预测华北地区年度地震趋势的支持向量机分类方法

以太阳黑子数、地球自转速率变化数据和全球7级以上地震应变释放量作为预测因子,使用支持向量机分类方法建模预测中国华北地区年度地震强度,预测准确率为0.93,表明该方法具有较好的预测效果.     

DGPS测深技术在海底管道工程中的应用

简要介绍了差分全球定位系统(DGPS)的基本定位原理、DGPS测深技术中水深测量系统的硬件组成。重点分析了福建LNG站线湄洲湾海底管道工程成功采用DGPS测深技术进行勘测作业,使测量精度和工程效率得到极大地提高。这一工程实践经验说明,DGPS测深技术逐步为海底管道工程所采用,但其是一个不断探索、不断完善的过程,对今后我国沿海地区的海底管道工程的勘测建设具有一定的借鉴作用。     

南北半球副热带高压对赤道东太平洋海温变化的响应

本文利用1974年1月到1996年12月重分析(NOAANCEP-NCARCDAS-1)全球500hPa位势高度场资料,及同期赤道太平洋各海区SST资料,研究了南北半球副热带高压的变化特征及其对赤道东太平洋SST变化的响应。结果表明,全球副热带高压的变化及对SST的响应,在南北两个半球有很好的一致性。全球副热带高压强度的变化与超前3个月SST的正相关最为显着。对SST响应最强烈的区域主要在南北纬30°之间的低纬,低纬地区局地SST对副热带高压也有强烈的影响。从10°到30°纬度,对SST的响应分别落后于赤道2～9个月。在中、高纬大气环流的响应表现为波列特征,对暖SST及冷SST的响应波列基本相反,但对暖SST的响应更为显着。海温和副热带高压的月际持续性有明显的季节变化,副热带高压9-10月的相关障碍可能与NinoC区SST8-9月的相关障碍低点有关。     

一种新的地球物理反演方法——模拟原子跃迁反演法

详细研究了一般地球物理反问题的迭代优化求解过程与物理学中原子跃迁过程的对应关系,建立了反演问题中模型空间、初始模型、局部极值模型、最优化模型等与原子的态空间、定态、激发态、基态等的对应关系. 在此基础上,模拟了物理学中原子从激发态向基态跃迁的物理过程,建立了一种与原子跃迁过程相对应的非线性随机跃迁数学模型和模型解跃迁搜索准则,导出了适用于一般地球物理资料的模拟原子跃迁的非线性反演算法. 用理论测试函数对这种新的反演方法进行了数值试验,结果表明该方法具有解不依赖于初始模型、收敛速度快等优点.     

全球地理信息系统(G2IS)架构体系初探

随着人们对全球GIS的需求不断增加,现有的地理信息系统在技术上已不能适应,因此,建设新一代全球GIS成为当前GIS发展的客观要求。本文基于地球剖分理论,以计算机集群技术、时空一体化技术和虚拟现实技术为辅助技术,提出了关于全球地理信息系统(G2IS)的架构体系的初步设想,认为新一代全球地理信息系统将成为GIS发展的一个重要方向。     

渔洞水库地区地震活动性和构造应力场分析

统计了渔洞水库的水位变化规律,分析了水库蓄水前后库区及其附近地区的地震活动性和构造应力场特征。结果表明,水库蓄水前后研究区地震活动的图像、强度和频次都没有明显变化;水库蓄水和水位变化对研究区构造应力场没有明显的影响。     

印尼8.7、8.5级远震对云南地区小震的激发和地下流体异常响应初探

2004年12月26日和2005年3月29日,印度尼西亚苏门答腊西北海域相继发生8.7和8.5级地震。通过对这两次地震与云南地震活动关系和地下流体记录异常变化的分析,认为:印尼两次8级地震的发生可能会使云南提前进入新一轮强震活跃期;远震对云南地区小震的激发和导致地下流体记录出现异常变化的因素虽然都与大地震面波的强弱、地质构造环境等有关,但机理不同。     

In situ stress field of eastern Australia

New in situ data based on hydraulic fracturing and overcoring have been compiled for eastern Australia, increasing from 23 to 110 the number of in situ stress analyses available for the area between and including the Bowen and Sydney Basins. The Bowen Basin displays a consistent north‐northeast maximum horizontal stress (σ_H) orientation over some 500 km. Stress orientations in the Sydney Basin are more variable than in the Bowen Basin, with areas of the Sydney Basin exhibiting north‐northeast, northeast, east‐west and bimodal σ_H orientations. Most new data indicate that the overburden stress (σ_V) is the minimum principal stress in both the Bowen and Sydney Basins. The Sydney Basin is relatively seismically active, whereas the Bowen Basin is relatively aseismic. Despite the fact that in situ stress measurements sample the stress field at shallower depth than the seismogenic zone, there is a correlation between the stress measurements and seismicity in the two areas. Mohr‐Coulomb analysis of the propensity for failure in the Sydney Basin suggests 41% of the new in situ stress data are indicative of failure, as opposed to 13% in the Bowen Basin. The multiple pre‐existing structural grains in the Sydney Basin further emphasise the difference between propensity for failure in the two areas. Previous modelling of intraplate stresses due to plate boundary forces has been less successful at predicting stress orientations in eastern than in western and central Australia. Nonetheless, stress orientation in the Bowen Basin is consistent with that predicted by modelling of stresses due to plate boundary forces. Variable stress orientations in the Sydney Basin suggest that more local sources of stress, such as those associated with the continental margin and with local structure, significantly influence stress orientation. The effect of local sources of stress may be relatively pronounced because stresses due to plate boundary forces result in low horizontal stress anisotropy in the Sydney Basin.     

Knowledge integration in sustainability governance through science-based actor networks

Understanding how science, technology and innovation can best help to accelerate progress in achieving sustainable development remains a grand challenge for researchers and practitioners. In the context of the global consultation process for preparing a post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda, various science-based actor networks have emerged, aiming to translate research into political decision-making and to inform transformations towards sustainability. Over the last years, these networks seem to have taken an ever-growing role in structuring the science-policy interface in global sustainability governance. The question arises, however, how they understand and organize ‘scientific knowledge integration’ in sustainability politics.This study offers a structured comparison of twelve global science-based actor networks engaged in the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. It shows that these networks use two types of strategies to foster scientific knowledge integration in sustainability governance. A new framework emerges, in which each strategy corresponds to two main approaches of scientific knowledge integration: The entrepreneurial strategy generally seeks to advance advice-oriented and solution-oriented knowledge processes, while assessment-oriented and learning-oriented processes in scientific knowledge integration are mainly promoted through a mediating strategy.     

Centralization in the global avoided deforestation collaboration network

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation projects currently cover an area approximately twice the size of Germany and challenge traditional concepts of centralization and decentralization in studies of environmental governance. Emerging from the interactions of a complex network of actors, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation demonstrates that transnational governance networks of organizations can become spatially centralized. Using a historical analysis of the development of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, we argue that the evolution of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation policy has been directed primarily from donor countries, especially in North America and Europe. Adopting a social network analysis approach, we present findings from a new dataset of collaboration on 276 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, avoided deforestation, and sustainable forest management projects that began some on-the-ground operations between 1989 and June 2012, finding that organizations in donor countries have from the beginning been the central actors in the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation network. We conclude that Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation exhibits spatial centralization within transnational governance architectures despite institutional fragmentation, raising important normative questions about participation in transnational forest governance.