海原地震滑坡及其分布特征探讨

１９２０年海原地区发生的一次８．５级大地震，诱发了大量的滑坡灾害。据野外调查和航片判读资料分析了海原地震滑坡形成的基本条件，探讨了影响海原地震滑坡分布的主要因素。研究结果对滑坡灾害的预测有一定意义。     

“You can't see them from sitting here”: Evaluating beach user understanding of a rip current warning sign

Rip current warning signs complement lifeguards and flags on many beaches globally to alert beach users to the danger of rip currents and to inform beach users about how to identify and avoid rip currents. Although rip current warning signs, such as the sign distributed by the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are an important part of any beach safety program, their effectiveness is unknown. Moreover, we do not know how beach users respond to or perceive the rip-current warnings represented graphically and textually. Here we report on a spatially and temporally randomized survey of 392 beach users from three heavily frequented public beaches in Texas (Galveston, Port Aransas, and Corpus Christi) at the height of the summer beach season in 2012. Beach users were asked to respond to the rip current warning sign developed in 2003–2004 by the U.S. Rip Current Task Force. Nearly half of respondents did not notice any warning sign when approaching the beach. When prompted by enumerators with the Task Force sign, 44.5% of beach users found the sign was “helpful” or “very helpful” to their ability to identify a rip current. However, more than half of beach users had difficulty translating the rip current image into a feature observable while standing or sitting on the shore. Many beach users will respond to a warning sign showing the rip current from the perspective of place, rather than the aerial view representing the ocean as space. This realization guides our specific suggestions for improving the current NOAA warning signs.     

Work, persistence, and formative events: The geomorphic impact of landslides

Understanding the scale and frequency of physical processes that act upon and form the surface of the Earth is a fundamental goal of earth science. Here we determine the magnitudes of landslides that impact the landscape in terms of work, persistence, and formative events. A systematic analysis of rapid landsliding (the analysis did not consider creep and other slow semi-continuous processes) indicates that moderate-sized landslides do the most work transporting material on hillslopes. The work peak defines the moderate magnitude, and that magnitude varies based on local physiography and climate. Landslides that form the work peak are distinct from catastrophic landslides that are themselves formative and system resetting. The persistence time for debris slides/debris flows (P_DS) and rock slides/rock avalanches (P_RS) is calculated over six orders of magnitude. We consider an event catastrophic when it persists in the landscape, as described by a persistence ratio (P_F), an order of magnitude longer than the population of landslides that form the work peak.     

红河干流大黑公水电站地质灾害危险性分析

大黑公水电站坝址及库区处于红河深大断裂带，面临诸多工程地质灾害地质问题，把研究区分为大、中、小三级5个不同地质灾害危险性区段，研究为电站建设预可研阶段工作提供指导性意见。     

Landslides in the Mailuu-Suu Valley, Kyrgyzstan—Hazards and Impacts

Mailuu-Suu is a former uranium mining area in Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia) at the northern border of the Fergana Basin. This region is particularly prone to landslide hazards and, during the last 50 years, has experienced severe landslide disasters in the vicinity of numerous nuclear waste tailing dams. Due to its critical situation, the Mailuu-Suu region was and still is the target area for several risk assessment projects. This paper provides a brief review of previous studies, past landslide events and a discussion on possible future risk scenarios. Various aspects of landslide hazard and related impacts in the Mailuu-Suu Valley are analyzed in detail: landslide susceptibility, historical evolution of landslide activity, size-frequency relationship, river damming and flooding as well as impacts on inhabited areas and nuclear waste storage zones. The study was carried out with standard remote sensing tools for the processing of satellite imagery and the construction of digital elevation models (DEMs). The processed inputs were combined on a GIS platform with digital landslide distribution maps of 1962, 1977, and 2003, digitized geological and geographic maps, and information from landslide monitoring and geophysical investigation.As a result, various types of landslide susceptibility maps based on conditional analysis (CA) are presented as well as predictions of future landslide activity and related damming potential and their possible impact on the population. For some risk scenarios, remediation and prevention measures are suggested.     

四川凉山州美姑县61泥石流灾害研究

四川凉山州美姑县6.1泥石流灾害实例研究表明,该泥石流约为20年一遇的中小规模的泥石流。流域上游短历时强降雨和冰雹天气过程是这次泥石流暴发的诱因,流域内退化的生态环境和中下两岸不稳定边坡以及沟道内大量的松散堆积物为这次泥石流提供了丰富的固体物质来源。泥石流堆积物具有典型的多峰型粒度特征,且有较高的粘粒含量。巨大的泥石流漂砾、石背石现象、龟裂现象、侧积堤和龙头堆积证实了这次泥石流为粘性泥石流。危险度评价表明,采莫洛沟属于高度危险的泥石流沟,危险度为0.67;乃托沟属于中度危险的泥石流沟,危险度为0.58。风险评估结果可知,两沟都属于泥石流高风险区风险度分别为0.52和0.45。高风险区的泥石流灾害给当地的经济社会造成了严重影响并直接造成了较大的人员伤亡和财产损失。     

基于逻辑回归模型和确定性系数的崩滑流危险性区划

崩滑流是崩塌、滑坡和泥石流地质灾害的总称。本文根据逻辑回归模型和贵州省崩滑流地质灾害发生的确定性系数CF,统计贵州省内崩滑流发生概率与其影响因子之间的函数关系; 并利用GIS技术编制贵州省崩滑流地质灾害危险性区划图。首先根据影响因子子集中已发崩滑流灾害面积和影响因子子集面积来计算崩滑流地质灾害发生的确定性系数CF; 其次将灾害是否发生作为因变量,影响因子子集发生崩滑流地质灾害的确定性系数CF作为自变量,应用逻辑回归模型统计分析它们之间的函数关系; 然后利用GIS技术计算研究区内各独立属性单元发生崩滑流地质灾害的概率p,按p值10等分标准将研究区划分为10个危险性等级区,并绘制贵州省崩滑流地质灾害危险性区划图; 最后用已发崩滑流地质灾害的分布数据来检验危险性区划的效果。研究结果表明:本文根据逻辑回归模型和崩滑流地质灾害发生的确定性系数CF,将贵州省分为Ⅰ～Ⅹ的10个崩滑流地质灾害危险性等级区与实际情况基本符合,能够良好地反映贵州省境内发生崩滑流地质灾害的难易程度。     

基于灾害链效应的小秦岭乱石沟矿渣堆危险性评价

矿产开采过程中,大规模不合理的矿渣堆弃以及高强度降雨等所引发的矿渣碎屑流,对矿山的正常生产和人员安全带来了巨大的风险。由于矿渣堆普遍沿沟谷呈串珠状分布,若下级渣堆受到上级矿渣碎屑流的冲击、加载作用,其失稳起动概率及渣流量将明显增加,这种空间逐级影响所表现出的灾害链效应是矿渣碎屑流灾害作用的重要特征。以小秦岭乱石沟为例,在对研究区内矿渣堆详细调查的基础上,首先以矿渣堆高度、坡度、方量、是否堆载振动、底床坡度以及降雨汇流累积量6项指标对矿渣堆的危险性进行评价。其次,采用UBCDFLOW方法,考虑碎屑流的路径宽度、平均坡角及流动类型,估算碎屑流的滑移距离。最后,在此基础上从风险评价与预测的角度出发,综合考虑矿渣堆碎屑流的链状逐级影响,以及下级渣堆位于上级渣堆碎屑流冲击范围内的相对位置,得到灾害链效应下的矿渣堆危险性评价。计算结果表明考虑灾害链效应后,乱石沟内受碎屑流影响的矿渣堆的破坏概率明显增加,研究结果也为矿山沟谷流域矿渣堆灾害的风险评价及防治规划设计提供依据。     

Modeling of 500-year tsunamis for probabilistic design of coastal infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest

This paper describes the development of tsunami scenarios from the National Seismic Hazard Maps for design of coastal infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest. The logic tree of Cascadia earthquakes provides four 500-year rupture configurations at moment magnitude 8.8, 9.0, and 9.2 for development of probabilistic design criteria. A planar fault model describes the rupture configurations and determines the earth surface deformation for tsunami modeling. A case study of four bridge sites at Siletz Bay, Oregon illustrates the challenges in modeling of tsunamis on the Pacific Northwest coast. A nonlinear shallow-water model with a shock-capturing scheme describes tsunami propagation across the northeastern Pacific as well as barrier beach overtopping, bore formation, and detailed flow conditions at Siletz Bay. The results show strong correlation with geological evidence from the six paleotsunamis during the last 2800 years. The proposed approach allows determination of tsunami loads that are consistent with the seismic loads currently in use for design of buildings and structures.     

Factors influencing hazard management by municipalities: The case of coastal communities

As climate and anthropogenic changes increase the vulnerability of coastal areas around the world, the threat (and reality) of coastal hazards grows. These threats arise particularly at a local level, calling out for more knowledge on how to best support coastal municipalities to deal with natural and human-induced hazards. This study seeks to add to the understanding through an examination of local-level experience with hazard planning and responses carried out by coastal municipalities, producing insights on how to reduce their vulnerability and support their resilience. It explores the factors influencing coastal municipalities’ management of relevant hazards to achieve comprehensive multi-hazard risk reduction and adaptation. We do so through a national survey of Canada’s coastal municipalities which assessed experience with hazards, risk perception, hazard prioritization, and the extent and specifics of hazard responses. We characterize the determinants of coastal municipalities’ behaviour and intervening factors, and conduct regression analyses to explain coastal municipalities’ risk perception, hazard prioritization, implementation of management processes for dealing with hazards, and the number of implemented or planned hazard responses. Six key factors were identified that influence hazard responses at the municipal level: experience with hazards; competing priorities; hazard visibility; access to resources (financial and technical capacity) and governance (institutional setting and political capacity). We conclude that municipal hazard responses can be reinforced by increasing the effectiveness of risk communication, promoting participatory processes, providing support for municipalities’ identified needs and priorities, ensuring municipalities have access to relevant information and expertise, and implementing integrated coastal governance and management.