Seismicity, deformation and seismic hazard in the western rift of Corinth: New insights from the Corinth Rift Laboratory (CRL)

This paper presents the main recent results obtained by the seismological and geophysical monitoring arrays in operation in the rift of Corinth, Greece. The Corinth Rift Laboratory (CRL) is set up near the western end of the rift, where instrumental seismicity and strain rate is highest. The seismicity is clustered between 5 and 10 km, defining an active layer, gently dipping north, on which the main normal faults, mostly dipping north, are rooting. It may be interpreted as a detachment zone, possibly related to the Phyllade thrust nappe. Young, active normal faults connecting the Aigion to the Psathopyrgos faults seem to control the spatial distribution of the microseismicity. This seismic activity is interpreted as a seismic creep from GPS measurements, which shows evidence for fast continuous slip on the deepest part on the detachment zone. Offshore, either the shallowest part of the faults is creeping, or the strain is relaxed in the shallow sediments, as inferred from the large NS strain gradient reported by GPS. The predicted subsidence of the central part of the rift is well fitted by the new continuous GPS measurements. The location of shallow earthquakes (between 5 and 3.5 km in depth) recorded on the on-shore Helike and Aigion faults are compatible with 50° and 60° mean dip angles, respectively. The offshore faults also show indirect evidence for high dip angles. This strongly differs from the low dip values reported for active faults more to the east of the rift, suggesting a significant structural or rheological change, possibly related to the hypothetical presence of the Phyllade nappe. Large seismic swarms, lasting weeks to months, seem to activate recent synrift as well as pre-rift faults. Most of the faults of the investigated area are in their latest part of cycle, so that the probability of at least one moderate to large earthquake (M = 6 to 6.7) is very high within a few decades. Furthermore, the region west to Aigion is likely to be in an accelerated state of extension, possibly 2 to 3 times its mean interseismic value. High resolution strain measurement, with a borehole dilatometer and long base hydrostatic tiltmeters, started end of 2002. A transient strain has been recorded by the dilatometer, lasting one hour, coincident with a local magnitude 3.7 earthquake. It is most probably associated with a slow slip event of magnitude around 5 ± 0.5. The pore pressure data from the 1 km deep AIG10 borehole, crossing the Aigion fault at depth, shows a 1 MPa overpressure and a large sensitivity to crustal strain changes.     

Ferguson rock slide buries California State Highway near Yosemite National Park

During spring 2006, talus from the toe area of a rock-block slide of about 800,000 m³ buried California State Highway 140, one of the main routes into heavily-visited Yosemite National Park, USA. Closure of the highway for 92 days caused business losses of about 4.8 million USD. The rock slide, composed of slate and phyllite, moved slowly downslope from April to June 2006, creating a fresh head scarp with 9–12 m of displacement. Movement of the main rock slide, a re-activation of an older slide, was triggered by an exceptionally wet spring 2006, following a very wet spring 2005. As of autumn 2006, most of the main slide appeared to be at rest, although rocks occasionally continued to fall from steep, fractured rock masses at the toe area of the slide. Future behavior of the slide is difficult to predict, but possible scenarios range from continued scattered rock fall to complete rapid failure of the entire mass. Although unlikely except under very destabilizing circumstances, a worst-case, rapid failure of the entire rock slide could extend across the Merced River, damming the river and creating a reservoir. As a temporary measure, traffic has been rerouted to the opposite side of the Merced River at about the same elevation as the buried section of Highway 140. A state-of-the-art monitoring system has been installed to detect movement in the steep talus slope, movement of the main slide mass, local strong ground motion from regional earthquakes, and sudden changes in stream levels, possibly indicating damming of the river by slide material.     

对气象致灾因子危险度诊断方法的探讨

气象灾害损失与风险大小取决于气象致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性、自然与人为防控在孕灾环境中时空配置格局及交互作用.但对于一定区域与时段而言,后两个因素相对稳定,气象致灾因子多变,其不同时空分布格局很大程度上决定了灾害的地域性及时间变化特征.对致灾因子危险性予以准确诊断是客观评估气象灾害损失与风险大小的基本前提.为此,文中提出了气象致灾因子危险度定义及点面相结合的诊断模型:(1)将危险度定义为事件致灾因子量值与风险阈值场中各级风险水平阈值之间的接近程度;(2)采用随机变量概率分布模型估计各地各种特定概率下的气象事件致灾因子量级,构建气象致灾因子风险阈值场;(3)联合空间相似和距离参量构建危险度诊断模型,以刻划事件致灾因子与各级风险阈值分布形态相似性及数值差异大小,据此计算事件致灾因子与风险阈值场中各级风险阈值的接近程度,以接近度最大为原则确定某过程致灾因子总体危险性水平等级.然后以上海地区风致灾因子危险性诊断为例,计算了上海各地不同风险水平下年最大风速阈值以及各地各级年最大风速的风险水平,构建了上海地区年最大风速的风险阈值场,结果表明:上海沿海地区的南汇、崇明、金山等地为年最大风速高值区,也是一定风险水平下的最大风速高值区,同时又是8级以上强风频发区及高危险区;相对地,本市较内陆的区域,则是年最大风速低值区,也是一定风险水平下的最大风速低值区,同时又是8级以上强风稀遇区及低危险区;一定重现期下最大风速阈值地区分布也有类似规律.最后,应用该模型对影响上海地区热带气旋及其他天气过程共30余个例作出风危险度诊断,结果表明,以1977年9月11日的7708号热带气旋风危险度最高,总体上与风险水平为8年一遇的年最大风速阈值最为接近;1986年8月27日8615号热带气旋与1983年6月3日其他天气过程个例风危险度为第2,总体接近于7年一遇年最大风速阈值;8114号与9711号热带气旋风危险度则与4年一遇年最大风速阈值最为接近;7413号、7503号、7909号、8506号热带气旋的风危险度接近3年一遇年最大风速阈值;而0509号热带气旋"麦莎"、0515号热带气旋"卡努"风危险度总体上接近于2年一遇的年最大风速阈值.其他热带气旋影响个例,其风危险度多数与重现期约2年一遇的年最大风速阈值接近.实际应用结果表明,所提出的这一点面结合的危险度的诊断方法,能较客观定量地评定气象致灾因子的危险性程度.     

地热学向何处去

Based on the State-of-the-Art of Geothermics both at home and abroad,the question of "Where to go, Geothermics" has been answered in this paper. Author suggested that the Geothermicsin the future should go to:1)the deep interior of the Earth,2) the continental area,3 ) the atmosphere,4)the energy problem,5) the mining areas, 6) the oil一gas fields and finally,7) to earthquake prediclion. With the increasing demand for energy and mineral resources and under the pressure of environmental and hazard problems, Geothermics is also being experienced a stage of revolution. There exist opportunity and challenge. We should use the opportunity and face the challenge optimistically for thefurther development of Geothermics in various aspects.     

固体废物、放射性废物处置及环境评估

随着经济建设的发展 ,人类从事的工农业生产、军事、科技等活动产生了大量的固体废物和放射性废物 ,严重污染了生态环境和人类自身的生存空间。评估、治理地质生态环境中的固体废物和放射性废物已成为当前地质工作中不容忽视的重要部分。     

Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas, USA

Landslides in the hilly terrain along the Kansas and Missouri rivers in northeastern Kansas have caused millions of dollars in property damage during the last decade. To address this problem, a statistical method called multiple logistic regression has been used to create a landslide-hazard map for Atchison, Kansas, and surrounding areas. Data included digitized geology, slopes, and landslides, manipulated using ArcView GIS. Logistic regression relates predictor variables to the occurrence or nonoccurrence of landslides within geographic cells and uses the relationship to produce a map showing the probability of future landslides, given local slopes and geologic units. Results indicated that slope is the most important variable for estimating landslide hazard in the study area. Geologic units consisting mostly of shale, siltstone, and sandstone were most susceptible to landslides. Soil type and aspect ratio were considered but excluded from the final analysis because these variables did not significantly add to the predictive power of the logistic regression. Soil types were highly correlated with the geologic units, and no significant relationships existed between landslides and slope aspect.     

GIS-based risk analysis of debris flow： an application in Sichuan, southwest China

Debris flow is a serious geologic hazard in China. It is estimated that nationally debris flows cause up to 2 billion RMB （250 million US$） in damages and 300-600 deaths and injuries annually. To mitigate debris flow hazards, it is necessary to map, model, and identify zones of debris flow hazards and vulnerability as to inform the local people about the potential risk with a geographic information system. This research presents a regional scale case study modeling debris flow risk （hazard and vulnerability） in Sichuan Province, Southwestern China. In this area, 3,290 debris flows have been identified and the spatial-temporal distribution and activity characteristics of them have been documented. Based on the available meteorological data, a Digital Elevation Model with the rate of 1：250,000 and a regional geological map, the 24-hr rainfall threshold （y） for debris flow occurrence is closely related （significant at 99% confidence level） to the index （x） defined using a geology factor （rock hardness： a） and a topographical factor （channel gradient： d） where y = 21 ＋ 10200 / x, in which x = 2.7 × e^a ＋ 1000 × d. The discipline is constructive in developing the rainfall threshold for debris flow activity in remote mountainous areas that lack data. For a given watershed, a four-level debris flow hazard map is developed by comparing the rainfall threshold to the design rainfall intensities with 50-, 20-, and 5-year average recurrence intervals, respectively. The degree of debris flow vulnerability is determined by the watershed socio-economic conditions. A four-class debris flow risk map, at the final phase of the research, is generated by combining debris flow hazards and vulnerability. With the debris flow risk assessment, the Sichuan Province is classified into the slight, moderate, severe and very severe regions, which accounts for 36%, 19%, 20% and 25% of total area respectively.