Histogram and variogram inference in the multigaussian model

Several iterative algorithms are proposed to improve the histogram and variogram inference in the framework of the multigaussian model. The starting point is the variogram obtained after a traditional normal score transform. The subsequent step consists in simulating many sets of gaussian values with this variogram at the data locations, so that the ranking of the original values is honored. The expected gaussian transformation and the expected variogram are computed by an averaging operation over the simulated datasets. The variogram model is then updated and the procedure is repeated until convergence. Such an iterative algorithm can adapt to the case of tied data and despike the histogram. Two additional issues are also examined, referred to the modeling of the empirical transformation function and to the optimal pair weighting when computing the sample variogram.     

Pressure fluctuations and the formation of the PGE-rich Merensky and chromitite reefs, Bushveld Complex

The Merensky Reef and the underlying Upper Group 2 chromitite layer, in the Critical Zone of the Bushveld Complex, host much of the world’s platinum-group element (PGE) mineralization. The genesis is still debated. A number of features of the Merensky Reef are not consistent with the hypotheses involving mixing of magmas. Uniform mixing between two magmas over an area of 150 by 300 km and a thickness of 3–30 km seems implausible. The Merensky Reef occurs at the interval where Main Zone magma is added, but the relative proportions of the PGE in the Merensky Reef are comparable to those of the Critical Zone magma. Mineral and isotopic evidence in certain profiles through the Merensky Unit suggest either mixing of minerals, not magmas, and in one case, the lack of any chemical evidence for the presence of the second magma. The absence of cumulus sulphides immediately above the Merensky Reef is not predicted by this model. An alternative model is proposed here that depends upon pressure changes, not chemical processes, to produce the mineralization in chromite-rich and sulphide-rich reefs. Magma was added at these levels, but did not mix. This addition caused a temporary increase in the pressure in the extant Critical Zone magma. Immiscible sulphide liquid and/or chromite formed. Sinking sulphide liquid and/or chromite scavenged PGE (as clusters, nanoparticles or platinum-group minerals) from the magma and accumulated at the floor. Rupturing of the roof resulted in a pressure decrease and a return to sulphur-undersaturation of the magma.     

Effect of Groundwater Fluctuations on Pore Pressures and Earth Pressures on Coastal Excavation Retaining Walls

Pore water and earth pressures acting on retaining structures are investigated using an efficient coastal double-layered excavation model to determine offshore excavation responses to groundwater fluctuations outside foundation pits. Total pore water pressure includes excess pore water pressure (due to groundwater fluctuations) and steady pore water pressure (due to steady seepage) determined using one-dimensional consolidation theory of double-layered soil and one-dimensional steady-state flow theory, respectively. Rankine's active and passive earth pressures are obtained from pore water pressure. This method is applicable to arbitrary groundwater fluctuation conditions. How physical parameters affect pore water pressure is numerically investigated using examples, demonstrating the method's practicality for calculating pore water and earth pressures.     

气候变化背景下中国玉米生产潜力变化特征

玉米作为中国第一大粮食作物,探究其生产潜力在气候变化背景下的时空变化特征对中国有效应对气候变化具有重要意义。论文结合全球农业生态区模型、极点对称模态分解方法和集对分析方法,探讨了中国玉米生产潜力的周期性波动特征及长期变化趋势,进而分析了其空间格局演变过程。结果表明：1960—2010年间,中国玉米生产潜力呈增加趋势,由1960年代的9.10亿t增至2000年代的9.45亿t左右。在年际尺度上,中国玉米生产潜力主要以准3 a和准5 a的周期进行波动;在年代际尺度上,存在准10 a和准20 a的波动周期。其中,准3 a的周期波动是中国玉米生产潜力长时间变化的最主要特征,这主要是受年降水量变化的影响。从空间格局来看,中国玉米生长适宜区主要集中在加格达奇—锡林浩特—临河—西宁—天水—中甸沿线以东;1960—2000年间,玉米生产潜力界线在中国东北部和临河—西宁沿线发生了较为明显的移动。华北平原、辽河平原、四川盆地等地区的玉米单产潜力变化趋势具有较强的一致性,松嫩平原、三江平原、关中盆地、长江中下游平原等地区的玉米单产潜力变化过程与上述地区恰好相反。在这2类地区,玉米单产潜力的变化均较显著,但变化方向在年代际尺度上具有交替性。     

Fluctuations in contracting objects

By a general relativistic fluctuation theory developed recently following ideas by LANDAU and LIFSHITZ, hydrodynamical fluctuations in a simple model of a contracting star are considered. It can be shown that there are always regions in which the fluctuations and mean square values of basic physical quantities are increasing.     

Relative sea-level fluctuations and brown coal formation around the Early-Middle Miocene boundary in the Lusatian Brown Coal District

The Tertiary sedimentary sequence in the Lusatian Brown Coal District is the result of several transgressive pulses with intercalated regressive phases. Regression repeatedly resulted in the formation of large littoral bogs at the transition between brackish and terrestrial palaeoenvironments. In the lithofacies changes of the Lower-Middle Miocene strata (high energy sands, low energy intertidal silts, paralic peats) long-term changes as well as short-term oscillations of sea level are recorded. The rise of sea level in the upper Lower Miocene (Hemmoorian transgression) is proved in numerous localities of the investigation area. After a regression phase with major peat formation events around the Lower-Middle Miocene boundary, a renewed sea-level rise resulted in the widest extension of marine-brackish beds over pre-Tertiary basement in the south of the region (higher Reinbekian transgression, Middle Miocene). Very differentiated, fine-scaled, probably sea-level induced coastline oscillations could probably be traced even into the coal seams by the recognition of successive bogfacial types possibly showing a groundwater level change in the ancient peat bog (change of topogeneous and ombrogeneous bog types). A biostratigraphic calibration of the decalcified Lower-Middle Miocene sequence with its alternating transgressive and regressive trends to the fully marine sediments of the basinal centre, which are dated by calcareous microfossils, is possible by means of dinoflagellate cysts and pollen and spores. Correspondence to: C. Strauss     

Cyclic sedimentation and climatically caused sea-level changes in the Late Palaeozoic of Central Europe

Significant short-term fluctuations are characteristic of geological history since Precambrian times. Only the younger Quaternary climatic fluctuations are known in more detail as a result of a high grade time resolution. Climatic change can also be postulated with respect to older, cold periods during which polar inland ice sheets developed. From a discussion of endogene and exogene interpretations it is shown that global climatic changes, and the sea-level changes induced by them, as well as changes in the position and extent of climatic zones throughout the world provide a control mechanism for sedimentation which is consistent with cyclic sedimentation in Late Palaeozoic times, and also if the basin subsides non-cyclically. The model allows an explanation of the development of the Permo-Carboniferous sedimentary cycles without numerous short-term vertical oscillations of the earth's crust. In reality, exogene and endogene controls on sedimentation act together in great variety of combinations.     

末次冰期东亚季风快速波动的模式与成因

通过对位于东亚季风区中东部与西部边缘的两个高分辨率黄土剖面记录的对比研究，发现它们不仅捕捉到了20个Dansgaard Oeschger事件与6个Heinrich事件，而且黄土记录与GRIP冰芯记录的这些快速气候波动基本上是同步的。暗示在整个末次冰期，东亚季风气候同样存在千年—百年尺度上的快速波动。所不同的是，西面的沙沟剖面对这些快速气候波动的反应比东面的王官剖面敏感。结合末次冰期中国黄土记录的先前研究结果，我们发现，自西向东Dansgaard Oeschger旋回的幅度逐渐变小，推测这主要是由西风与东亚夏季风共同作用所造成的。     

Time-clustering of natural hazards

Natural hazards can be represented as point processes that are characterized by the occurrence times of the events and their intensities. It is crucial to investigate the correlation properties of these processes in order to gain a deep knowledge of the dynamical mechanisms which underlie hazardous phenomena. To this end, suitable methodologies must be developed to perform these correlation analyses on processes, which are described as point-like processes. The concept of time-clustering implies a time-structured organization of these processes, and is in direct opposition to the pure randomness typical of Poissonian processes in which the events are uncorrelated. This article reports several examples of natural hazards within the framework of time-clustering.     

An Analytical Model For Threshold Crossing Rates Of Concentration Fluctuations In Dispersing Plumes

A simple analytical model is developed for the meanupcrossing rate of plume concentration fluctuations assuming that thisprocess can be well approximated by a lognormal process. The resultingexpression requires only the specification of the in-plume fluctuationintensity and in-plume Taylor micro-time scale and, hence, does notexplicitly involve the joint probability density function of theconcentration and its derivative. The analytical model provides agood fit to some field measurements of the mean upcrossing rate ina dispersing plume.