Flowering and fruiting phenology of 24 plant species on the north slope of Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest)

Phenological background information for alpine species is limited from extremely high altitudes. Flowering and fruiting phenology was monitored for 24 plant species at 5,180 m a.s.l. near the base camp area on the north slope of Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) in Tibet, western China. The dates of first flowering, peak flowering, end of flowering, first fruiting, peak fruiting and flowering period were recorded. There was a wide variation in onset of flowering, long flowering duration, a relative synchrony bet...     

昆仑山口西地震和汶川地震前中源地震活动特征研究

研究2001年昆仑山口西地震和2008年汶川地震前的中源地震活动特征,与唐山地震前的特征进行比较,发现:3次大地震前曾发生6或7次h≥60 km的中源地震,且"大震前中源地震活跃的时间跨度T"约5年或5年多。这是大震前中源地震活动最主要的两个特征,包含了孕育大地震的一些重要信息。其他特征还有:中源地震的活动—平静交替、临近大地震前的地震平静、呈条带分布和(或)地震空区等特征,这与大震前壳内地震活动性的一些特征类似。     

华北地区第三、 四活动期平静幕后期中强地震活动与未来强震

本文通过分析、 研究华北地区第三、 四活动期各平静幕后期的中强地震活动特征, 认为: ① 华北地区第三、 四活动期9个活跃幕中有7个在首发强震前3年内发生中强地震, 其中第四活动期1～4活跃幕首发强震前2年内都发生了中强地震, 未来第5活跃幕首发强震前, 以发生中强地震作为序幕的可能性较大; ② 华北地区平静幕后期的中强地震活动, 对其后活跃幕首发强震在时间和地点上有一定指示作用。 由于华北地区可能即将进入新的强震活跃幕, 该研究对判断华北地区未来强震趋势具有实用意义。     

龙滩水库蓄水后库区中小地震震源机制

本文在对龙滩库区2006年9月30日至2013年5月26日发生的3682次地震进行精定位的基础上,利用FOCMEC方法和改进的格点尝试法反演了ML2.0以上地震震源机制及区域构造应力场,并综合龙滩库区地层岩性、断裂构造和渗透条件等资料,探讨了地震活动类型与库区蓄水过程的关系,获得以下认识:(1)龙滩水库蓄水后的地震活动主要丛集在罗妥、八茂、拉浪、坝首和布柳河5个深水区,地震类型以逆断为主,正断和走滑也占有一定比例.蓄水初期,库区地震类型呈现多样性,蓄水约4年3个月后,地震主要发生在浅部地层中,并大多为逆断型地震.(2)5个地震丛构造应力场最大主应力方向以NW—SE为主,倾角均较小,中等和最小主应力分布较凌乱,在此构造应力环境中,龙滩库区主要断裂整体上呈现走滑运动的性质,局部伴生不同程度的逆倾滑或正倾滑运动分量.(3)库区深、浅部地震活动水平和地震性质之所以会随蓄水过程发生变化,可能与深、浅部构造应力环境、岩体力学性质和渗透性能的差异有关.     

前兆观测资料与地震活动时间序列的Morlet小波变换及相关性分析

Morlet小波在时、频两域都具有良好的局部性,是对时间序列进行多尺度分析和局部特性研究常用的小波变换方法。本文运用Morlet小波变换分析了云南省大理市下关水化站1990~2013年期间水氡、水汞、流量、气压和固体CO2月均值时间序列的变化特征,并与同时期大理市附近50km以内ML2.0~2.9、100km以内ML3.0~3.9、200km以内ML4.0~4.9和600km以内MS≥5.0地震活动月频度的Morlet小波变换特征进行了对比研究,分别计算了5项前兆资料月均值与4个震级范围地震活动月频度的小波平方模之间的相关系数,并对其相关性进行了探讨。     

全球变暖中的科学问题

2013年各国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组发布了第五次气候变化科学评估报告,以大量的观测分析和气候模式模拟证据,继续强调由于人类排放增加,全球正在变暖,未来将继续变暖的观点。本文综述研究全球变暖的几个深层次的科学问题,即多套全球气温观测资料的差异、不同标准气候态时段的作用、20世纪全球变暖的检测和归因及未来全球气温变化的走向,以此提出需进一步研究的科学问题。结果表明;需要进一步提高观测资料的质量;注意不同标准气候态时段对应的数值的不同;应进一步改善气候模式模拟年代际变率的能力及研究近15 a全球变暖减缓和停滞的原因,从而改善气候模式的模拟效果;造成预估未来全球气候变化的不确定性主要来自气候模式的差异、未来排放情景的差异及气候系统内部变率影响和自然外强迫的作用。     

Improvements on particle swarm optimization algorithm for velocity calibration in microseismic monitoring

In this paper,we apply particle swarm optimization(PSO),an artificial intelligence technique,to velocity calibration in microseismic monitoring.We ran simulations with four 1-D layered velocity models and three different initial model ranges.The results using the basic PSO algorithm were reliable and accurate for simple models,but unsuccessful for complex models.We propose the staged shrinkage strategy(SSS) for the PSO algorithm.The SSS-PSO algorithm produced robust inversion results and had a fast convergence rate.We investigated the effects of PSO's velocity clamping factor in terms of the algorithm reliability and computational efficiency.The velocity clamping factor had little impact on the reliability and efficiency of basic PSO,whereas it had a large effect on the efficiency of SSS-PSO.Reassuringly,SSS-PSO exhibits marginal reliability fluctuations,which suggests that it can be confidently implemented.     

城市热岛效应热点问题研究进展

概述了国内外城市热岛效应研究热点及不足,探讨了时空替代性、评价指标合理性、模拟空间尺度适宜性及理论与应用研究相结合等问题,指出未来城市热岛效应研究应注重新方法与新思路的集成、城市群热岛效应监测、城市热岛与全球异常环境要素间的生态关联性、缓解城市热岛效应的生态途径与技术方法。     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

A Kaapvaal craton debate: Nucleus of an early small supercontinent or affected by an enhanced accretion event?

Incorporation of the Kaapvaal craton within a speculative Neoarchaean–Palaeoproterozoic supercontinent has long been debated, and this idea provides a potential solution to solving the apparently enigmatic provenance of the huge quantities of gold within the famous Witwatersrand auriferous deposits of Kaapvaal. Within a framework of a postulated Neoarchaean “Kenorland” (“northern”; present-day reference) supercontinent, we examine possible “southern” cratons that may have been contiguous with Kaapvaal: Pilbara, Zimbabwe, Dharwar, São Francisco, Amazon, Congo. Brief reviews of their basic geology and inferred evolution in syn-Witwatersrand basin times (c. 3.1–2.8 Ga) show no obvious support for any such supercontinental amalgamations. An alternative idea to explain a measure of gross similarity amongst several Neoarchaean cratons is through global events, such as a c. 3125–3000 Ma cratonic-scale erosive event interpreted for both Pilbara and Kaapvaal, and a much more widespread magmatic event at c. 2760–2680 Ma. We postulate that a global superplume event at c. 3.0 Ga included a plume beneath the Kaapvaal cratonic nucleus, thus halting any subduction around that terrane due to the thermal anomaly. Such a speculative global magmatic event is assumed to have enhanced production of juvenile oceanic crust at mid-ocean ridges, including those “offshore” of the thermally elevated Kaapvaal nucleus. Intra-oceanic obduction complexes may have built up fairly rapidly under such conditions, globally, and once the plume event had abated, “normal” plate tectonics would have resulted in composite (greenstone-tonalite, possibly also including granite) terranes accreting with nuclei such as Kaapvaal. This enhanced plume-related cratonic growth can be seen as a rapid accretion event. Formation of the envisaged ophiolite complexes possibly encompassed deformation-related first-order concentration of gold, and once accretion occurred around Kaapvaal's nucleus, from north and west (present-day frame of reference), a second-order (deformation-related) gold concentration may have resulted. The third order of gold concentration would logically have occurred once placer systems reworked detritus derived from the orogens along the N and W margins of Kaapvaal. Such conditions and placer gold deposits are known from many Neoarchaean cratons. The initial source of gold was presumably from the much hotter Mesoarchaean mantle and may have been related to major changes in Earth's tectonic regime at c. 3.0 Ga. The unique nature of Kaapvaal is probably its early stabilization, enabling formation of a complex flexural foreland basin system, in which vast quantities of placer sediments and heavy minerals could be deposited, and preserved from younger denudation through a unique post-Witwatersrand history.