全过程联合校正方法在饶河流域洪水预报中的应用研究

为提高饶河流域洪水预报精度,将全过程联合校正(EPJC)方法与三水源新安江(XAJ)模型结合,按一定比例划分洪水预报总误差为各过程误差,基于系统响应理论反演得到面雨量计算误差和模型参数误差,重新输入流域水文模型正演得出校正后的洪水过程.选取洪峰流量相对误差、峰现时间绝对误差、径流深相对误差和确定性系数作为模型评价指标,...     

The U-Pb Geochronology and Lu-Hf Isotope Compositions of Detrital Zircons from the Nanhua Group of the Longsheng Region, South China and their Implications for Pan-African Events

It is unclear whether the South China blocks have an affinity with continental Gondwana due to a lack of direct Pan-African magmatic and metamorphic features. In this study, we conducted U-Pb geochronological and Lu-Hf isotopic analyses for detrital zircons from a sandstone of the Chang’an Formation of the Nanhua Group in the Longsheng region of northern Guangxi, with the aim of constraining the timing of sedimentation and information as to its source, as well as seeking evidence for Pan-African events in the South China blocks. The results show that the ages of detrital zircons peaked at 654.7 ± 6.2 Ma, 773.2 ± 4.1 Ma and 821.9 ± 6.5 Ma, with some at 920–870 Ma; the youngest age indicates the existence of the Pan-African thermal event. The εHf(t) and TDM2 values demonstrate that the study area has experienced three stages of crustal growth at 3.0–2.4 Ga, 2.1–1.5 Ga and 1.3–0.9 Ga. With intensively distributed Neoproterozoic mafic-ultramafic and granitic plutons emplaced at 830–810 Ma along the southwestern section of the Jiangnan Orogenic Belt and positive εHf(t) values from a large group of zircon grains, it is proposed that the sediments of the Chang’an Formation (of Nanhua Group) were largely sourced from the southeastern margin of the Yangtze block. Comparison with the zircon age spectra of the Cathaysian block shows that about 79% of the Pan-African aged detrital zircon grains that have TDM2 = 1352–1031 Ma and εHf(t) = 3.68–8.79, were sourced from the recycled Grenvillian crust of the Cathaysian block, suggesting that the Cathaysian block had a close connection with Gondwana.     

21世纪黄河下游防洪减灾对策

黄河是受人类活动强烈影响的河流,随着人类活动对流域环境的影响日趋增强,进入黄河下游的水沙条件发生了重大改变,防洪出现了许多新情况、新问题。黄河水资源进一步开发利用,下游牵断流及小水时间逐年延长,黄河将无有效输沙水量,如果来沙不能控制,现行河道的行洪能力和寿命将始终是中国的忧患。小浪底水库２００１年投入运用后,对黄河下游又将强烈堆积。２１世纪社会经济发展对黄河下游防洪减灾提出了更高要求,根据多年对黄     

强震的孕育规律与孕震模式

针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,发现强震孕育过程的指数规律：sf（k）=1.48ksc,其中sf（k）和sc分别为第k个锁固体断裂点与第一个锁固段膨胀起点对应的累加Be-nioff应变,可以利用锁固段在其变形膨胀点处开始发生的震群事件（加速性地震活动前兆）预测未来大震,并给出了强震四要素相关预测方法。通过对诸多历史强震（如邢台地震、海城地震、汶川地震、玉树地震等）的回溯性检验分析表明：强震可以预测,且其孕震过程都遵循着上述简单的共性力学规律。在此基础上,归纳出4种典型强震的孕震模式,即大震震级呈＂大—小—大＂型,大震震级呈连续上升型,锁固段快速连续破裂型与标准型。此外,根据相关强震预测理论方法,对有关抗震救灾未来研究的方向提出如下建议：建议加强活动断裂位置精确定位、性质判定的地震地质研究,并开展孕震区锁固段（闭锁区域）判识的地质与地球物理研究等。     

Safety assessment of infrastructures using a new Bayesian Monte Carlo method

A recently developed Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) method and its application to safety assessment of structures are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional BMC method that was proposed in 2009 by Rajabalinejad in order to develop a weighted logical dependence between successive Monte Carlo simulations. Our main objective in this research is to show that the extended BMC can dramatically improve simulation efficiency by using prior information from modelling and outcomes of preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for an extended BMC method for multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model and apply these coupled models to assessment of reliability of a flood defence for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans. This is the first successful demonstration of the BMC method to a complex system. We provide a comparison of the numerical efficiency for the BMC, Monte Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Bounds methods that are used in reliability assessment of complex infrastructures.     

Storm‐dominated sedimentation in a protected basin fringed by coral reefs,Nara Inlet,Whitsunday Islands,Great Barrier Reef,Australia

Hydrodynamic data and samples of bed sediment were collected from Nara Inlet, a small incised embayment in the Whitsunday Islands, central Great Barrier Reef. Measured tidal currents in the inlet do not exceed 0.2 ms^–1 even at spring tides. Swell waves dominate much of the inner shelf of the Great Barrier Reef but are absent from in the inlet due to the presence of a fringing reef at the inlet mouth. On the silty sand floor of the inlet, particle size decreases towards the inlet head. Most of the bed is too coarse to be remobilised by fair‐weather wave and tides, and we predict that bedload sediment transport thresholds are only exceeded in the inlet during cyclones. The observed distribution of bed sediments is consistent with landward dispersal of sediment under storm conditions. Over 20 m of (presumably Holocene) sediments occurs in the inlet and the seismic character of the infill is consistent with the observed textural variation of the modern sediments. We infer that sediment accumulation on the floor of the inlet has been storm dominated throughout much of the Holocene.     

论中国大陆复杂和混杂的碰撞带构造

中国大陆碰撞带是以结构复杂、形成过程复杂和物质成分趋于混杂为主要特征的。在构造特征上 ,表现为由构造岩片和混杂岩带所组成 ,形成扇状褶皱和对冲型逆掩断层。在剖面上常形成楔状(鳄鱼式 )构造 ,在平面上可构成嵌入构造 ,它们其实是两个板块在碰撞过程中互相挤压、缩短与穿插的、一个统一的三维共轭剪切断裂系统中的不同表现形式。绝大多数中国大陆碰撞带都不是一次形成的 ,而是经历了多期次、活动性质各不相同的、复杂的形成过程。为了进一步提高碰撞带的研究水平 ,应该把碰撞带及其两侧的板块当作一个整体来进行综合研究 ,应该大力加强碰撞带周邻板块的沉积古地理、生物古地理、古地磁学、地球化学和构造变形、变位资料的系统研究。碰撞作用时期是元素、岩石和构造单元趋于混杂的时期 ,而不是有利于元素、物质的分异和富集。碰撞带的主碰撞期形成的矿床是十分有限的。笔者推测有 4种类型的矿床可能将成为西部古碰撞带地区找矿的主要目标。     

国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。     

Origin and tectonic significance of a Mesozoic multi-layer over-thrust system within the Yangtze Block (South China)

In the Yangtze Block (South China), a well-developed Mesozoic thrust system extends through the Xuefeng and Wuling mountains in the southeast to the Sichuan basin in the northwest. The system comprises both thin- and thick-skinned thrust units separated by a boundary detachment fault, the Dayin fault. To the northwest, the thin-skinned belt is characterized by either chevron anticlines and box synclines to the northwest or chevron synclines to the southeast. The former structural style displays narrow exposures for the cores of anticlines and wider exposures for the cores of synclines. Thrust detachments occur along Silurian (Fs) and Lower Cambrian (Fc) strata and are dominantly associated with the anticlines. To the southeast, this style of deformation passes gradually into one characterized by chevron synclines with associated principal detachment faults along Silurian (Fs), Cambrian (Fc) and Lower Sinian (Fz) strata. There are, however, numerous secondary back thrusts. Therefore, the thin-skinned belt is like the Valley and Ridge Province of the North American Applachian Mountains. The thick-skinned belt structurally overlies the thin-skinned belt and is characterized by a number of klippen including the Xuefeng and Wuling nappes. It is thus comparable to the Blue Ridge Province of Appalachia.The structural pattern of this thrust system in South China can be explained by a model involving detachment faulting along various stratigraphic layers at different stages of its evolution. The system was developed through a northwest stepwise progression of deformation with the earliest delamination along Lower Sinian strata (Fz). Analyses of balanced geological cross-sections yield about 18.1–21% (total 88 km) shortening for the thin-skinned unit and at least this amount of shortening for the thick-skinned unit. The compressional deformation from southeast to northwest during Late Jurassic to Cretaceous time occurred after the westward progressive collision of the Yangtze Block with the North China Block and suggests that the orogenic event was intracontinental in nature.     

Microfacies and diagenesis of older Pleistocene (pre‐last glacial maximum) reef deposits,Great Barrier Reef,Australia (IODP Expedition 325): A quantitative approach

During Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 325, 34 holes were drilled along five transects in front of the Great Barrier Reef of Australia, penetrating some 700 m of late Pleistocene reef deposits (post‐glacial; largely 20 to 10 kyr bp ) in water depths of 42 to 127 m. In seven holes, drilled in water depths of 42 to 92 m on three transects, older Pleistocene (older than last glacial maximum, >20 kyr bp ) reef deposits were recovered from lower core sections. In this study, facies, diagenetic features, mineralogy and stable isotope geochemistry of 100 samples from six of the latter holes were investigated and quantified. Lithologies are dominated by grain‐supported textures, and were to a large part deposited in high‐energy, reef or reef slope environments. Quantitative analyses allow 11 microfacies to be defined, including mixed skeletal packstone and grainstone, mudstone‐wackestone, coral packstone, coral grainstone, coralline algal grainstone, coral‐algal packstone, coralline algal packstone, Halimeda grainstone, microbialite and caliche. Microbialites, that are common in cavities of younger, post‐glacial deposits, are rare in pre‐last glacial maximum core sections, possibly due to a lack of open framework suitable for colonization by microbes. In pre‐last glacial maximum deposits of holes M0032A and M0033A (>20 kyr bp ), marine diagenetic features are dominant; samples consist largely of aragonite and high‐magnesium calcite. Holes M0042A and M0057A, which contain the oldest rocks (>169 kyr bp ), are characterized by meteoric diagenesis and samples mostly consist of low‐magnesium calcite. Holes M0042A, M0055A and M0056A (>30 kyr bp ), and a horizon in the upper part of hole M0057A, contain both marine and meteoric diagenetic features. However, only one change from marine to meteoric pore water is recorded in contrast with the changes in diagenetic environment that might be inferred from the sea‐level history. Values of stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon are consistent with these findings. Samples from holes M0032A and M0033A reflect largely positive values (δ¹⁸O: ?1 to +1‰ and δ¹³C: +1 to +4‰), whereas those from holes M0042A and M0057A are negative (δ¹⁸O: ?4 to +2‰ and δ¹³C: ?8 to +2‰). Holes M0055A and M0056A provide intermediate values, with slightly positive δ¹³C, and negative δ¹⁸O values. The type and intensity of meteroric diagenesis appears to have been controlled both by age and depth, i.e. the time available for diagenetic alteration, and reflects the relation between reef deposition and sea‐level change.