斜坡失稳时间的协同预测模型

斜坡岩体由小变形到大变形乃至滑坡的发生，实质上是由组成斜坡的各子系统协同作用的结果．将协同学引入斜坡的稳定性预测评价中，并提出了一种新的斜坡失稳时间预测模型──协同预测模型．经实例检验，该模型预测精度较高，可用于滑坡的短期或临滑预报．     

Application of discovery process models in estimating petroleum resources at the play level in China

Discovery process modeling has gained wide acceptance in the Chinese exploration community. In recent years, a variety of discovery process models have been applied to the prediction of undiscovered petroleum resources at the play level in sedimentary basins in China. However, challenging problems have been encountered, particularly when one method alone has been applied to small plays in nonmarine sedimentary basins or in plays with an unusual order of discovery wells. This paper presents results gotten by using the lognormal discovery process model of the Geological Survey of Canada and the geoanchored method for three petroleum plays in basins with different geologic settings. Although the predicted shapes of the parentsize distributions which use these two models, were not always similar, the expected values of the total resources and the number of fields (pools) to be discovered are comparable. The combined use of two discovery process models in the same play compensates for the weaknesses in one method compared with the other and vice versa. Thus, more reliable estimates are the result.     

11 million years of Oligocene geomagnetic field behaviour

An 11 million year long record of the Oligocene geomagnetic field has been obtained from pelagic sediments of DSDP Hole 522 An average sample spacing of 4 cm yielded approximately one specimen per 4 to 8 kyr. The rock magnetics are remarkabh consistent across the entire interval. Previous work demonstrated a magnetic mineralogy dominated by magnetically stable magnetite. The natural remanent magnetism (NRM) carries an Oligocene polarity timescale that is in excellent agreement with the Oligocene reversal record as determined from marine magnetic anomalies (MMAs), including many of the so-called 'crypto-chrons'. Normalized NRM intensities from the undisturbed portions of the record yield a time series of variations with features consistent with a number of other palaeointensity time series derived from both sedimentary and lava sequences. These features include consistent, major decreases in palaeointensity (DIPs) at reversal boundaries, and occasional DIPs between reversal boundaries that could correspond to lineated 'tiny wiggles' in the MMA records. The data set suggests that the overall field strength was 40 per cent higher in the first half of the Oligocene when the average reversal frequency was 1.6 Myr^-1 than in the second half when the reversal frequency was 4 Myr^-1. There is also a weak dependence of average field strength on length of polarity interval. Finally, in the three cores suited to spectral analysis (of coherent polarity and relative intensity independent of lithological contamination), there is a persistent ca. 30–50ka periodicity in the variations of the relative intensity, suggesting that the geomagnetic field 'pulses' at about this frequency, not only during the Brunhes (as demonstrated by Tauxe & Shackleton 1994), but in the Oligocene as well.     

Development of joints and shear fractures in the Kuqa depression and its implication to regional stress field switching

The superimposed basin must have undergone the changes of regional stress field. Study on the nature and switch of regional stress field of superimposed basin is very useful to understanding its stress state and tectonic events during its formation and evolution. As sensitive markers of small stress changes, joint and shear fracture, characterized by consistency of orientation over wide area, can be used to reconstruct paleostress state and its evolution. Detailed observations and analysis on the orientations, geometrical patterns, sequences of joints and shear fractures and their chronological relation to faults and folds show that, the NEE-SWW systematic joints and NNW-SSE systematic joints developed in the Mesozoic and Cenozoic strata are much more prominent than NW-SE systematic joints and shear fractures with different orientations. And the NWW-SEE and NW-SE systematic joints formed later than NEE-SWW systematic joints but earlier than shear fractures with different orientations. According to the relationships between joint and shear fractures and stress, the NEE-SWW systematic joints are inferred to result from lateral weak extension caused by the late Cretaceous regional uplift, while the NNW-SSE and NW-SE systematic joints are interpreted as syn-tectonic deformation relating to strong N-S compression in the Neogene. But some conjugate shear fractures occur probably due to sinistral strike-slip faulting in the Kuqa depression. At the beginning of the Neogene, the stress field changed and the maximal principal stress σ1 switched from vertical to horizontal.     

山西省主要河流流域面雨量预报业务流程

以T213、HLAFS模式、MM5中尺度模式输出的格点资料以及日本降水量格点资料为基础，将影响山西降水的天气动力模型归纳为诊断模型，从中引出多个能够全面反映降水模型特征的综合物理因子；根据各种数值模式输出的降水量预报性能和质量优劣特点，依据数值模式的形势场预报优于要素场预报的现实，构造在不同环流形势背景下，启动不同预报方程的面雨量预报业务流程，有效地遏止了在环流形势调整时预报输出不能快速响应的弱点，提高了点和面雨量预报的准确度。     

几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。     

运用改进系统建模法对南海气象数据的建模研究

在系统建模理论的基础上,运用改进的动态数据建模方法,对南海气象数据中的温度进行建模并验证了模型的适用性.根据模型推导出格林函数、逆函数和自协方差函数等,并讨论了南海气象数据中温度模型的稳定性、可逆性和合理性.对系统的频率特性和谱函数进行分析讨论,并给出建模过程中的一些图像.根据模型的适用性检验发现,对所研究的气象数据而言,ARMA(4, 3)模型是最合适的,具有平稳可逆性.所有的建模和分析过程在MATLAB上实现.实验结果表明这种建模方案简便易行,能够快速准确地确定系统的合理模型.     

GPS水汽遥感中的大气干延迟局地订正模型研究

在GPS遥感水汽过程中,大气干延迟模型的精度直接影响水汽遥感的精度。根据广东清远站1995～2001年的气象探空资料,计算了GPS水汽测量中的实际大气干延迟。在此资料基础上,利用地面气象要素建立了大气干延迟的年和分月局地订正模型。分析结果表明,年模型的精度优于目前广泛使用的普适模型;月模型与年模型相比,效果不是很明显,建立局地分月订正模型意义不大;在对高度角的敏感程度上,局地模型略大些;当高度角小于75时,大气干延迟弯曲路径与直线路径之差ΔS随天顶角增大而迅速增大。     

用远场辐射场反演云闪放电参数

用地面电磁场遥感闪电放电参数无论是在实际应用还是理论研究中都具有重要意义。文中基于电流传输线模式 ,提出了一种用单站远场VLF/LF辐射场反演云内放电参数的简便方法。当传输线电流从底部传播到顶部的时间只有几微秒时 ,整个传输线的VLF/LF辐射可以近似成偶极子辐射 ,即远场辐射场与电流的时间变化率和传输线长度的乘积成正比。因此 ,对远场辐射场做时间积分就能获得完整的电流矩波形 (上升沿有所加宽 ) ,而且传输线模式中的重要参数 ,电流从底部传播到顶端经历的时间 ,也可以近似地用辐射场时间积分幅度与辐射场幅度之比来估计。这一方法具有估计云闪双极性大脉冲辐射过程的放电参数的潜力。     

载荷试验确定基床系数修正方法的讨论

Winkler地基模型是目前工程界应用最广的一种地基模型，但对其关键参数——基床系数k的确定，许多文献的表述并不一致。该文在大量试验资料的基础上，通过对该问题的深入研究，阐明了通过载荷试验确定基床系数修正方法的有关概念。对于砂性土地基，载荷板试验得出的基准基床系数仅需要进行基础大小修正，而对于粘性土地基，则需要进行基础大小和基础形状两项修正。