A Neogene giant landslide in Tarapacá, northern Chile: A signal of instability of the westernmost Altiplano and palaeoseismicity effects

Giant landslides, which usually have volumes up to several tens of km³, tend to be related to mountainous reliefs such as fault scarps or thrust fronts. The western flank of the Precordillera in southern Peru and northern Chile is characterized by the presence of such mega-landslides. A good example is the Latagualla Landslide (19°15′S), composed of ~ 5.4 km³ of Miocene ignimbritic rock blocks located next to the Moquella Flexure, a structure resulting from the propagation of a west-vergent thrust blind fault that borders the Precordillera of the Central Depression. The landslide mass is very well preserved, allowing reconstitution of its movement and evolution in three main stages. The geomorphology of the landslide indicates that it preceded the incision of the present-day valleys during the late Miocene. Given the local geomorphological conditions 8–9 Ma ago (morphology, slopes and probably a high water table), large-magnitude earthquakes could have provided destabilization forces enough to cause the landslide. On the other hand, present seismic forces would not be sufficient to trigger such landslides; therefore the hazard related to them in the region is low.     

Magnitude–frequency relationships of debris flows and debris avalanches in relation to slope relief

Probability of occurrence, hazard intensity and encounter probability are key parameters in the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of landslides. All are strongly dependent on magnitude of the landslides. As a result, magnitude–frequency analysis should be a part of QRA. Deriving representative magnitude–frequency relationships for debris avalanches and debris flows, however, is difficult. One key problem is illustrated with the example of a unique database from the coastal region of British Columbia, Canada, which was compiled entirely from detailed ground investigations. The magnitude of debris avalanches and debris flows is not an independent statistical quantity, but a function of the scale of a given slope, as characterized by the slope length. Thus, attempting to derive probability and magnitude for a given location or sub-region from a regionally-derived magnitude–frequency curve may lead to incorrect predictions. The same problem is pertinent to the application of the same approach to any type of landslide in which the largest combined dimension of the source volume (including entrainment) is of the same order as the length of the slope. It is recommended that greater emphasis be placed on site-specific geological observations, at the expense of generalized statistics.     

雾的标准化危险性指数计算方法及其应用

在有雾的天气下经常发生几百辆车连续追尾碰撞的恶性交通事故,因此为了做好交通安全工作有必要开展雾的风险分析研究。在考虑雾的出现频率、持续时间和能见度3个参数的基础上,通过改进雾的危险性指数（FHI）方法,得出了适合我国气象标准的雾的标准化危险性指数(NFHI)的计算方法。为了使危险性指数适应雾的数值预报产品的应用,进一步改进了雾的标准化危险性指数的形式,提出了适合数值预测模式的雾的标准化危险性指数。最后结合京津塘高速公路沿线5个国家气象站36 a的雾的观测数据,利用NFI方法计算得出了4个季节的雾的危险性等级,并使用数值预报结果计算了不同地点的雾的标准化危险性指数。利用该指数计算方法可以通过比较不同路径危险性的大小进行最佳路径的选择,为交通安全提供科学参考。     

2013年3月11日阿图什5．2级地震灾害损失评估和房屋震害特征分析

2013年3月11日新疆阿图什发生慨5．2地震,震中烈度Ⅵ度,地震没有造成人员伤亡,个别民宅倒塌,造成直接经济损失2397万元。结合此次地震考察评估工作,分析此次地震造成经济损失的震害原因。从房屋破坏、房屋建筑场地条件和抗震安居工程三点,描述了此次地震的震害特征,与新疆伽师、莎车等具有相同地质条件的地区进行震后对比,并结合2009年4月22日发生的新疆阿图什Ms5．0地震,提出了对此次地震的认识与建议。     

Structural geomorphology,active faulting and slope deformations in the epicentre area of the MW 7.0, 1857, Southern Italy earthquake

In tectonically active domains, fault propagation processes are revealed by landforms. A characteristic morphological feature of exposed active faults is the occurrence of triangular facets. Triangle-shaped landforms morphologically similar to fault-related triangular facets result from erosion of moderately-to-steeply dipping strata or layered successions along fold limbs and are known as flatirons. Triangular facets and flatirons may commonly coexist in mountain chains resulting from the superposition of recent extensional faulting on inherited fold-and-thrust architecture. In these settings analysis of flatirons and triangular facets is not trivial and may result in geomorphologic misinterpretations, hence undermine the interpretations of the geological structure and related deformation history. Here we show that active fault lineaments can be discriminate by inherited morpho-structure. We present the combined results of photo-geological and field survey carried out along well-exposed triangular shaped landforms located in the seismically active Upper Agri River Valley of the Southern Apennine. We found that triangular shaped landforms develop along a major fold back-limb, the Mt. Lama western slope, making it possible to unequivocally interpret these as flatirons. Downslope, Mt. Lama back limb is affected by a large deep-sited landslide whose scarp bound the flatirons and mimics a Holocene fault scarp. This inference appears significant, since the investigated landforms were interpreted by many authors as triangular facets related to an active normal fault, located at its foot, responsible for large historical earthquakes (i.e., the 1857 earthquake). We provide new criteria to discriminate morphologic convergence in tectonically active domains, with consequences for the regional geological interpretation, and for the assessment of geological hazards.     

四川省都江堰市龙池地区泥石流危险性评价研究

汶川地震灾区震后泥石流灾害较震前活跃,对灾区泥石流危险性进行评价是灾后重建过程中合理防灾减灾的基础工作。通过研究泥石流灾害事件中的泥石流规模、泥石流沟堆积扇面积及相应的灾害损失等基础资料,提出以泥石流在泥石流沟堆积扇上的平均堆积厚度替代泥石流规模作为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法。用该方法对汶川震区都江堰市龙池镇龙溪河流域2010年"8.13"泥石流事件中的29条沟谷型泥石流进行危险性评价,评价结果中9条为高度危险,12条为中度危险,8条为低度危险。用以泥石流规模为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法进行对比评价,2种评价方法中有65.5%的泥石流的危险性评价结果一致。以泥石流沟堆积扇平均堆积厚度为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法更能突出规模对泥石流综合危险度的贡献,能更好地反映小泥石流流域和小泥石流堆积扇的泥石流在中小规模的泥石流总量下的危险程度。     

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973–2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained—to varying degrees—by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this “composite ShakeMap” with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page (). T. I. Allen and M. G. Hearne—contracted through Synergetics Incorporated.     

Probabilistic versus deterministic seismic hazard analysis: an integrated approach for siting problems

A methodology is proposed to determine design earthquakes for site-specific studies such as the siting of critical structures (power plants, waste disposals, large dams, etc.), strategic structures (fire stations, military commands, hospitals, etc.), or for seismic microzoning studies, matching the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. This goal is achieved by calculating the source contribution to hazard and the magnitude–distance deaggregation, showing that, varying the selected frequency and the level of hazard, the reference earthquakes are changed as a result. A procedure is then adopted to minimize the residuals between the uniform hazard spectrum (target motion) and the design earthquake spectrum, to provide a specific earthquake scenario encompassing all the frequencies of the target motion. Finally, some considerations on the use and the influence exerted by ground motion uncertainty (σ) on hazard deaggregation are outlined.     

20世纪十大灾难性地震(续完)

叙述了２０世纪全球１０次灾难性地震发生的时间、震级、地点、伤亡人数、建筑物遭破坏以及救灾的情况,记述了一些地震的前兆现象和经济损失。     

城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究

从危险性评价、易损性评价以及防灾减灾能力评价3个方面阐述了城市地震灾害风险评价内容.回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足.提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法.最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法.