Ground deformation of the southern sector of the Aeolian islands volcanic arc from geodetic data

The deformation pattern and the dynamics of the southern sector of the Aeolian archipelago are investigated. A study on the ground deformation, measured over the last 20 years in the trilateration geodetic network between the islands of Vulcano and Lipari, has been conducted. Analysis of the relative displacements and the uniform strain tensor parameters, as well as the comparison between areal dilatation and the vertical variations deduced by precise levelling, allow distinguishing different phases associated both with the regional dynamics and the local volcanic context of the area. These phases, however, appear to be closely interrelated. The analysis of the deformation pattern allows to constrain the predominance of a roughly E–W trending extension and a N–S contraction at a regional scale. This regime is consistent with right-lateral movements along a NW–SE striking fault system.     

A method to predict the group fissuring and faulting caused by regional groundwater decline

Ground fissuring is a recurrent problem in many countries where water extraction surpasses the natural recharge of aquifers. Due to differential settlement, the soil layer undergoes deformation and cracks with serious consequences for civil infrastructure. Here, we propose an approximate analysis of the fissuring process that can be used to predict the location of cracks, which increasingly affect some middle- and large-sized cities in the world. For that purpose, the ground loss theory is applied to sediments overlying a sinusoidal-shaped graben. This analysis shows the existence of a tensile zone at the border of the graben with maximal values on its shoulder where tension cracks are more likely to appear. It also shows that soil deformation under differential settlement may evolve into ground faulting if water withdrawal continues. Finally, when a crack has completely developed, the tensile zone shifts towards the center of the graben, creating a new area for potential cracking and faulting.     

Fluid permeability of sedimentary rocks in a complete stress–strain process

The permeability of sedimentary rocks during triaxial compression tests was investigated to relate it to the complete strain–stress process. It was found that the permeability was not constant, but varied with the stress and strain states in the rocks. Prior to the peak strength, the permeability decreases with increasing load. A dramatic increase in permeability occurs during the strain softening period. In the present study, in situ measurements of fluid flow and pressure in floor strata was carried out in a double longwall mining face in the Yangzhuang colliery. These measurements show that both the strata pressure and the position with respect to the mining face influence the hydrogeologic properties. The permeability increased in the floor strata behind the mining face because those mining induced fractures opened as the strata pressure decreased. To better understand this change in hydraulic behavior around the mining faces, 3-D numerical modeling was carried out. The model provides the general picture of the stress distribution and failure zone both in the floor and roof strata. The field and model results demonstrate the importance of changes in the stress and strain states on the hydrogeology of a site.     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震前青海省形变及地温前兆特征分析

通过对青海省地倾斜、地应力、深井地温3种前兆手段在昆仑山口西8．1级地震前异常的分析与研究，得出了强地震远场前兆的一些初步特征，并与近场前兆异常特征做了比较，这对该省今后强震短期预报将是有益的。     

1987年8月2日江西省寻乌MS5.5级地震的震害与烈度分布

从寻乌5.5级地震的地震地质构造背景，宏观震害考察结果。结合近场强地面运动观测中几次较大地震的加速度峰值。分析宏观烈度分布特征。认为烈度分布特征除了受构造控制外，还与地形，地基土质条件有关，极震区长轴方向显示鸡笼嶂-寻乌-八尺北西向断裂是寻乌地震的主要发震断层，发震构造受控于华南块体构造应力场，发震区处于北北东向河源-邵武断裂中段和东西向断裂交汇部位。     

Horizontal and vertical components of earthquake ground motions at liquefiable sites

Field observations on ground motions from recent earthquakes imply that current knowledge is limited with regard to relating vertical and horizontal motions at liquefiable sites. This paper describes a study with the purpose of clarifying this emerging issue to some extent. A series of numerical analyses is carried out on a liquefiable soil deposit with a verified, fully coupled, nonlinear procedure. It is shown that the transformation of vertical motions in the deposit differs considerably from the transformation of horizontal motions. Both the amplitude and frequency content of the horizontal motions are strongly dependent on the shaking level or the associated nonlinear soil behavior. The transfer function for vertical motions is however likely to be independent of the intensity of input motions; no reduction in the amplitude occurs even in the case of strong shaking. The results are shown to be in consistence with the laboratory observations on shaking table tests and recent field observations that less nonlinearity exists for vertical motions. It is also shown that the possibility exists for using information on spectral ratios between the horizontal and vertical surface motions to quickly identify in situ soil behavior and liquefaction that are not readily covered by conventional field or laboratory experimentation procedures.     

Fuzzy neural network models for liquefaction prediction

Integrated fuzzy neural network models are developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential of a site. The models are trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. A two-stage training algorithm is used to develop a fuzzy neural network model. In the preliminary training stage, the training case histories are used to determine initial network parameters. In the final training stage, the training case histories are processed one by one to develop membership functions for the network parameters. During the testing phase, input variables are described in linguistic terms such as ‘high’ and ‘low’. The prediction is made in terms of a liquefaction index representing the degree of liquefaction described in fuzzy terms such as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’. The results from the model are compared with actual field observations and misclassified cases are identified. The models are found to have good predictive ability and are expected to be very useful for a preliminary evaluation of liquefaction potential of a site for which the input parameters are not well defined.     

Ground truth seismic events and location capability at Degelen mountain, Kazakhstan

We utilized nuclear explosions from the Degelen Mountain sub-region of the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS), Kazakhstan, to assess seismic location capability directly. Excellent ground truth information for these events was either known or was estimated from maps of the Degelen Mountain adit complex. Origin times were refined for events for which absolute origin time information was unknown using catalog arrival times, our ground truth location estimates, and a time baseline provided by fixing known origin times during a joint hypocenter determination (JHD). Precise arrival time picks were determined using a waveform cross-correlation process applied to the available digital data. These data were used in a JHD analysis. We found that very accurate locations were possible when high precision, waveform cross-correlation arrival times were combined with JHD. Relocation with our full digital data set resulted in a mean mislocation of 2 km and a mean 95% confidence ellipse (CE) area of 6.6 km² (90% CE: 5.1 km²), however, only 5 of the 18 computed error ellipses actually covered the associated ground truth location estimate. To test a more realistic nuclear test monitoring scenario, we applied our JHD analysis to a set of seven events (one fixed) using data only from seismic stations within 40° epicentral distance. Relocation with these data resulted in a mean mislocation of 7.4 km, with four of the 95% error ellipses covering less than 570 km² (90% CE: 438 km²), and the other two covering 1730 and 8869 km² (90% CE: 1331 and 6822 km²). Location uncertainties calculated using JHD often underestimated the true error, but a circular region with a radius equal to the mislocation covered less than 1000 km² for all events having more than three observations.     

地下水潮汐现象的物理机制和统一数学方程

用新的分层承压含水层模式 ,不但考虑含水层的力学压缩性质 ,而且考虑含水层的渗流特性 ,并结合扰动信息源的频率特性 ,分别研究扰动源地球固体潮、大气潮和地表负荷潮对承压井水位和流量的影响机理 ,给出相应的偏微分方程。从方程的解释或数值解讨论扰动源与承压井含水层的力学压缩参数、渗流特性参数及与频率特性频数的关系 ,进而给出承压井水位和流量对地球固体潮、大气潮和地表负荷潮汐响应的统一数学方程及其潮汐响应函数 ,并揭示了上述几类潮汐扰动信息源对承压井水位和流量影响的物理机理     

基于GIS与ANN耦合技术的地裂缝灾情非线性模拟预测系统——以山西榆次地裂缝灾害为例

现代地裂缝在世界许多国家普遍存在 ,已成为当今世界范围内的主要地质灾害之一。本文在详尽分析了山西榆次地裂缝的各个致灾因子的基础上 ,利用GIS技术建立了地质学意义上的专题层 ;然后采用人工神经网络技术构建出了地裂缝灾害活动性的评价模型 ,并建立了地裂缝活动性的评价系统 ,对榆次地裂缝进行了灾害活动性评价 ,为榆次市城建和国土规划等部门的正确决策提供了重要的科学依据