Infrastructure failure interdependencies in extreme events: power outage consequences in the 1998 Ice Storm

This paper addresses the problem of interdependent failures of critical infrastructures in disasters. Disruptions to critical infrastructure systems such as electric power or transportation frequently cause major social and economic loss in disasters, both directly and through failures in one system leading to or compounding disruptions in another. Strategic approaches regarding infrastructure failures are needed to guide community mitigation and preparedness efforts. This paper defines and provides a conceptual framework for investigating infrastructure failure interdependencies (IFIs) from the standpoint of societal impacts. In order to identify empirical patterns, a unique database has been developed of IFIs observed in major electric power outage events. This paper presents analysis of this data for a major Canadian disaster, the 1998 Ice Storm that affected the northeastern region of the country. The analysis identifies IFIs due to power outage caused by the storm that are of greatest societal concern. These represent potential foci for effective, targeted pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness efforts. The framework and approach are broadly applicable across a range of natural and human-induced hazards.     

A GIS-based Weights-of-Evidence model for mapping cliff instabilities associated with mine subsidence

The Weights-of-Evidence (W-of-E) technique was applied, within a geographic information system (GIS), to derive a model of rockfall potential associated with mining-induced subsidence. The purpose of the model was to describe the potential for rockfalls from up to 60 m high steep sandstone gorges and slopes associated with proposed underground longwall operations within the immediate vicinity of a previously mined area. Ten known rock falls associated with the previous mining operation were used as training points. Six evidential themes were considered-slope, cliff height, planform curvature, profile curvature, the distance of the cliff areas from the longwall panels, and the distance of the cliff areas from the river. Two models were created, one based on a mine layout in which longwall panels extend beneath the steep areas of a nearby river, and a second in which the mine layout is modified so that mining does not occur directly beneath or within 50 m of the steep slopes. This is to allow for the comparison of rockfall potential based on different mining configurations. The results demonstrate that the W-of-E method is a suitable tool for mine subsidence impact assessment, and suggest that not mining directly under the Nepean river may decrease rockfall potential, on average, by approximately ten times. Numerous limitations with the results, relating to the availability of appropriate evidential theme data and the accuracy of training points, are discussed.     

Ontario’s Environmental Farm Plan: Evaluation and research agenda

This paper analyses the operation of the Environmental Farm Plan (EFP) scheme in Ontario, Canada, a voluntary agri-environment scheme established in 1993. Previously unpublished data and interviews with farmers, leaders of farmers’ organisations and government officials are used to detail participation rates, geographical spread and method of operation. Largely developed by farmers’ organisations, the scheme has focused on soil management, water quality and storage/disposal of agricultural wastes. The environmental actions associated with these activities are discussed, revealing both successes and limitations. Distinctions are drawn with agri-environmental schemes in the European Union, and a broader context for the EFP is provided with respect to the proposed post-productivist transition of agri-food systems and the need to examine the way these systems are regulated. A need for further systematic research is proposed, specifically with respect to barriers to participation, the voluntary nature of the scheme, financial incentives and the resultant environmental impacts.     

The Impact of Exotic Dune Grass Species on Foredune Development in Australia and New Zealand: a case study of Ammophila arenaria and Thinopyrum junceiforme

Marram grass (Ammophila arenaria) and sea-wheat grass (Thinopyrum junceiforme) have been introduced to Australia and New Zealand. This study examines the morphology of incipient foredunes and established foredunes associated with these species at two sites, Mason Bay in southern New Zealand, and the Younghusband Peninsula in South Australia. Both species invaded the existing foredunes very rapidly. In both cases the antecedent topography comprised relatively sparsely vegetated, irregular foredunes. Invasion resulted in continuous, regular, evenly vegetated foredunes. At Mason Bay a massive foredune has formed since 1958, in conjunction with Ammophila. Thinopyrum has formed an incipient foredune, with a ramp or terrace morphology, along the Younghusband Peninsula, South Australia. In both cases gaps in the former foredune have been closed and the indigenous foredune vegetation has been displaced. Both species may decrease the frequency and severity of blowout development. They are likely to be resilient to aeolian processes of sedimentation compared with dunes formed by indigenous species. Ammophila survives burial, is tolerant of drought and is resistant to erosion associated with storm surge and high waves. Thinopyrum is very tolerant of salinity. These species may adversely affect the long-term development of coastal barriers by inhibiting transgressive dune development.     

Winners and Losers in Marine Conservation: Fishers' Displacement and Livelihood Benefits from Marine Reserves

Marine reserves can create both benefits and costs to fishers. This article explores the perceptions of fishers in Kenya and Seychelles about displacement, spillover, and overall impacts of local marine reserves on their livelihoods. We test whether these perceptions are different among fishers from different geographic and socioeconomic conditions. Sixty-six percent of fishers had been displaced from marine reserves or coastal development and 90% believed they had caught fishes that spilled over from marine reserves. Poorer fishers in Kenya were both displaced from, and also felt like they benefited from, marine reserves. This highlights how people's experiences with marine reserves, both positive and negative, are affected by a range of social considerations that may not be incorporated in typical evaluations of ecological and economic marine reserve success.     

The spatial distribution of tornadoes and high wind impacts associated with inland-moving tropical cyclones in the southeastern United States

The southeastern United States is routinely hit by tropical cyclones (TC). As TC track inland and dissipate their inland impacts can be substantial. This study examined the spatial patterns of societal impacts associated with tornadoes and high winds with 31 inland-moving TC that made landfall from 1985 to 2008. Hourly weather information was collected from all available first-order weather stations affected by each storm, as well as tropical cyclone preliminary reports issued from the National Hurricane Center. Societal impacts were identified through selected newspapers across the region and the National Climatic Data Center’s Storm Data. Geographic Information System (GIS) software was employed to make geometric measurements of the distance and direction of the impacts relative to storm center. From these measurements, the spatial distribution of the societal and meteorological impacts was plotted relative to the track (e.g., left vs. right) and location (forward vs. rear sector) of the cyclone center. Various tropical cyclone attributes, including size, strength, and forward speed of movement were then related to the occurrence of different impacts and their location relative to the cyclone track. The majority of tropical cyclone tornado and high wind impacts occur in the right-forward sector of the tropical cyclone. However, many TC produce impacts that occur in other sectors far from the center of circulation. These abnormalities are associated in many cases with interactions between the tropical cyclone circulation, topography, peripheral dry air, and extratropical synoptic weather features.     

Photo-identification and habitat use of Atlantic humpback dolphins Sousa teuszii around the Río Nuñez Estuary in Guinea,West Africa

Ecological data for the Atlantic humpback dolphin Sousa teuszii are scant. Six on-effort Sousa teuszii sightings were recorded during 817.6?km of boat-based effort in the Río Nuñez region of Guinea during October and November 2013. Two incidental sightings were also reported. Groups comprised 1–25 animals. Photo-identification produced a minimum population estimate of 47 animals. Most sightings (n = 5) were located close (<1?km) to shore along a 5.7?km stretch of coast on the west side of Île de Taïdi, primarily over shallow, sand–mud habitat. Two very distinctive individuals were present in all four Taïdi photo-identification encounters, suggesting high site fidelity and stable associations. Two sightings occurred in the outer Río Nuñez Estuary much farther from the coast (5–12?km) but in relatively shallow water (≤15?m) over sand–mud sediment. Focal follows (n = 5: 0.2–3.8?h duration) produced 9.02?h of behavioural data. Travel (51%), foraging (39%) and feeding (9.2%) dominated, with Taïdi dolphins spending more time foraging and feeding than the outer estuary groups. Three individuals had linear-severed dorsal fins consistent with injuries from fishing line. Some management implications of variation in habitat, site fidelity and movements of Sousa teuszii groups are discussed.     

Linking climate change and health outcomes: Examining the relationship between temperature,precipitation and birth weight in Africa

This paper examined the relationship between birth weight, precipitation, and temperature in 19 African countries. We matched recorded birth weights from Demographic and Health Surveys covering 1986 through 2010 with gridded monthly precipitation and temperature data derived from satellite and ground-based weather stations. Observed weather patterns during various stages of pregnancy were also used to examine the effect of temperature and precipitation on birth weight outcomes. In our empirical model we allowed the effect of weather factors to vary by the dominant food production strategy (livelihood zone) in a given region as well as by household wealth, mother's education and birth season. This allowed us to determine if certain populations are more or less vulnerable to unexpected weather changes after adjusting for known covariates. Finally we measured effect size by observing differences in birth weight outcomes in women who have one low birth weight experience and at least one healthy birth weight baby. The results indicated that climate does indeed impact birth weight and at a level comparable, in some cases, to the impact of increasing women's education or household electricity status.     

Linking health and productivity impacts to climate policy costs: a general equilibrium analysis

Much of the debate on global climate change has focused on direct costs of mitigation. Recently this debate has included the issue of ancillary benefits. The present analysis incorporates a linkage between air pollution and ancillary health benefits into a general equilibrium model applied to Sweden. Direct disutility and indirect health effects are modelled using concentration-response and contingent valuation data. Health benefits are compared in three scenarios for attaining the Swedish carbon dioxide target with alternative projected and harmful emission levels. Results show that the costs of climate policy could be overstated when not accounting for ancillary health benefits.