Efficient risk assessment of lifeline networks under spatially correlated ground motions using selective recursive decomposition algorithm

For effective hazard mitigation planning and prompt-but-prudent post-disaster responses, it is essential to evaluate the reliability of infrastructure networks accurately and efficiently. A nonsimulation-based algorithm, termed as a recursive decomposition algorithm (RDA), was recently proposed to identify disjoint cut sets and link sets and to compute the network reliability. This paper introduces a ‘selective’ RDA, which preferentially identifies critical disjoint cut sets and link sets to calculate the probabilities of network disconnection events with a significantly reduced number of identified sets. To this end, the original RDA is improved by replacing the shortest path algorithm with an algorithm that identifies the most reliable path, and by using a graph decomposition scheme based on the probabilities associated with the subgraphs. The critical sets identified by the algorithm are also used to compute conditional probability-based importance measures that quantify the relative importance of network components by their contributions to network disconnection events. This paper also introduces a risk assessment framework for lifeline networks based on the use of the selective RDA, which can consider both interevent and intraevent uncertainties of spatially correlated ground motions. The risk assessment framework and the selective RDA are demonstrated by a hypothetical network example, and the gas and water transmission networks of Shelby County in Tennessee, USA. The examples show that the proposed framework and the selective RDA greatly improve efficiency of risk assessment of complex lifeline networks, which are characterized by a large number of components, complex network topology, and statistical dependence between component failures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

日本海域9.0级地震的深刻启示与防灾减灾对策

从日本成功的防震减灾经验中受到启示,通过详细分析日本的救灾体系、防灾减灾教育、抗震标准、灾区人口密度和应对福岛核电站问题的相关措施,提出目前我国在这些方面存在的主要问题及应对策略。     

Ground fissure hazards in USA and China

IntroductionGround fissures are very popular each surface phenomena showing the discolltinue or broken of the earth surface. Usually, they occur accompanying with other geological hazards. Thereare many kinds of ground fissures: tectonic fissures, including fault fissures, eathquake fissures,volcanic fissures; slip-collapse fissures, including landslide fissures, mining fissures. Ground fissures have long history in China. The earliest ground fissures were recorded aboUt five thousandyears a…     

浅谈《防震减灾法》在河北省贯彻执行中的问题及对策

从贯彻实施防震减灾法律法规的实践入手,针对《防震减灾法》在河北省贯彻实施过程中存在的问题,进行分析探讨,提出了解决的对策,目的在于更进一步促进防震减灾工作的深入开展。     

浅基础水平场地砂土液化危害性评价

分析了《建筑抗震设计规范》中砂土液化危害性评价方法的不足,通过确立液化土层在不同震害模式情况下的液化震陷计算值,建立了以震陷值S为指标的浅基础水平场地地基液化危害性评价等级,得到了其评价程序.     

论减轻自然灾害工作

本文概述自然灾害的各类及其危害性，分析自然灾害的共同特点，讨论减轻灾害的意义，文中指出提高防灾意识，加强灾害预防预报，制定减灾计划，建立减灾工作体系，开展群众防灾教育和培养专业及业余防灾人员是当前减灾工作的主要任务。     

地震作用下双薄壁高墩刚构桥桥台处的碰撞效应及减碰措施

针对双薄臂高墩连续刚构桥两侧桥台处主梁与背墙的碰撞现象,基于桥台-背土作用简化模型和Kelvin碰撞模型,采用非线性时程法研究碰撞对双薄臂墩地震剪力、弯矩、曲率和位移,以及支座纵向变形的影响。提出可牺牲背墙、阻尼器、加强型横系梁等三种减碰措施,并对比分析其减碰效果。研究表明:碰撞会显著增大高墩的地震内力和曲率响应,降低墩顶位移和支座的纵向变形;碰撞刚度的变化对碰撞效应的影响在20%以内;可牺牲背墙和阻尼器两种减碰措施均可大幅降低桥墩的地震内力和曲率,使其接近不考虑碰撞时的状态,阻尼器同时还可以保护支座不超过容许变形,而可牺牲背墙则会导致支座的地震破坏;加强型横系梁不能发挥减碰作用,反而会增大桥墩的地震响应。     

国家安全发展示范城市建设的震灾预防对策研究

我国地震多、强度大、分布广,强地震的现实危害和潜在威胁是我国城市安全发展所面临的重大挑战。国内外城市地震灾害惨痛经验表明,震灾预防能力建设不足的城市往往在强震中毁于一旦。实现我国城市安全可持续发展,必须高度重视和持续推进城市震灾预防能力建设,切实防控和消除地震灾害风险。本文在深入分析城市地震灾害影响因素的基础上,从震灾预防能力建设、城市地震灾害风险防控工作、法规及技术标准和评价体系等方面入手,提出了进一步加强城市震灾预防能力建设的对策建议。     

Large, moderate, small earthquakes and seismic fortification criterion

IntroductionAccordingtoEarthquakeResistanceandDisasterReductionLawforthePeoplesRepublicofChina,twomethodsareadoptedforseismicdesignoftheconstructionprojectsinChina.Forkeyprojectsandtheprojectseasytocauseserioussecondarydisasters,seismicsafetyevaluationsmustbecarriedout.Andbasedontheresults,seismicfortificationstandardsaredeterminedtomakeseismicdesign.Forgeneralindustrialandcivilbuildings,seismicdesignsarecarriedoutaccordingtotheseismicfortificationstandardsstipulatedbyseismiczonationmap(Ch…     

Greenhouse gas emission mitigation plan for the State of Israel: strategies,incentives and reporting

In the context of the negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its accompanying Kyoto Protocol, participating nations have recognized the need for formulating Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). These NAMAs allow countries to take into account their national circumstances and to construct measures to mitigate GHG emissions across economic sectors. Israel has declared to the UN that it would strive to reduce its GHG emissions by 20% in the year 2020 relative to a ‘business as usual' scenario. With its growing population and an expanding economy, the national GHG mitigation plan was developed to draw a course for steering the Israeli economy into a low-carbon future while accommodating continued economic growth. The article describes relevant policy measures, designed to aid in the implementation of the plan and compares them with measures being undertaken by different countries. Emphasis is placed on analysing the progress to date, opportunities and barriers to attaining the ultimate GHG emissions reduction goals. The objective of this article is to contribute to the knowledge base of effective approaches for GHG emissions reduction. We emphasize the integrated approach of planning and implementation that could be especially useful for developing countries or countries with economies in transition, as well as for developed countries. Yet, in the article we argue that NAMAs’ success hinges on structured tracking of progress according to emerging global consensus standards such as the GHG Protocol Mitigation Goals Standard.

Policy relevance:

The study is consistent with the NAMA concept, enabling a country to adopt a ‘climate action plan’ that contributes to its sustainable development, while enabled by technology and being fiscally sound.

The analysis shows that although NAMAs have been framed in terms of projects, policies, and goals, current methodologies allow only the calculation of emission reductions that can be attributed to distinct projects. Currently, no international guidance exists for quantifying emissions reduction from policy-based NAMAs, making it difficult to track and validate progress. This gap could be addressed by an assessment framework that we have tested, as part of a World Resources Institute pilot study for an emerging voluntary global standard.