Risk assessment strategies for the reactivation of earth flows in the Northern Apennines (Italy)

The aim of this paper is to analyze the reactivation mechanism of ancient earth flows, with a view to gleaning information that can subsequently be utilized to formulate a risk-reduction strategy. All considerations made herein are the result of direct experience and observation of actual events which have occurred over the past few decades in the Northern Apennines. Particular attention has been paid to the analysis of the evolution of landslides during actual reactivation, acknowledging a typical, recurring succession of events that precede the failure of the slope. The hazard assessment of these large landslide bodies, which are of slope scale, constitutes a thorny problem, especially in view of the inapplicability of traditional deterministic models such as limit equilibrium stability analysis. Nevertheless, a site-specific assessment of probability of reactivation of these large and ancient earth flows is fundamental to effective land-use planning.     

Landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping in Australia for land-use planning — with reference to challenges in metropolitan suburbia

This paper provides an overview of the history and current status of landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping for land-use zoning in Australia. It also describes a case study of landslide hazard mapping in a medium density, coastal, suburban residential area of metropolitan Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, with relatively steep terrain. Issues covered include identification and mapping of existing and potential landslides, and susceptibility and hazard zoning for regulatory management and land-use planning. The method involves application of the principles contained within the AGS (2000) guideline, and as updated by the AGS (2007 a,b,c,d,e) suite of guidelines.     

Development and morphometry of sinkholes in coastal plains of Apulia, southern Italy. Preliminary sinkhole susceptibility assessment

Evolution of coastlines in karst areas may be strongly controlled by dissolution processes which favour the development of surface and subsurface landforms. The generation of caves in these environments is commonly favoured by the mixing between fresh and brackish waters. The sinkholes resulting from the upward propagation of the caves may interfere with the anthropogenic environment and cause damage to human elements (property and activities). To highlight the often underestimated importance of karst phenomena in coastal areas, we have analyzed a coastal stretch of Apulia, in southern Italy. The study area, covering an extension of about 6 km², is situated in the Ionian coast, and presents several interesting karst landforms that are generally connected to caves. Tens of sinkholes were mapped through field surveys, multi-year aerial-photographs (dating back to the 1940s) and archival research. We have performed a morphometric analysis of the sinkholes. The analysis describes the main parameters of the sinkholes (area, length, width, and depth), and the control exerted by the main discontinuity systems in the area. The detrimental effects derived from interaction between human environment and these karst landforms is also under consideration. A sinkhole susceptibility map, which may provide useful information for planners, developers and the insurance industry has eventually been produced through application of a decision tree model.     

National flood discharge mapping in Austria

This article presents the approach and the results of a study in which 30, 100 and 200 year return period flood discharges were estimated for 26,000 km of Austrian streams. Three guiding principles were adopted: combination of automatic methods and manual assessments by hydrologists to allow speedy processing and account for the local hydrological situation; combination of various sources of information including flood peak samples, rainfall data, runoff coefficients and historical flood data; and involvement of the Hydrographic Services to increase the accuracy and enhance the acceptance of results. The flood discharges for ungauged catchments were estimated by the Top-kriging approach with manual adjustment to the local flood characteristics. The adopted combination approach proved to be very efficient both in terms of the project time required and in terms of the accuracy and acceptability of the estimated flood discharges of given return periods.     

Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.     

海底管道开沟机械的技术经济性能评定与选型

本文在对水下管道开沟机械的需求市场、实际应用和研制开发动向作深入调研的基础上，选择水下管道开沟机械特有的技术先进性、适用性、安全可靠性以及经济性评价指标，构造评价模型，对水下管道施工作业中广为应用的水力冲射开沟机械、海底管道犁、机械开沟机和土壤液化法埋管设备及其机型的技术经济性能作了较为详尽地分析对比及综合评价。在此基础上，笔者提出了水下管道开沟机械的一般选型原则和对我国海底管道开沟机械研究开发工     

水库鱼产力评价标准与模式的研究

本文在总结国内外已有成果的基础上,运用专家系统和灰色统计方法,初步建立了一套水库鱼产力评价的指标体系、指标权重体系和指标标准体系,首次给出了比较系统和具有普适意义的评价方案;并运用模糊数学方法建立了综合定量评价模式,从而在很大程度上解决了以往评价中由于多指标重迭、交错造成的难判、误判问题,为水库渔业资源的合理开发利用提供了比较科学的依据。     

The petroleum evaluation of a tectonically complex area: The western margin of the Southeast Basin (France)

The Southeast Basin of France is the thickest onshore French sedimentary basin which contains locally as much as 10 km of Mesozoic-Cenozoic sediment. Basin development occurred in several stages between late Carboniferous and late Cretaceous times. Partial tectonic inversion took place during two compressive events, the so-called ‘Pyrenean’ and ‘Alpine’ phases of late Cretaceous-early Tertiary and late Tertiary ages respectively. They are separated by an intervening stretching event of Oligocene age, which further south resulted in the opening of the western Mediterranean oceanic basin. As a result of this complex tectonic history, structural traps were difficult to image on the seismic data shot during the first phase of exploration prior to 1980. Oil and gas natural seeps, and shows in several wells, indicate that some petroleum systems are, or have been active, at least in some places.The present erosional western margin of the basin is more or less superimposed on the initial Triassic-Jurassic margin. Margin subsidence and Tertiary inversion are discussed using regional sections on which the polyphase history of the entire basin is well shown. These sections are located on three major segments where the Mesozoic margin is either partly preserved (Ardèche), or has been partly inverted in late Tertiary times (Vercors-Chartreuse), or has been completely inverted in early Tertiary times (Corbières-eastern Pyrenees). 1-D ‘Genex’ basin modelling on the Ardèche segment, and 2-D ‘Thrustpack’ structural-maturity modelling in the Vercors-Chartreuse segment are used to further assess the remaining petroleum plays.