Diagnosis of a Severe Rainstorm Event Induced by Eastly Wave and Vortex in Off Southeast Coast of China

Using the NCEP reanalysis at 1° ×1° resolution in conjunction with satellite imagery, a study is undertaken of easterly wave related rainstorm events on August 3～4, 2001 in seaboards between northern Fujian and southern Zhejiang, expounding the scheme for computing helicity, and exploring the rainstorm evolution and the genesis of the Yandang mountains-triggered a meso-vortex (Duan and Chen, 2005) by means of helicity and Q vector divergence. Besides, MM5V2 is employed to simulate the easterly wave caused meso-vortex. Results show that the development of the central intensity and location of the high-valued helicity is well indicative of the fallout area and the genesis of the meso-vortex, discovering that the space/time evolutions of helicity serve as indicators of some utility for the rainfall occurrence; it is revealed that the calculated helicity is of higher precision than MM5V2 simulations in predicting the initial position and the track of the meso-vortex, with their combination contributing to the improvement of predicting the meso-vortex, also, the space/time evolutions in the superimposition of the zone of large-value helicity gradients upon that of high-value Q vector divergence gradients can be used to accurately forecast the rainstorm happening and initial position of the meso-vortex, thereby illustrating the higher ability of diagnosing the precipitation and its system in the superimposed region.     

The evolution of Petrov lake and moraine dam rupture risk (Tien-Shan,Kyrgyzstan)

An interdisciplinary study of glacier-related hazards in the Petrov lake region (Ak-Shiirak Range, the Inner Tien-Shan, Kyrgyzstan) has been undertaken to identify potential dangers to the area. A cooperative effort from experts in the fields of hydrology, glaciology, geomorphology and geophysics has been employed in this study. For the hazard assessment, evolution of the Petrov glacier and lake was reconstructed using historical reports, aerial photographs and satellite images. Geomorphological mapping and geophysical soundings was applied to the lake territory and the moraine dam. This has identified potentially hazardous areas of the dam including subsurface drainage zones and cracks that could cause a sudden extremely high discharge. In the past three decades, the Petrov lake has doubled in size, while in recent years, its area has been increasing by more than 92,000 square metres per year. Although there is no evidence for an imminent outburst, the dramatic increase in the lake’s size emphasizes the importance of this study.     

Evidence of Magnetic Helicity in Emerging Flux and Associated Flare

The aim of this paper is to look at the magnetic helicity structure of an emerging active region and show that both emergence and flaring signatures are consistent with a same sign for magnetic helicity. We present a multiwavelength analysis of an M1.6 flare occurring in the NOAA active region 10365 on 27 May 2003, in which a large new bipole emerges in a decaying active region. The diverging flow pattern and the “tongue” shape of the magnetic field in the photosphere with elongated polarities are highly suggestive of the emergence of a twisted flux tube. The orientation of these tongues indicates the emergence of a flux tube with a right-hand twist (i.e., positive magnetic helicity). The flare signatures in the chromosphere are ribbons observed in Hα by the MSDP spectrograph in the Meudon solar tower and in 1600 Å by TRACE. These ribbons have a J shape and are shifted along the inversion line. The pattern of these ribbons suggests that the flare was triggered by magnetic reconnection at coronal heights below a twisted flux tube of positive helicity, corresponding to that of the observed emergence. It is the first time that such a consistency between the signatures of the emerging flux through the photosphere and flare ribbons has been clearly identified in observations. Another type of ribbons observed during the flare at the periphery of the active region by the MSDP and SOHO/EIT is related to the existence of a null point, which is found high in the corona in a potential field extrapolation. We discuss the interpretation of these secondary brightenings in terms of the “breakout” model and in terms of plasma compression/heating within large-scale separatrices.     

Modelling the Global Solar Corona: III. Origin of the Hemispheric Pattern of Filaments

We consider the physical origin of the hemispheric pattern of filament chirality on the Sun. Our 3D simulations of the coronal field evolution over a period of six months, based on photospheric magnetic measurements, were previously shown to be highly successful at reproducing observed filament chiralities. In this paper we identify and describe the physical mechanisms responsible for this success. The key mechanisms are found to be (1) differential rotation of north – south polarity inversion lines, (2) the shape of bipolar active regions, and (3) evolution of skew over a period of many days. As on the real Sun, the hemispheric pattern in our simulations holds in a statistical sense. Exceptions arise naturally for filaments in certain locations relative to bipolar active regions or from interactions among a number of active regions.     

Probabilistic Model for Concentration Fluctuations in Compact-Source Plumes in an Urban Environment

A comprehensive model for the prediction of concentration fluctuations in plumes dispersing in the complex and highly disturbed wind flows in an urban environment is formulated. The mean flow and turbulence fields in the urban area are obtained using a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow model, while the standard k-ϵ turbulence model (k is the turbulence kinetic energy and ϵ is the viscous dissipation rate) is used to close the model. The RANS model provides a specification of the velocity statistics of the highly disturbed wind flow in the urban area, required for the solution of the transport equations for the mean concentration and concentration variance (both of which are formulated in the Eulerian framework). A physically-based formulation for the scalar dissipation time scale t _d , required for the closure of the transport equation for , is presented. This formulation relates t _d to an inner time scale corresponding to “internal” concentration fluctuation associated with relative dispersion, rather than an outer time scale associated with the entire portion of the fluctuation spectrum. The two lowest-order moments of concentration ( and ) are used to determine the parameters of a pre-chosen functional form for the concentration probability density function (clipped-gamma distribution). Results of detailed comparisons between a water-channel experiment of flow and dispersion in an idealized obstacle array and the model predictions for mean flow, turbulence kinetic energy, mean concentration, concentration variance, and concentration probability density function are presented.     

The Earth's Climate in the Next Hundred Thousand years (100 kyr)

One of the most striking features of the Quaternary paleoclimate records remains the so-called 100-kyr cycle which is undoubtedly linked to the future of our climate. Such a 100-kyr cycle is indeed characterised by long glacial periods followed by a short-interglacial (10–15 kyr long). As we are now in an interglacial, the Holocene, the previous one (the Eemian, which corresponds quite well to Marine Isotope Stage 5e, peaking at 125 kyr before present, BP) was assumed to be a good analogue for our present-day climate. In addition, as the Holocene is 10 kyr long, paleoclimatologists were naturally inclined to predict that we are quite close to the next ice age. Simulations using the 2-D climate model of Louvain-la-Neuve show, however, that the current interglacial will most probably last much longer than any previous ones. It is suggested here that this is related to the shape of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, which will be almost circular over the next tens of thousands of years. As this is primarily related to the 400-kyr cycle of eccentricity, the best and closest analogue for such a forcing is definitely Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS-11), some 400 kyr ago, not MIS-5e. Because the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere also plays an important role in shaping long-term climatic variations – especially its phase with respect to insolation – a detailed reconstruction of this previous interglacial from deep sea and ice records is urgently needed. Such a study is particularly important in the context of the already exceptional present-day CO₂ concentrations (unprecedented over the past million years) and, even more so, because of even larger values predicted to occur during the 21st century due to human activities.     

Evidence from the Rio Bayo valley on the extent of the North Patagonian Icefield during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene transition

This paper presents data on the extent of the North Patagonian Icefield during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene transition using cosmogenic nuclide exposure age and optically stimulated luminescence dating. We describe geomorphological and geochronological evidence for glacier extent in one of the major valleys surrounding the North Patagonian Icefield, the Rio Bayo valley. Geomorphological mapping provides evidence for the existence of two types of former ice masses in this area: (i) a large outlet glacier of the North Patagonian Icefield, which occupied the main Rio Bayo valley, and (ii) a number of small glaciers that developed in cirques on the slopes of the mountains surrounding the valley. Cosmogenic nuclide exposure-age dating of two erratic boulders on the floor of the Rio Bayo valley indicate that the outlet glacier of the icefield withdrew from the Rio Bayo valley after 10,900 ± 1000 yr (the mean of two boulders dated to 11,400 ± 900 yr and 10,500 ± 800 yr). Single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of an ice-contact landform constructed against this glacier indicates that this ice mass remained in the valley until at least 9700 ± 700 yr. The agreement between the two independent dating techniques (OSL and cosmogenic nuclide exposure age dating) increases our confidence in these age estimates. A date obtained from a boulder on a cirque moraine above the main valley indicates that glaciers advanced in cirques surrounding the icefield some time around 12,500 ± 900 yr. This evidence for an expanded North Patagonian Icefield between 10,900 ± 1000 yr and 9700 ± 700 yr implies cold climatic conditions dominated at this time.     

Estimation of the rocks statistical parameters from traveltime measurements

In this paper the method for estimating the statistical parameters of the medium from traveltime measurements of refracted waves is applied to study the statistical characteristics of crystalline rocks at the Multifunctional Station Faido (Gotthard Base Tunnel, Switzerland). The method is based on the geometrical optics (GO) approximation. A covariance function for traveltime fluctuations has been obtained by considering quasihomogeneous fluctuations of sound velocity in a plain-stratified medium. Strongly anisometric (having unequal dimensions in different directions) random inhomogeneities were embedded in this medium. To estimate the statistical parameters around the tunnel, the traveltime fluctuations are calculated. It is assumed that each observation of traveltime-distance relation for a given shot-receiver group corresponds to a particular realization of a medium statistical ensemble. By calculating the variance and the zero cross intervals of the first derivative of traveltime fluctuations, the standard deviation of the velocity fluctuations and the characteristic horizontal scale of the inhomogeneities are estimated. Although the method allows to obtain the characteristic lengths of the inhomogeneities in vertical as well as in horizontal direction, the limited offset of the field data made it only possible to measure the latter. The estimated horizontal characteristic scale is about 13 m, which is reasonably close to the direct geological measurements in the studied region, where quartz lenses are dominant among the inhomogeneities. The standard deviation of the velocity is estimated as 4.5%, which might be caused by the fractured structure around the tunnel and also by the fault zone near the study area.     

GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS, SUSPENDED SEDIMENT FLUX AND GLACIO-LACUSTRINE SEDIMENTS

ABSTRACT. In order to perform inverse modelling of climate variability based on palaeoclimate proxy records, the complexity of intermediate steps in the chain of processes from the climate forcing to the responding proxy has to be considered. In reconstructing climate-forced glacier fluctuations from proglacial lacustrine sediments it is important to understand how climate affects glacier dynamics. A glacier system is complex with many factors influencing sediment production, transport and deposition. Fluvial and mass movement processes in the proglacial environment may affect lake sedimentation substantially. We argue that it is easy to over-interpret glaciolacustrine sediment variability by ignoring these complications. The sediment records may contain individual layers resulting from single precipitation or melt events, as well as persistent changes in climate-forced glacier dynamics. We conclude that it is necessary to consider all possible influencing factors in order to derive reliable palaeoclimate data from lacustrine sediment sequences.     

Holocene Lake Level Fluctuations Recorded in the Sediment Compositionof Lake Juusa,Southeastern Estonia

The main aim of this study was to reconstruct the history of water level fluctuations of a small dimictic lake during the Holocene based on the lithological and geochemical composition of sediments. We studied lithological and geochemical parameters in sediment cores extracted along a transect through Lake Juusa in southeastern Estonia. Analysis revealed that LOI₅₅₀ and CaCO₃ content in the accumulated sediment are dependent on water depth. At depths greater than 3 m, the relationship between organic carbon and CaCO₃ is inverse, whereas no relationship exists at shallower depths. Lake-level changes are well depicted on the grain-size distribution profiles and macrofossil composition. An increase in the >‰315μm fraction appeared during the initial phases of water level fluctuations, followed by an increase in the 100–315μm fraction. The >‰36μm fraction dominated the silt fraction. Higher OC/N ratios in shallow water sediments reflect the dominance of macrophytes vegetation.