介休井水位异常的调查与分析

从井孔周围地下水开采量变化、大气降雨补给量变化、农田灌溉用水量变化、矿井塌方、涌水、排水和地震活动等影响因素入手 ,对 1999年至 2 0 0 0年间介休井水位的 2次突降原因进行了调查。通过初步分析 ,表明介休井水位阶降型异常具有一定的震兆性质 ,其水位的缓慢上升与突然阶降意味着介休地区断裂活动在加速。其地震预测的意义是未来一段时间山西地震带内有发生MS≥ 5 0级地震可能     

Simultaneous radio and optical observations of the mid-latitude atmospheric response to a major geomagnetic storm of 6–8 April 2000

Basic properties of the mid-latitude traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) during the maximum phase of a major magnetic storm of 6–8 April 2000 are shown. Total electron content (TEC) variations were studied by using data from GPS receivers located in Russia and Central Asia. The nightglow response to this storm at mesopause and termospheric altitudes was also measured by optical instruments FENIX located at the observatory of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (51.9°N,103.0°E), and MORTI located at the observatory of the Institute of Ionosphere (43.2°N, 77.0°E). Observations of the O (557.7 and 630.0 nm) emissions originating from atmospheric layers centered at altitudes of 90 and 250 km were carried out at Irkutsk and of the O₂(b¹∑_g⁺−X³∑_g⁻) (0-1) emission originating from an atmospheric layer centered at altitude of 94 km was carried out at Almaty. Our radio and optical measurement network observed a storm-induced solitary large-scale wave with duration of 1 h and a wave front width of no less than 5000 km, while it traveled equatorward with a velocity of 200 m/s from 62°N to 38°N geographic latitude. The TEC disturbance, basically displaying an electron content depression in the maximum of the F2 region, reveals a good correlation with growing nightglow emission, the temporal shift between the TEC and emission variation maxima being different for different altitudes. A comparison of the auroral oval parameters with dynamic spectra of TEC variations and optical 630 nm emissions in the frequency range 0.4–4 mHz (250–2500 s periods) showed that as the auroral oval expands into mid-latitudes, also does the region with a developed medium-sale and small-scale TEC structure.     

2000年4月6日磁暴期间磁扰变化在低纬子午链的纬度效应

利用低纬地磁子午链上H和D分量的分均值数据 ,分析了 2 0 0 0年 4月 6日磁暴期间磁扰变化的纬度效应 .主要特点是 :(1 )急始期间H分量急始跃变幅随磁纬降低而减小 ,且急始变幅的下降率随磁纬降低而逐渐增大 ;(2 )初相期间H分量第 2峰值的变幅和初相持续时间随磁纬降低而减小 ;(3)主相期间H分量迅速减小 ,并随纬度降低最大变幅明显增加 ;(4)恢复相H分量呈两阶段上升趋势 ,前一阶段迅速上升 ,后一阶段上升速度明显减小 .最后对这些磁扰变化的纬度效应与空间电流体系的密切关系作了讨论 .     

Spatial variation of seismic motion induced by propagation of body waves

Spatial variation of earthquake ground motion is an important phenomenon that cannot be ignored in the design and safety of strategic structures. Several models have been developed to describe this variation using statistical, mathematical or physical approaches. The latter approach is not specific to an event. A recent contribution, which uses such an approach and called complete stochastic deamplification approach (CSDA), was developed [1]. The aim of this paper is to analyze the spatial variation of earthquake motion induced by the propagation of body waves using the CSDA. Coherency functions are evaluated for the cases of SH–SV–P waves propagating through stratified soil. Results obtained show that the variation of the coherency function is not the same for vertical and horizontal components and that the motion is more coherent at depth than at the free surface. In fact, we found that the rate of decrease with frequency and distance is not the same if P–SV waves propagate through stratified soil.     

A theoretical analysis of the observed variability of the geomagnetic dipole field

We present a detailed analysis of the Sint-800 virtual axial dipole moment (VADM) data in terms of an Ω mean field model of the geodynamo that features a non-steady generation of poloidal from toroidal magnetic field. The result is a variable excitation of the dipole mode and the overtones, and there are occasional dipole reversals. The model permits a theoretical evaluation of the statistical properties of the dipole mode. We show that the model correctly predicts the distribution of the VADM and the autocorrelation function inferred from the Sint-800 data. The autocorrelation technique allows us to determine the turbulent diffusion time τ_d=R²/β of the geodynamo. We find that τ_d is about 10–15 kyr. The model is able to reproduce the observed secular variation of the dipole mode, and the mean time between successive dipole reversals. On the other hand, the duration of a reversal is a factor 2 too long. This could be due to imperfections in the model or to unknown systematics in the Sint-800 data. The use of mean field theory is shown to be selfconsistent.     

大姚地热动态特征分析

通过大姚高精度水温观测井水地质、井孔条件的分析，震例观测资料、实验观测数据的处理，以及井水水质分析结果，表明大姚水温周期性变化的突出位置是井深75m左右，根本原因是该地层石膏脉稳定释热，含水层热水与井内冷水混合过程中，在通道内形成钙盐类沉淀物（如CaSO4CaCO3），堵塞对流通道，含水层内外压差突破被阻塞通道，热水反复侵入井内，便形成水温周期性变化。地震的孕育、发生和调整过程，由于应力场作用，产生附加地热场，水温基值发生变化，周期畸变或消失，这种附加地热动态是可以恢复的。所以认为大姚地热动态是井区特殊地层地热信息的反映。     

天山西部中山带积雪变化趋势与气温和降水的关系——以巩乃斯河谷为例

根据位于巩乃斯河谷的天山积雪雪崩研究站近30年来的年最大雪深、月平均气温、月降水量观测记录，用平均差值法、最小二乘法、自回归滑动平均法检验了天山西部中山带积雪、冷季降水、冷季平均气温的变化趋势，结果表明，天山西部中山带积雪呈增加趋势，近30年来年平均增加1.43%，与青藏高原、南极大陆及格陵兰冰盖表面积雪积累增加相一致。天山西部中山带冷季气温和降水的变化趋势也是增加的，其中冷季降水平年平均增加0．12％，而冷季气温升高了0．8℃，积雪与冷季气温之间存在着弱的负相关关系，而与冷季降水呈显著的正相关关系。积雪的增加主要是因为气候变暖引起的冷季降水的增加对积雪增加的贡献大于由于冷季气温升高而造成积雪减少的贡献的结果。     

区域环境变迁与持续发展的互动关系

区域历史进程中持续发展与环境变迁表现出了复杂的互动关系，两种动态过程紧密地交织在一起，通过人类活动互相作用，互相影响，持续发展，环境变迁与人类活动的内容在不同时代表现出不同的主题，并受到自然和人为因素的调节与控制，文中还简要阐明了当代可持续发展的主题，指出解决PRED问题要注意控制人口数量，提高人口素质；消除贫困，达到全球环境共有共治共保共享。