An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability

Introduction There have been nearly 40 years for earthquake prediction since the research on earthquake prediction was carried out in plan by some advanced countries since 1960s. For the hard long process of earthquake prediction, Alen, American famous scientist and former president of the evaluation commission of earthquake prediction in California, USA, said that the difficulty of earthquake prediction is more than the expected and the practical progress of earthquake prediction is more sl…     

大姚地热动态特征分析

通过大姚高精度水温观测井水地质、井孔条件的分析，震例观测资料、实验观测数据的处理，以及井水水质分析结果，表明大姚水温周期性变化的突出位置是井深75m左右，根本原因是该地层石膏脉稳定释热，含水层热水与井内冷水混合过程中，在通道内形成钙盐类沉淀物（如CaSO4CaCO3），堵塞对流通道，含水层内外压差突破被阻塞通道，热水反复侵入井内，便形成水温周期性变化。地震的孕育、发生和调整过程，由于应力场作用，产生附加地热场，水温基值发生变化，周期畸变或消失，这种附加地热动态是可以恢复的。所以认为大姚地热动态是井区特殊地层地热信息的反映。     

天山西部中山带积雪变化趋势与气温和降水的关系——以巩乃斯河谷为例

根据位于巩乃斯河谷的天山积雪雪崩研究站近30年来的年最大雪深、月平均气温、月降水量观测记录，用平均差值法、最小二乘法、自回归滑动平均法检验了天山西部中山带积雪、冷季降水、冷季平均气温的变化趋势，结果表明，天山西部中山带积雪呈增加趋势，近30年来年平均增加1.43%，与青藏高原、南极大陆及格陵兰冰盖表面积雪积累增加相一致。天山西部中山带冷季气温和降水的变化趋势也是增加的，其中冷季降水平年平均增加0．12％，而冷季气温升高了0．8℃，积雪与冷季气温之间存在着弱的负相关关系，而与冷季降水呈显著的正相关关系。积雪的增加主要是因为气候变暖引起的冷季降水的增加对积雪增加的贡献大于由于冷季气温升高而造成积雪减少的贡献的结果。     

坝上高原安固里淖粒度年纹层与环境变化

在安固里淖湖心区获取一未扰动沉积物样柱，分析发现了由冬季风搬运物与湖心沉积共同形成的粒度年纹层，建立了纹层年表，恢复了安固里淖湖区8507aB.P，以来的环境变化过程。8507-5429aB.P。冬季风活动较弱，后期的所波动；5429-3244aB.P.冬季风活动较强，3244-2494aB.P。冬季风活动减弱；2494-1165aB.P。冬季风活动略有增强；1165aB.P以来，冬季风活动减弱。安固里小淖粒度年纹层反映的冬季风变化情况与我国北方地区同期的环境变化和海平面变化有很好的对应关系。     

区域环境变迁与持续发展的互动关系

区域历史进程中持续发展与环境变迁表现出了复杂的互动关系，两种动态过程紧密地交织在一起，通过人类活动互相作用，互相影响，持续发展，环境变迁与人类活动的内容在不同时代表现出不同的主题，并受到自然和人为因素的调节与控制，文中还简要阐明了当代可持续发展的主题，指出解决PRED问题要注意控制人口数量，提高人口素质；消除贫困，达到全球环境共有共治共保共享。     

Morphological variation and reproductive biology of Polaskia chende (Cactaceae) under domestication in Central Mexico

The columnar cactus Polaskia chende, endemic to Central Mexico, occurs in the wild and in silviculturally managed populations where artificial selection for better edible fruits operates by sparing and favouring desirable phenotypes during vegetation clearance. Wild and managed populations were compared in morphology and reproductive biology to analyse if human selection has influenced phenotypic divergence, if it has modified breeding systems and if reproductive isolation exists between them. Fruits from managed populations were larger (6·36±0·17 cm³), heavier (19·62±1·32), sweeter (9·07±0·25 °Brix), and with thinner peel (2·09±0·13 mm) than those from wild populations (5·77±0·18 cm³, 15·73±0·85 g, 8·23±0·31 °Brix, and 2·58±0·14 mm, respectively). Both population types bloom synchronically, show diurnal anthesis, with bees as the most likely pollinators, and have breeding system predominantly self-incompatible. Spatial and temporal barriers to pollen exchange between wild and managed populations are unlikely, and morphological differences would be related with an ongoing process of artificial selection.