ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY OF THE EPIC CROP MODEL FOR USE IN THE STUDY OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN WEST AFRICA

The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model, developed by scientists of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), has been successfully applied to the study of erosion, water pollution, crop growth and production in the US but is yet to be introduced for serious research purposes in other countries or regions. This paper reports on the applicability of the EPIC 8120 crop model for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop productivity in sub‐Saharan West Africa, using Nigeria as the case study. Among the crops whose productivity has been successfully simulated with this model are five of West Africa's staple food crops: maize, millet, sorghum (guinea corn), rice and cassava. Thus, using the model, the sensitivities of maize, sorghum and millet to seasonal rainfall were demonstrated with coefficients of correlation significant at over 98 per cent confidence limits. The validation tests were based on a comparison of the observed and the model‐generated yields of rice and maize. The main problems of validation relate to the multiplicity of crop varieties with contrasting performances under similar field conditions. There are also the difficulties in representing micro‐environments in the model. Thus, some gaps appear between the observed and the simulated yields, arising from data or model deficiencies, or both. Based on the results of the sensitivity and validation tests, the EPIC crop model could be satisfactorily employed in assessing the impacts of and adaptations to climate variability and climate change. Its use for the estimation of production and the assessment of vulnerabilities need to be pursued with further field surveys and field experimentation.     

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.     

Erodibility of low‐compaction steep‐sloped reclaimed surface mine lands in the southern Appalachian region,USA

The use of loose spoils on steep slopes for surface coal mining reclamation sites has been promoted by the US Department of Interior, Office of Surface Mining for the establishment of native forest, as prescribed by the Forest Reclamation Approach (FRA). Although low‐compaction spoils improve tree survival and growth, erodibility on steep slopes was suspected to increase. This study quantified a combined K_C factor (combining the effects of the soil erodibility K factor and cover management C) for low compaction, steep‐sloped (>20°) reclaimed mine lands in the Appalachian region, USA. The combined K_C factor was used because standard Unit Plot conditions required to separate these factors, per Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) experimental protocols, were not followed explicitly. Three active coal mining sites in the Appalachian region of East Tennessee, each containing four replicate field plots, were monitored for rainfall and sediment yields during a 14‐month period beginning June 2009. Average cumulative erosivity for the study sites during the monitoring period was measured as 5248.9 MJ·mm·ha^?1·h^?1. The K_C ranged between 0.001 and 0.05 t·ha·h·ha^?1·MJ^?1·mm^?1, with the highest values occurring immediately following reclamation site construction as rills developed (June – August 2009). The K_C for two study sites with about an 18–20 mm spoil D₈₄ were above 0.01 t·ha·h·ha^?1·MJ^?1·mm^?1 during rill development, and below 0.003 t·ha·h·ha^?1·MJ^?1·mm^?1 after August 2009 for the post‐rill development period. The K_C values for one site with a 40 mm spoil D₈₄ were never above 0.008 t·ha·h·ha^?1·MJ^?1·mm^?1 and also on average were lower, being more similar to the other two sites after the rill development period. Based on an initial K_C factor (K_e) measured during the first few storm events, the average C factor (C_e) was estimated as 0.58 for the rill development period and 0.13 for the post‐rill development period. It appears that larger size fractions of spoils influence K_C and C_e factors on low‐compaction steep slopes reclamation sites. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Voluntarism,defensive localism and spaces of resistance to health care restructuring

This paper examines the evolving role of volunteers and the voluntary sector in shaping community responses to structural change in health care systems. It contributes to the emerging understanding of the different forms voluntarism can take within and among places, including as a space of resistance to contemporary restructuring initiatives such as regionalization. Within the geographies of voluntarism literature, however, little attention has been directed towards interrogating the local dynamics of such voluntarism, especially as it is reflected in public discourse. We address this deficiency through a media-based case study of public reaction to the recent implementation of Ontario’s Local Health Integration Networks (a type of regional health authority). Specifically, we examine a decade of newspaper coverage in a mid-size Canadian city region to document and characterize how the activities of volunteers and voluntary sector organizations in the community are portrayed in light of the structural imperatives to integrate health care services and regionalize health care governance. The media findings reveal a suite of public concerns and related activities, with the voluntary sector called upon in various ways to defend the autonomy of the community against the perceived threats to local services, employment and vulnerable populations. We interpret the evident complexity of voluntary sector resistance as a form of ‘defensive localism’ and discuss implications for developing informed policy on health care restructuring and for advancing knowledge on the local geographies of voluntarism.     

Contamination,bioaccessibility and human health risk of heavy metals in exposed-lawn soils from 28 urban parks in southern China's largest city,Guangzhou

The total concentrations and oral bioaccessibility of heavy metals in surface-exposed lawn soils from 28 urban parks in Guangzhou were investigated, and the health risks posed to humans were evaluated. The descending order of total heavy metal concentrations was Fe > Mn > Pb > Zn > Cu > Cr > Ni > Cd, but Cd showed the highest percentage bioaccessibility (75.96%). Principal component analysis showed that Grouped Cd, Pb, Cr, Ni, Cu and Zn, and grouped Cr and Mn could be controlled two different types of human sources. Whereas, Ni and Fe were controlled by both anthropogenic and natural sources. The carcinogenic risk probabilities for Pb and Cr to children and adults were under the acceptable level (<1 × 10⁻⁴). Hazard Quotient value for each metal and Hazard Index values for all metals studied indicated no significant risk of non-carcinogenic effects to children and adults in Guangzhou urban park soils.     

Anthropogenic factors and habitat complexity influence biodiversity but wave exposure drives species turnover of a subtropical rocky inter‐tidal metacommunity

Coastal ecosystems are complex and species rich, but are vulnerable to degradation from a variety of anthropogenic activities. Nevertheless, information on inter‐tidal community composition in the Caribbean Basin and at other oceanic sites is lacking. Such information is essential to developing a more comprehensive understanding of rocky inter‐tidal systems and their responses to global change. The goals of this study were to determine the relative importance of environmental (wave power density, wave height), habitat (e.g. algal cover, slope, complexity of rock surfaces) and anthropogenic (distance to roads, population density) factors associated with the structure of local assemblages at multiple shore heights and the regional metacommunity of mobile invertebrates on oceanic rocky inter‐tidal habitats. Environmental characteristics associated with habitat complexity (algal cover, rock surface complexity) and human population density were most strongly associated with abundance and biodiversity of invertebrates. Species richness was positively correlated with surface complexity, but abundance was negatively correlated with both surface complexity and per cent algal cover. By contrast, abundance of invertebrates was positively correlated with human population density, and diversity was negatively correlated with human population density. Abundance of invertebrates was greatest in the mid inter‐tidal zone, whereas diversity was greatest in the lower inter‐tidal zone. Metacommunity structure was Gleasonian, but the gradient along which species turnover occurred was correlated with measures of wave exposure, rather than anthropogenic activity. Unlike in previous studies, mostly at mainland sites, human activity primarily altered dominance patterns of communities, while having relatively little effect on species richness or composition.     

Fishers’ knowledge indicates short-term temporal changes in the amount and composition of catches in the southwestern Atlantic

The scarcity of data on fish catches difficult management of small-scale fisheries in developing countries. This study applies fishers’ knowledge to investigate temporal changes in the amount (biomass) and composition (major ecological categories) of fishing resources exploited by small-scale coastal fisheries in the southeastern Brazilian coast. Four hypotheses were investigated: (1) The amount of fish caught reported by fishers would decrease over time. (2) Older fishers would report higher fish catches than younger fishers. (3) Recent interviews would mention large-sized predators less often. (4) Recent interviews would mention less high valued fishing resources. Interviews with 421 fishers in 36 communities in the southeastern Brazilian coast were analyzed, covering a time span of 14 years, from 1995 to 2009. The hypothesis 1 was confirmed, 3 was partially confirmed, while 2 and 4 were not confirmed. Fishers’ age was unrelated to all variables. The results from fishers’ interviews indicated the temporal trends of: (1) a decrease in the biomass of fish caught; (2) an increase in the occurrence of smaller fish and invertebrates in the catch; (3) an increase of high value fishing resources; and (4) maintenance of large predators. The first two indicators suggest excessive fishing, but the later indicators (3 and 4) suggest that the socioecological system of the southeastern Brazilian coast had not yet undergone major ecological shifts.     

反渗透海水淡化技术现状和展望

反渗透膜技术于20世纪60年代取得突破性进展,促使反渗透海水淡化在近50年间高速发展,淡化产能自20世纪90年代起激增.海水反渗透(SWRO)淡化已成为目前投资最省、成本最低的利用海水制备饮用水的过程.文中主要对海水反渗透淡化的发展状况进行了介绍,如膜和组件的改进,关键设备高压泵和能量回收装置效率的提高,多种工艺过程的不断发展,包括预处理和后处理的新工艺,以及对环境的影响和相应对策等.反渗透技术的发展也推动了其他膜分离技术的进步,并扩展其应用领域.预计在不久的将来,膜技术在海水淡化和水再利用、扩大和保护水资源、循环经济、清洁生产、改造传统产业、节能减排及提高人民生活水平等方面发挥的作用会越来越显著.     

1980—2018年黄河上游气候变化及其对生态植被和径流量的影响

黄河上游是黄河流域最重要的水源涵养地和产流区,对黄河流域的水资源安全、生态环境和粮食安全有决定性的意义。近年来在西北地区气候暖湿化的背景下,黄河上游气候生态水文等问题受到了各方的高度关注。本文利用卫星遥感数据、格点融合数据和水文监测数据,分析了黄河上游气候的多尺度变化特征及其对植被和径流量的影响。结果表明：1）1980-2018年黄河上游暖湿化趋势呈现全区域较一致的气候特征,温度增加率为0.023℃/a,降水增加率为1.09 mm/a,但同时又存在明显的区域差异性,湟水流域至甘肃中部降水增加最显著,宁蒙荒漠地带增温趋势最明显,2000年以来整个黄河上游降水明显增加。2000年后汇流区与流径区的蒸散发明显增加,但源头区南部波动减少。2）当前的暖湿化有利于黄河上游植被生长,1999年以来汇流区和源头区部分区域的植被增加率达到0.04/（10 a）;从长期趋势看,源头区、汇流区植被指数与上年降水呈显著正相关关系,而流径区植被指数与当年降水相关性显著;降水对黄河上游流域植被具有明显的改善作用,而温度对其影响较复杂,各区域不同的植被类型是导致降水、温度、蒸散影响存在差异的可能原因。3）1980-2018年唐乃亥站和兰州站的年径流量均呈减少趋势,但1998年以来两站的年径流量明显增加,兰州站年径流量的增加率是唐乃亥站的近3倍。长期趋势表明,唐乃亥站年径流量与当年降水呈显著正相关关系,兰州站年径流量与当年降水、蒸散的相关系数均明显低于唐乃亥站;从年际波动看,降水是决定年径流量的最主要影响因子,而生态植被、冻土退化、水储量变化及社会活动等因素对径流量的影响也不容忽视。该研究为科学应对黄河上游生态保护及实现黄河流域高质量发展提供了参考依据。