the clock-time correction ΔT for extrapolation by 1,500 years from 500 to 2000 BC.     

Incipient sediment motion based on turbulent fluctuations

The current study modifies the representation of the Shields parameter using turbulent strength,i.e.the root-mean-square(rms) fluid velocity.Experiments were done under a steady,uniform flow using eight sediment sizes with particle Reynolds numbers(Rep) ranging between 1.0(fine sediment) and 183.4(coarse sediment).Utilising the peak rms horizontal(u) values,the critical Shields parameter,θ_c,was calculated and a trend similar to the well-established Shields curve was developed.The analysis was extended to the Shields curve obtained based on the critical shear velocity,Reynolds shear stress,and data extracted fro m the oscillating grid-turbulence experiments.Results show that turbulent fluctuations are crucial for the incipient sediment motion and are essentially better predictors than the commonly used critical shear velocity.A quadrant analysis to identify the role of turbulent bursting events in incipient sediment motion also was done where sweeps and ejections are dominant for finer and coarser sediment sizes,respectively.     

U-Series Chronology of Lacustrine Deposits in Death Valley, California

Uranium-series dating on a 186-m core (DV93-1) drilled from Badwater Basin in Death Valley, California, and on calcareous tufas from nearby strandlines shows that Lake Manly, the lake that periodically flooded Death Valley during the late Pleistocene, experienced large fluctuations in depth and chemistry over the last 200,000 yr. Death Valley has been occupied by a long-standing deep lake, perennial shallow saline lakes, and a desiccated salt pan similar to the modern valley floor. The average sedimentation rate of about 1 mm/yr for core DV93-1 was punctuated by episodes of more-rapid accumulation of halite. Arid conditions similar to the modern conditions prevailed during the entire Holocene and between 120,000 and 60,000 yr B.P. From 35,000 yr B.P. to the beginning of the Holocene, a perennial saline lake existed, over 70 m at its deepest. A much deeper and longer lasting perennial Lake Manly existed from about 185,000 to 128,000 yr B.P., with water depths reaching about 175 m, if not 330 m. This lake had two significant “dry” excursions of 10²–10³yr duration about 166,000 and 146,000 yr B.P., and it began to shrink to the point of halite precipitation between 128,000 and 120,000 yr B.P. The two perennial lake periods correspond to marine oxygen isotopic stages (OIS) 2 and 6. Based on the shoreline tufa ages, we do not rule out the possible existence 200,000 yr ago of yet a third perennial lake comparable in size to the OIS 6 lake. The²³⁴U/²³⁸U data suggest that U in tufa owes its origin mainly to Ca-rich springs fed by groundwater that emanated along lake shorelines in southern Death Valley, and that an increase of this spring-water input relative to the river-water input apparently occurred during OIS 6.     

Statistical characterization of impact of system variables on temporal dynamics of groundwater in highly weathered regoliths

In situations where the water table fluctuates during the rainy season the characterization of the impact of system variables on the temporal dynamics of the groundwater (GW) is essential to improve the understanding at catchment or regional scale behaviour of GW. In this study the appropriateness of the statistical parameters; mean, median, the 80^th percentile (PC80), coefficient of variation (CV), correlation coefficient (r), and multiple regression models were assessed to characterize the impact of system variables on the temporal dynamics of hydraulic head relative to ground surface (HH) during rainy seasons. The study was conducted from 1999 to 2003 in the wet tropical Johnstone River catchment (JRC) in north‐east Queensland, Australia. Piezometer wells were installed at 32 sites under cropping to 5–90 m depth on different soil types, landscape positions, and varying proximity to surface water bodies (i.e. four system variables). The HH was measured, at least at 10–15 day intervals during 1–5 consecutive rainy seasons. The HH in the 32 wells fluctuated throughout each of the five rainy seasons. The mean HH averaged over the seasons ranged from 1·1 to 17·2 m across the wells, the median from 0·9 to 17·3 m, and the PC80 from 0·3 to 16·1 m. The temporal behaviour of HH characterization by mean of means of HH, the mean of medians of HH, and the mean of PC80 of HH, indicated the HH can be classified to belong to three different groups for each one of these parameters. The impact of the system variables on temporal dynamics, explored using multiple regression procedure, indicated that the model for median was marginally better than mean. The CV was found to be most appropriate parameter to characterize the impact of GW system variable (aquifer type), a component of the system variables, on temporal dynamics. The interactions of GW (i) belonging to different GW system and (ii) at shoulder with footslope in a landscape were best characterized by simple linear correlations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.