罗源湾船舶溢油风险评价分析

基于罗源湾远期油轮的发展预测,运用概率与数理统计方法计算出罗源湾海域未来 S 年中发生船舶溢油事故的概率基础值为 0.361×10-4/S,进而对罗源湾船舶溢油风险进行预测评价,结果显示:罗源湾海域船舶溢油概率约为每 10 a 一次,每次产生的溢油量约为 57.3 t 原油,经过一个潮周期,油膜面积理论估算值为 0.64 km2.针对罗源湾海域的实际情况,还提出了相应的风险防范措施.     

湘江长沙段有螺洲滩不同灭螺措施效果评价

为了全面评价和考核湘江长沙段各洲滩近几年来采取的不同灭螺措施对洲滩钉螺(Oncomelania hu-pensis)螺情的影响,采用以系统抽样结合环境抽查的查螺方法,2003～2008年对湘江长沙段20个有螺洲滩进行了跟踪调查.结果表明,2008年与2003年相比,活螺洲滩数、有螺框出现率、钉螺平均密度和活螺率分别下降了40.00%,99.10%,99.74%,51.09%.经统计学处理,各洲滩有螺框出现率(Z=91.560 2,P<0.01)、活螺率(Z=65.133 2,P<0.01)不相同,但年度下降趋势明显.在20个有螺洲滩中,有感染性钉螺分布的洲滩5个,占有螺洲滩总数的25.00%;有感染性钉螺分布的洲滩逐年减少,感染性钉螺的平均密度和感染率逐年降低,2007～2008年所有洲滩无感染性钉螺分布.湘江长沙段有螺洲滩采取的各种防治措施中,药物与环改灭螺相结合的效果远好于单纯的药物灭螺.各种环改灭螺措施,又以抬洲降滩、翻耕垦种的灭螺效果更持久,更彻底.     

Landslide hazard zonation mapping and comparative analysis of hazard zonation maps

Landslide hazard zonation mapping at regional level of a large area provides a broad trend of landslide potential zones. A macro level landslide hazard zonation for a small area may provide a better insight into the landslide hazards. The main objective of the present work was to carry out macro landslide hazard zonation mapping on 1：50,000 scale in an area where regional level zonation mapping was conducted earlier. In the previous work the regional landslide hazard zonation maps of Srinagar- Rudraprayag area of Garhwal Himalaya in the state of Uttarakhand were prepared using subjective and objective approaches. In the present work the landslide hazard zonation mapping at macro level was carried out in a small area using a Landslide Hazard Evaluation Factor rating scheme. The hazard zonation map produced by using this technique classifies the area into relative hazard classes in which the high hazard zones well correspond with high frequency of landslides. The results of this map when compared with the regional zonation maps prepared earlier show that application of the present technique identified more details of the hazard zones, which are broadly shown in the earlier zonation maps.     

Mitigation of Ice-Induced Vibrations for Offshore Platforms Using Tuned Mass Damper

The problems of ice-induced vibration have been noticed and concerned since the 1960s, but it has not been well resolved. One reason is that the dynamic interaction between ice and structure is so complicated that practical ice force model has not been developed. The recent full-scale tests conducted on jacket platforms in the Bohai Sea presented that ice could cause intense vibrations which endanger the facilities on the deck and make discomfort for the crew. In this paper, the strategy of mitigation of ice-induced offshore structure vibration is discussed. Based on field observations and understanding of the interaction between ice and structure, the absorption mitigation method to suppress ice-induced vibration is presented. The numerical simulations were conducted for a simplified model of platform attached with a Tuned Mass Danlper （TMD） under ice force function and ice force time history. The simulation results show that TMD can fa- vorably reduce ice-induced vibrations, therefore, it can be considered to be an alternative approach to utilize. Finally, the application possibilities of utilizing TMDs on other miniature offshore structures in ice-covered areas of marginal oil fields are discussed.     

渤海莱州湾的富营养化及其研究

通过对多年监测资料的总结、阐述了渤海莱州湾无要氮逐年上升的变化规律及无机氮各组成成分在海域水质环境评价中的指标作用,说明了莱州湾富营养化的程度、范围、形成原因、主要污染源及其对渔业的危害。提出了从渔业自身着手开展生态治理工程,调整生态结构,是改善渔业环境、恢复水产资源重要途径的对策和建议。     

象山皇城海滩稳定性分析与防护对策

以浙江岬湾砂质海岸象山皇城海滩为例,运用抛物线模型,分析得出皇城海滩的冲淤演化动态,并通过历史岸线形态对比探讨皇城海塘对其的影响,最终提出防止海岸侵蚀的对策。研究结果表明,皇城海滩北部有一定的侵蚀,其平面形态还未达到静态平衡,处于不稳定状态;皇城海滩北段海塘修建得过于靠海,致使海滩最重要的泥沙补给源——后滨沙丘被阻断,甚至消失,同时大潮水位可直接淹没海塘堤脚,加上海塘前为近破波,滩面水流和泥沙运动剧烈,最终导致堤前滩面的冲刷。基于此,防止海岸侵蚀的最佳对策是在拆除、重建海滩北部部分海塘后再进行适当的海滩养护。通过对皇城海滩的稳定性研究,了解海塘建设的影响,可为浙江岬湾海滩资源的合理开发、海岸防护工程建设提供一定的科学依据。     

Climate Warming Mitigation from Nationally Determined Contributions

Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions(NDCs) to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement. However, the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly considered in the countries’ decision-making process. In this study, we evaluate the global temperature slowdown of the NDC scenario(?T =0.6°C) and attribute the global temperature slowdown to certain regions of the world with a compact earth system model.Considering reductions ...     

A review of the climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf hurricanes for wind, wave, and surge hazard estimation

The climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are presented, focusing on the basic parameters needed for accurately determining the structure and intensity of hurricanes for ocean response models. These include the maximum sustained wind, radius of maximum winds, the Holland-B parameter, the peripheral or far-field pressure, the surface roughness and coefficient of drag, and the central pressure for historical hurricanes in the Gulf.Despite evidence of a slight increase in the annual number of named storms over the past 50 years, presently there is no statistically significant trend in tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the long-term variability of tropical cyclones in the Gulf reflects the observed variability in the Atlantic basin as a whole. Analyses of hurricane winds from multiple sources suggest the presence of a bias toward overestimating the strength of winds in the HURDAT dataset from 7% to 15%. Results presented comparing HURDAT with other sources also show an overestimation of intensity at landfall, with an estimated bias of ~10%.Finally, a review of recent studies has shown that hurricane frequencies and intensities appear to vary on a much more localized scale than previously believed. This exacerbates the sampling problem for accurate characterization of hurricane parameters for design and operational applications.     

厦门同安湾鳄鱼屿海岸侵蚀与防护对策

在2009年3月对鳄鱼海岸线测量的基础上,利用ArcGIS软件分析比较了现有海岸线与厦门市集美区地形图（1988年版,图号：7-50-129甲-）中鳄鱼屿海岸线位置的变化.结果表明21a来,鳄鱼屿海岸最大侵蚀率为2.0 m/a,东南侧最大侵蚀宽度达42 m,侵蚀总面积达14 000 m2;其东北侧海岸侵蚀后退约35 m,侵蚀总面积达4 100 m2;其西北侧海岸最大侵蚀宽度达30 m,侵蚀面积达12 000 m2.文中就厦门市鳄鱼屿海岸侵蚀的成因进行了分析,提出了工程防护、人工补沙、红树林修复以及加强海岛及其周边海域资源综合管理等方面的防护对策.这可为我国其他无居民海岛的海岸侵蚀防护提供经验借鉴.     

一次雷击事故成因分析及其防御措施

通过对2007年8月7日钦州市某制药厂综合楼遭受一次严重的雷击事故的成因分析,找出其存在的问题和误区,并针对发现的问题提出有效的整改防御措施。