云南宁蒗地震应急对策与探讨

0引言1998年8月至2000年1月在云南省丽江地区宁蒗县境内先后发生13次4~6.2级地震。这一组强震事件前,丽江行署地震局前方工作组、宁蒗县地震局根据多年的预报经验两次向中国地震局和省地震局填报了临震预报卡,准确判定了各个阶段的震情发展趋势,较成功地实现了对这组地震事件的临震预报。与此同时,向丽江地委、行署、宁蒗县委、县政府等明确提出了地震应急对策措施和建议。震前行署地震局前方工作组到极震区的烂泥箐乡开展了防震减灾科普知识宣传活动,为地方政府和震区的人民群众在震前及时实施各项有效的防震减灾措施奠定了基础,对减少灾区…     

Landslide hazard in the Nebrodi Mountains (Northeastern Sicily)

The eastern sector of the Nebrodi Mountains (NE Sicily), a part of the Apenninic-Maghrebian orogenic chain, is characterized by an high landslide hazard. The village of S. Domenica Vittoria, which lies in the area, has been particularly affected by various landslide phenomena, with resulting damage to buildings and infrastructure.The rocks outcropping in the area belong to the Cretaceous Monte Soro Flysch; they consist of an alternation of argillaceous and calcareous beds at the base and argillaceous and quartzarenitic beds at the top. The lithotechnical characteristics of the formation and the steepness of the slopes in the area lead to an elevated instability, as testified by the widespread occurrence of sub-vertical arcuate cliffs (landslide scarps) and sub-horizontal areas (landslide terraces), typical of a landslide-controlled morphology. From a kinematics point of view, the observed phenomena can be referred to multiple rotational slides, flows, and complex landslides, often with a retrogressive development and enlargement. Triggering causes lie principally in the intense rainfalls that determine the decay of the geomechanical properties of the terrain and supply discontinuos groundwater circulation that is evident in seasonal springs. Human activity, such as the construction of roads and buildings on steep slopes and dispersal of water from supply systems and sewers has a significant impact as well.Due to the instability of the area, expansion of the village, which is already limited by the morphological conditions, is made difficult by the high hazard level, especially in the areas at higher elevations, where the principal landslide scarps are located, and even more on the rims of the scarps. Considering the high hazard level, S. Domenica Vittoria has been inserted by the National Geological Service among the sites in Sicily to be monitored by means of a GPS network. The survey carried out along the entire slope hosting the village has furnished the base for geological and geomorphological knowledge needed for the planning of the network, to identify the areas at landslide risk, where parts of the village lie, including the areas of expansion of the village, the main roads, and a portion of the Favoscuro river bed.     

A size classification for debris flows

A 10-fold classification for debris flow size is proposed based on total volume, peak discharge and area inundated by debris. Size classes can be used for regional overview studies where detailed site investigations are either unnecessary, too costly or where the highest hazard and risk creeks need to be identified for further study. They are also useful to compare the regional impact between affected areas and the effects of rainstorms, and they allow lay-people to obtain an understanding of debris flow magnitude and consequences. Finally, different size classes allow the estimation of travel times to points of interest based on empirically derived equations. It is proposed that agencies concerned with debris flows should establish a documentation of debris flow size according to this classification, which serves as a data base for hazard and risk planning.     

Knowing wildfire risk: Scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria,Australia

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between ‘more science’ and ‘less uncertainty,’ this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation—such as next generation modelling—raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.     

Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy

This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanisms, such as technology lock-ins, arising from multi-agent interactions) and agent heterogeneity (e.g. differences in consumer and investment behaviour arising from income stratification). We first characterise the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers and its implications for investment decision-makers. We then identify five shortcomings in the equilibrium and optimisation-based approaches most frequently used to inform sustainability policy: (i) their normative, optimisation-based nature, (ii) their unrealistic reliance on the full-rationality of agents, (iii) their inability to account for mutual influences among agents (multi-agent interactions) and capture related self-reinforcing (positive feedback) processes, (iv) their inability to represent multiple solutions and path-dependency, and (v) their inability to properly account for agent heterogeneity. The aim of this article is to introduce an alternative modelling approach based on complexity dynamics and agent heterogeneity, and explore its use in four key areas of sustainability policy, namely (1) technology adoption and diffusion, (2) macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon policies, (3) interactions between the socio-economic system and the natural environment, and (4) the anticipation of policy outcomes. The practical relevance of the proposed methodology is subsequently discussed by reference to four specific applications relating to each of the above areas: the diffusion of transport technology, the impact of low-carbon investment on income and employment, the management of cascading uncertainties, and the cross-sectoral impact of biofuels policies. In conclusion, the article calls for a fundamental methodological shift aligning the modelling of the socio-economic system with that of the climatic system, for a combined and realistic understanding of the impact of sustainability policies.     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.     

不同覆盖措施对高寒地区剥离的草皮块堆放温湿度及成活的影响

重大工程建设会扰动高寒草地,法规要求扰动区草皮层应予以剥离,待工程建设后再用于恢复原生植被,当前对剥离草皮堆放成活的影响研究较少。试验设计遮阳网与穿孔膜两种覆盖条件,探讨分析其对剥离的草皮块堆放与铺植利用后土壤温湿度及草皮块返青覆盖度的影响,研究结果表明：遮阳网覆盖堆体较自然地表日均土壤温度显著降低,同时各深度层极大延长冻结期,降水对土壤水分的补充效应延后,并造成堆放期水分大量损失;穿孔膜覆盖堆体较自然地表提高了土壤温度,阻碍了降水对土壤水分的补充,并造成堆放后土壤吸持水能力降低。遮阳网覆盖的草皮块返青覆盖度显著高于穿孔膜覆盖的返青覆盖度,堆放期日平均土壤温度>0 ℃的堆放日数与草皮块返青覆盖度的线性拟合较好。工程建设中应尽量缩短堆放时长,采用透水透气类覆盖材料,增加土壤与空气热量交换,以维持更长的冻结期,并适时补充水分,提高草皮块铺植的恢复成效。     

岩溶坝基帷幕灌浆高注浆量控制措施与效果分析

帷幕灌浆是坝基防渗处理的一种常用技术手段,而岩溶地区因其岩溶发育致使岩溶裂隙和通道纵横交错,且难以获取其规律性,灌浆过程中往往会出现注浆量偏高的现象。为了能够既有效控制帷幕灌浆成本,又确保帷幕灌浆施工质量,就需要采用科学、合理、可靠的施工技术措施和手段,对高注浆量的情况进行重点控制和改进。本文结合某水电站岩溶坝基帷幕灌浆中突出的高注浆量现象,通过有针对性地从技术措施和控制手段等方面的综合探索与应用,最终达到了坝基防渗的目的,并最大限度地节约了帷幕灌浆的时间,有效控制了高材料消耗所带来的高成本问题,为类似项目的帷幕灌浆积累了一定的经验。