Prediction of railway ground vibrations: Accuracy of a coupled lumped mass model for representing the track/soil interaction

Recent advances in railway-induced ground vibrations showed that the track/soil interaction plays an important role in the low frequency range. This paper contributes to the numerical analysis of train/track/foundation dynamics by presenting the accuracy of a coupled lumped mass (CLM) model devoted to the railway foundations and to the track/soil coupling. Following a summary of the background and the advantages of the CLM model, the coupling strategy is quantified through two application cases. Firstly, the dynamic track deflection is calculated for different railway lines considering various degrees of complexities of foundations. Then, the foundation responses are compared depending on whether detailed coupling is introduced or not. The benefit of the proposed model is emphasized by presenting free-field ground vibration responses generated by a tram and a high-speed train, obtained by a revisited two-step prediction model developed by the authors.     

Modelling the advance–retreat cycle of a tidewater glacier with simple sediment dynamics

We present a simple coupled glacier-sediment model to simulate the evolution of a tidewater glacier. The model is based on a consideration of the total mass budget of a glacier, whereas ice mechanics are fully parameterized. The calving rate at the glacier terminus is assumed to be proportional to the water depth. We show that the formation of a morainic shoal has a profound influence on the response of a tidewater glacier to climatic forcing. For a slow periodic forcing of the equilibrium-line altitude, the model glacier advances steadily into the estuary, builds up a submarine terminal moraine, and then retreats rapidly when a critical point is hit. For a slowly increasing equilibrium-line altitude, at a rate as low as 1 m per 5 years, we find terminus retreat rates of up to 10 km in 50 years. Our model suggests that, although the response of tidewater glaciers to external forcing is strongly nonlinear, the onset of retreat is controlled by climate change.     

The value of a physically based model versus an empirical approach in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion for loess-derived soils

A data set on soil losses and controlling factors for 58 ephemeral gullies has been collected in the Belgian loess belt from March 1997 to March 1999. Of the observed ephemeral gullies, 32 developed at the end of winter or in early spring (winter gullies) and 26 ephemeral gullies developed during summer (summer gullies). The assessed data have been used to test the physically based Ephemeral Gully Erosion Model (EGEM) and to compare its performance with the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion.Analysis shows that EGEM is not capable of predicting ephemeral gully cross-sections well. Although conditions for input parameter assessment were ideal, some parameters such as channel erodibility, critical flow shear stress and local rainfall depth showed great uncertainty. Rather than revealing EGEM's inability of predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this analysis stresses the problematic nature of physically based models, since they often require input parameters that are not available or can hardly be obtained.With respect to the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this study shows that for winter gullies and summer gullies, respectively, over 80% and about 75% of the variation in ephemeral gully volume can be explained when ephemeral gully length is known. Moreover, when previously collected data for ephemeral gullies in two Mediterranean study areas and the data for summer gullies formed in the Belgian loess belt are pooled, it appears that one single length (L)–volume (V) relation exists (V=0.048 L^1.29; R²=0.91). These findings imply that predicting ephemeral gully length is a valuable alternative for the prediction of ephemeral gully volume. A simple procedure to predict ephemeral gully length based on topographical thresholds is presented here. Secondly, the empirical length–volume relation can also be used to convert ephemeral gully length data extracted from aerial photos into ephemeral gully volumes.     

基于GIS的南方丝绸之路国内段交通路线网络重建研究

南方丝绸之路交通路线网络的重建与研究,有利于深化历史时期中国西南边疆各区域之间和中国与东南亚、南亚等地区之间经济贸易发展和文化交流与合作的认识。本文利用历史文献资料、历史地理学等研究成果、田野调查资料、当代交通和遥感影像数据、DEM数据等,复原汉晋、唐宋、元、明清4个时期南方丝绸之路国内段的交通路线网络,分析影响古代西南山区交通路线走向的人文和自然因素,对比研究古代交通里程与实测距离之间的比例关系。结果显示：① 南方丝绸之路川滇间的交通网络格局在汉晋时期即已基本形成,两千年来相对较为稳定;云南内部和经云南出境的交通路线网络呈现出更加多元化的趋势。② 中央王朝对西南边疆少数民族地区统治力度的变化等人文因素在不同时期对南方丝绸之路交通路线的整体格局及空间演变起到重要作用。③ 在影响南方丝绸之路交通路线具体走向的自然因素中,海拔2200 m、坡度20°是重要的阈值。④ 历史时期西南山区1古代里约可换算为实测距离0.45 km。     

基于再分析资料的西南区域近50 a空中水资源的气候特征

利用1961—2012 年NCEP/ NCAR 的再分析月平均资料,分析了中国西南区域(四川、重庆、云南、贵州、广西大部分地区、西藏东部)水汽总量和水汽输送的气候特征。结果表明：西南区域水汽总量近50 a 来呈整体减少趋势;水汽含量在850—700 hPa 之间最为丰富;西南区域东湿西干,重庆、贵州、广西、四川东部水汽总量相对丰富;影响西南区域全年水汽量的有四个输送通道,春季水汽主要来源于孟加拉湾和偏西气流,夏季主要受到孟加拉湾和印度洋季风影响,秋季水汽主要来源于西太平洋,冬季则主要来源于偏西风和西太平洋;西南区域全年主要为水汽汇合区（除云南大部分地区以外）,常年有两个水汽辐合中心,一个在西藏与四川交接处（青藏高原东南侧）,一个在贵州及其附近地区;而云南上空主要为水汽辐散,仅夏季部分地区为水汽汇合区。     

琼东南盆地中央峡谷上新统块体搬运沉积体系地震特征及其分布

根据琼东南盆地深水区高分辨率2D/3D地震资料精细解释,和基于三维地震资料的相干分析,在琼东南盆地中央峡谷区发现了多期次的块体搬运沉积体系(MTDs)。研究表明,该区域块体搬运沉积体系包括3个主要的结构单元,即头部拉张区、体部滑移区和趾部挤压区,不同位置地震特征不同。大规模的块体搬运沉积体系构成了琼东南盆地中央峡谷区新近系以来地层中的重要沉积单元,并对深海沉积物的空间展布有重要的控制作用。上新世发育的一期块体搬运沉积体系,分布面积达300 km2,厚度达240 m,平面展布形态似扇形。高沉积物供给速率和不断的构造活动可能是该区域MTDs发育的主要原因。此外,地震活动、海平面变化也间接影响了MTDs的发育。     

末次间冰期127 ka时期植被反馈增强东亚夏季风降水的数值模拟研究

黄土和石笋等古气候代用资料表明在末次间冰期间,东亚夏季风增强、降水增多。本研究利用地球系统模式EC-Earth模拟了末次间冰期127 ka时期的气候,通过和工业革命前的气候模拟控制试验做比对,分析了127 ka时期由于地球轨道参数变化导致的东亚夏季风的空间变化特征。我们利用了两种EC-Earth的模式配置,即"大气-陆面-海洋-海冰"耦合模式和"大气-陆面-海洋-海冰-动态植被"耦合模式,分别估算轨道强迫和植被反馈对东亚夏季风降水变化的贡献。数值模拟结果表明,地球轨道强迫导致的海陆热力差异使得东亚夏季风系统显著增强并北移西伸,中国中部及华北地区降水增多而东部沿海地区降水减少。耦合了动态植被模式的试验结果表明,127 ka时期温暖湿润的气候致使东亚地区植被增多,植被的蒸腾作用使得地表的感热和潜热通量显著增大,从而增强了局地水循环,使降水进一步增多。植被的反馈作用在原本温暖湿润的华南地区对降水的影响并不显著,但是对相对干旱的我国中部和华北地区降水有显著影响。数值试验结果表明轨道强迫和植被反馈的共同作用能使内陆的四川盆地到华北一带夏季降水增加约40%,其中30%的增加是由于轨道强迫作用,约10%是由于植被反馈。这个研究也提醒我们,要得到更加合理的对过去或未来气候变化的模拟结果,有必要使用耦合动态植被的气候系统模式。

     

中国中心城市铁路客运的空间联系及其结构图谱

基于全国286个地级城市交互式的"城市—车次—城市"铁路客运联系数据,运用基于O-D网络的GIS空间分析方法,从普快、快速、特快、动车和高铁等细分车次类型的角度全面解构全国铁路客运联系的空间格局与结构特征。研究认为,全国中心城市铁路空间联系分布格局体呈现向东倾斜的"开"字型结构,即由京沪—沪深线(沿海轴)、京广—京哈线两纵轴与陇海—兰新线、沪昆线两横轴相互交汇形成全国铁路客运的骨架。全国铁路客运联系服从类似城市体系的位序—规模分布特征,属于自然状态下集中型的空间最优分布。中国铁路客运联系总体上依托大的交通轴线以近域核心城市间的联系为主,动车组及高铁联系则集中表现为东部三大经济区间的联系。     

河北省粮食生产发展趋势及其地区差异

河北省2002年粮食作物播种面积为6484.4千hm2,其中小麦占37.8%,玉米39.7%;粮食、棉花、油料的种植比例为15.9:1.0:1.6。北部四地市粮食播面占全省的23.3%,南部七地市76.7%。2002年粮食总产2435.8万t,为1949年的5.2倍;粮食单产3756kg/hm2,为1949年的5.8倍;人均粮食362kg,为1949年的2.4倍。北部地区粮食总产占全省的17.2%,南部地区82.8%。据回归分析与双向差分建模分析,2010年粮食总产可达3087.5万t,粮食单产4478kg/hm2,人均粮食460kg。据灰关联分析,影响粮食总产的主要因子有:粮食单产、农副产品收购价格总指数(1978年=100)、农业机械总动力、农村用电量、农田化肥施用量与有效灌溉面积等。根据笔者预测,若2010年农业机械总动力达8989万kw,农村用电量240.8亿kwh,农田化肥施用量356.1万t,有效灌面4549.2千hm2,则其粮食单产可达4664kg/hm2;若2010年仍保持2000年小麦播面所占比例(0.387),玉米播面所占比例达0.439,则其单产可达4387kg/hm2。