自然灾害脆弱性曲线研究进展

在全球变化与全球化背景下自然灾害风险逐年增大,灾害评估就成为风险防范的重要基础。灾害评估包括灾情估算与风险评估2个方面,而脆弱性分析是把灾害与风险研究紧密联系起来的重要桥梁。脆弱性曲线作为定量精确评估承灾体脆弱性的方法,近年来在多领域被广泛运用,成为灾情估算、风险定量分析以及风险地图编制的关键环节。从致灾因子角度综述脆弱性曲线的研究进展,重点阐述基于灾情数据、已有曲线、调查和模型的脆弱性曲线构建。研究表明脆弱性曲线构建由单曲线向多曲线库、单一参数向综合参数、单一方法向多领域综合应用发展,具有综合化和精细化的趋势。进一步开展多领域、多方法综合脆弱性曲线研究,对灾损快速评估及风险评价,防灾减灾具有重要意义。     

Developing a risk assessment model for typhoon-triggered debris flows

A methodology is developed for interactive risk assessment of physical infrastructure and spatially distributed response systems subjected to debris flows.The proposed framework is composed of three components,namely geotechnical engineering,geographical information systems and disaster management.With the integration of slope stability analysis,hazard scenario and susceptibility,geological conditions are considered as temporary static data,while meteorological conditions are treated as dynamic data with a focus on typhoons.In this research,the relevant parameters required for database building are defined,and the procedures for building the geological database and meteorological data sets are explained.Based on the concepts and data sets,Nantou and Hualien in Taiwan are used as the areas for case studies.     

The landslide response of alpine basins to post-Little Ice Age glacial thinning and retreat in southwestern British Columbia

The role of post-Little Ice Age (LIA) Neoglacial retreat on landslide activity is investigated in 19 alpine basins along the upper Lillooet River Valley, British Columbia. We examine how Neoglacial scouring and glacial recession have modified hillslope form and slope stability, and construct a decision-making flowchart to identify landslide hazards associated with glacial retreat. This work is based on field mapping, GIS analysis, statistical associations between landslides and terrain attributes, and a comparison between Neoglaciated and non-Neoglaciated terrain within each basin.The bedrock landslide response to glacial retreat varies appreciably according to lithology and the extent of glacial scour below the LIA trimline. Valleys carved in weak Quaternary volcanics show significant erosional oversteepening and contain deep-seated slope movement features, active rock fall, rock slides, and rock avalanches near glacial trimlines. Basins in stronger granitic rock rarely show increased bedrock instability resulting from post-LIA retreat, except for shallow-seated rock slides along some trimlines and failures on previously unstable slopes. In surficial materials, landslides associated with post-LIA retreat originate in till or colluvium, as debris slides or debris avalanches, and are concentrated along lateral moraines or glacial trimlines.Significant spatial association was also observed between recent catastrophic failures, gravitational slope deformation, and slopes that were oversteepened then debuttressed by glacial erosion. Eight out of nine catastrophic rock slope failures occurred just above glacial trimlines and all occurred in areas with a previous history of deep-seated gravitational slope movement, implying that this type of deformation is a precursor to catastrophic detachment.     

Vulnerability to environmental hazards in the Ciudad Juárez (Mexico)–El Paso (USA) metropolis: A model for spatial risk assessment in transnational context

The purpose of this paper is to present a geographic information system (GIS)-based method for mapping risk to environmental hazards. Framed by the hazards literature, the method has been developed to specifically overcome issues of data compatibility associated with transnational contexts. The approach is elaborated in reference to a project in which risk was spatially characterized, using a suite of biophysical and social indicators, for the Ciudad Juárez (Mexico)–El Paso (USA) metropolis. Results reveal clear spatial disparities in hazard vulnerability, both within and between the two cities, based on the differential allocation of selected risk factors. The case indicates that future international analyses will be advanced by the clear definition of concepts, the systematic mining of compatible variables, and the selection of valid risk indicators based on criteria that balance the need to incorporate contextual specificity with general comparability.     

Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal

Probabilistic seismic hazard for Mainland Portugal was re-evaluated in order to perform its disaggregation. Seismic hazard was disaggregated considering different spaces of random variables, namely, univariate conditional hazard distributions of M (magnitude), R (source-to-site distance) and ε (deviation of ground motion to the median value predicted by an attenuation model), bivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R and X–Y (seismic source latitude and longitude) or multivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R–ε and M–(X–Y)–ε. The main objective of the present work was achieved, as it was possible, based on the modal values of the above mentioned distributions, to characterize the scenarios that dominate some seismic hazard levels of the 278 Mainland Portuguese counties. In addition, results of 4D disaggregation analysis, in M–(X–Y)–ε, pointed out the existence of one geographic location shared by the dominant scenario of most analyzed counties, especially for hazard levels correspondent to high return periods. Those dominant scenarios are located offshore at a distance of approximately 70 km WSW of S. Vicente cape. On the other hand, the lower the return period the higher is the number of modal scenarios in the neighbourhood of the analyzed site. One may conclude that modal scenarios reproduce hazard target values in each site with great accuracy enabling the applications derived from those scenarios (e.g. loss evaluation) to be associated to a hazard level exceedance probability.     

Lightning fatalities in Swaziland: 2000–2007

An investigation is undertaken to analyze the human lightning fatalities in Swaziland. A total of 123 victims of lightning-related death were identified from the records of the Royal Swaziland Police Service and the local printed media for the period 2000–2007. An annual average fatality rate of 15.5 people per million, the highest recorded rate in the world, was obtained. The results also reveal that 66% were male, most (67%) of them were within the 10–39 age group with an average age of 28 years. Lightning fatalities occurred from September to May mainly in the afternoon (1400–1800 h). Deaths most commonly occurred indoors inside rural houses (17%), whilst walking (16%) and under a tree (14%). The incidents resulted in multiple fatalities in 22% of the cases with an average of 1.4 casualties per incident. The need for awareness campaigns, protection measures and detailed investigation is highlighted.     

Resilient capacity assessment for geological failure areas: examples from communities affected by debris flow disaster

This study establishes a novel method for assessing the community resilient capacity of debris flow disasters with appropriate parameters, such as responding, monitoring and communication capabilities. This study adopts eight communities in Taiwan, namely Nangang, Tongfu, Jhongyang, Laiyuan, Chingfu, Sinsheng, Shangan and Jyunkeng, as examples. First, the Analytic Hierarchy Process was applied to establish the framework of the community resiliency capacity, including the community’s resources for disaster resilience and resident capabilities. The community’s resources for disaster resilience are identified by surveying the community leaders via checklists. Resident capabilities are determined using questionnaires. The community resilient capacity refers to the sum of the results from these two investigations. The two investigations have similar weights, indicating that they are equally significant when evaluating community resilient capacity. Second, FLO-2D software is utilized for hazard analysis by simulation results of deposited areas for debris flows, and then these areas were categorized according to hazard degrees. Finally, the vulnerability of communities is classified based on the land use type. In summary, the values of capacity, hazard and vulnerability are integrated to determine the risk of debris flow for each community. A risk map is then generated.     

复杂含水条件下滑坡的稳定性分析及治理措施

成渝铁路K492滑坡为一大型堆积层老滑坡,自1998年开始变形以来,每年雨季出现线路外移、下沉和地面开裂现象,且日趋加大。随着地下水位和前缘长江水位的变化,该滑坡呈阶段性滑动变形,它的形成与发展以孔隙水压力为主。确定了该滑坡在不同水位条件下的安全系数,在特大洪水位下处于不稳定状态。同时提出根据水位的变化、裂隙的发育情况及裂隙水位计算其安全系数,对复杂含水的堆积层滑坡应以支挡和排水综合治理。     

The size and frequency of the largest explosive eruptions on Earth

A compilation and analysis of the size and frequency of the largest known explosive eruptions on Earth are presented. The largest explosive events are defined to be those eruptions yielding greater than 10¹⁵ kg of products (>150 times the mass of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo). This includes all known eruptions with a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 8. A total of 47 such events, ranging in age from Ordovician to Pleistocene, are identified, of which 42 eruptions are known from the past 36 Ma. A logarithmic magnitude scale of eruption size is applied, based on erupted mass, to these events. On this scale, 46 eruptions >10¹⁵ kg are defined to be of magnitude M8. There is one M9 event known so far, the Fish Canyon Tuff, with an erupted mass of >10¹⁶ kg and a magnitude of 9.2. Analysis of this dataset indicates that eruptions of size M8 and larger have occurred with a minimum frequency of 1.4 events/Ma in two pulses over the past 36 Ma. On the basis of the activity during the past 13.5 Ma, there is at least a 75% probability of a M8 eruption (>10¹⁵ kg) occurring within the next 1 Ma. There is a 1% chance of an eruption of this scale in the next 460–7,200 years. While the effect of any individual M8 or larger eruption is considerable, the time-averaged impact (i.e., erupted mass×frequency) of the very largest eruptions is small, due to their rarity. The long-term, time-averaged erupted mass flux from magnitude 8 and 9 eruptions is ~10–100 times less than for M7 eruptions; the time-averaged mass eruption rate from M7 eruptions is 9,500 kg s^–1, whereas for M8 and M9 eruptions it is ~70–1,000 kg s^–1. Comparison of the energy release by volcanic eruptions with that due to asteroid impacts suggests that on timescales of <100,000 years, explosive volcanic eruptions are considerably more frequent than impacts of similar energy yield. This has important implications for understanding the risk of extreme events.Editorial responsibility: R. Cioni     

Risk assessment of earth fractures by constructing an intrinsic vulnerability map,a specific vulnerability map,and a hazard map,using Yuci City,Shanxi, China as an example

Risk assessment of earth fracture hazards is particularly useful for regulatory, managerial, and decision-making purposes at all levels of government. A three-map method that includes intrinsic vulnerability, specific vulnerability, and hazard maps is developed to assess the earth fracture hazards in Yuci City, Shanxi, China. The intrinsic (natural) vulnerability map is based on the assessment of various natural factors by coupling the technologies of a Geographical Information System (GIS) to an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The specific vulnerability map is generated by coupling the technologies of a GIS and an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). According to the overlapping principles of multiple geo-information systems, the hazard map is therefore defined by overlapping the intrinsic and specific vulnerability maps using a spatial-operation function in the GIS. Unlike the intrinsic vulnerability map, the hazard map takes into account human activities and the importance of the area to be assessed. The proposed three-map approach is not only scientifically valuable, but provides a more realistic assessment of earth fracture hazards as well.