A comparative error analysis of manual versus automated methods of data acquisition for algebraic strain estimation

This paper presents a statistical analysis of the algebraic strain estimation algorithm of Shimamoto and Ikeda [Shimamoto, T., Ikeda, Y., 1976. A simple algebraic method for strain estimation from deformed eillipsoidal objects: 1. Basic theory. Tectonophysics 36, 315–337]. It is argued that the error in their strain estimation procedure can be quantified using an expected discrepancy measure. An analysis of this measure demonstrates that the error is inversely proportional to the number of clasts used. The paper also examines the role of measurement error, in particular that incurred under (i) a moment based and (ii) manual data acquisition methods. Detailed analysis of these two acquisition methods shows that in both cases, the effect of measurement error on the expected discrepancy is small relative to the effect of the sample size (number of objects). Given their relative speed advantage, this result favours the use of automated measurement methods even if they incur more measurement error on individual objects. Validation of these results is carried out by means of a simulation study, as well as by reference to studies appearing in previous literature. The results are also applied to obtain an upper bound on the error of strain estimation for various studies published in the literature on strain analysis.     

Counting chronology and climate records with about 1000 annual layers of a Holocene stalagmite from the Water Cave in Liaoning Province, China

One active stalagmite from the Water Cave in Liaoning Province contains growth layers of three sizes. Based on thermal ionization mass spectrometry 230Th dating, we found that middle size layers are annual layers, with each middle layer consisting of one narrow dark layer and a wide bright layer. The small layers within middle layers are sub-annual layers and the large layers are multi-year layers. Based on the layer-counting method, we established a high-resolution time scale for layer thickness. Our results reveal two dramatic century-scale climate cycles over the past 1000 years in this region.     

Spatial variation of seismic motion induced by propagation of body waves

Spatial variation of earthquake ground motion is an important phenomenon that cannot be ignored in the design and safety of strategic structures. Several models have been developed to describe this variation using statistical, mathematical or physical approaches. The latter approach is not specific to an event. A recent contribution, which uses such an approach and called complete stochastic deamplification approach (CSDA), was developed [1]. The aim of this paper is to analyze the spatial variation of earthquake motion induced by the propagation of body waves using the CSDA. Coherency functions are evaluated for the cases of SH–SV–P waves propagating through stratified soil. Results obtained show that the variation of the coherency function is not the same for vertical and horizontal components and that the motion is more coherent at depth than at the free surface. In fact, we found that the rate of decrease with frequency and distance is not the same if P–SV waves propagate through stratified soil.     

坝上高原安固里淖粒度年纹层与环境变化

在安固里淖湖心区获取一未扰动沉积物样柱，分析发现了由冬季风搬运物与湖心沉积共同形成的粒度年纹层，建立了纹层年表，恢复了安固里淖湖区8507aB.P，以来的环境变化过程。8507-5429aB.P。冬季风活动较弱，后期的所波动；5429-3244aB.P.冬季风活动较强，3244-2494aB.P。冬季风活动减弱；2494-1165aB.P。冬季风活动略有增强；1165aB.P以来，冬季风活动减弱。安固里小淖粒度年纹层反映的冬季风变化情况与我国北方地区同期的环境变化和海平面变化有很好的对应关系。     

区域环境变迁与持续发展的互动关系

区域历史进程中持续发展与环境变迁表现出了复杂的互动关系，两种动态过程紧密地交织在一起，通过人类活动互相作用，互相影响，持续发展，环境变迁与人类活动的内容在不同时代表现出不同的主题，并受到自然和人为因素的调节与控制，文中还简要阐明了当代可持续发展的主题，指出解决PRED问题要注意控制人口数量，提高人口素质；消除贫困，达到全球环境共有共治共保共享。     

长江日流量混沌变化特性研究——Ⅰ相空间嵌入滞时的确定

为了以新途径探索长江水量变化规律并在此基础上做出预测,全面而系统地研究了宜昌站日流量混沌变化特性并建立了新预测模型.重点论述相空间嵌入滞时的确定.分析了传统的自相关函数法和真实矢量场法确定嵌入滞时的优劣,并提出以广义相关函数合理确定嵌入滞时的方法.研究结果表明广义相关函数法是一个合理又可操作的途径.     

江苏高邮地震台地磁变化与地震关系的初探

分析了江苏高邮地磁台1980年至2002年地磁垂直分量日变幅逐日比值的高值异常与江苏及邻区ML5．0以上地震之间的关系，发现它们之间有良好的对应关系，通过分析地磁垂直分量谐波幅度的逐日比，提出了适用于高邮地磁台的地震分析预报参数，并对其内检预报效能进行了评价。     

黄骅坳陷横向变换带的构造特征及成因

讨论了黄骅坳陷横向变换带的构造特征和成因。根据利用地震反射剖面对盆地构造几何学的研究，圈定了不同尺度的横向变换带，确定了伸展构造背景下的横向变换带是为了保持区域伸展应变调节构造变形的一种调节体系。这种伸展应变守恒是靠三维空间上断层位移沿走向的变化实现的。横向变换带的构造样式为横向地垒状凸起和鼻状凸起或鼻状背斜，并具伸展性质的正断层。横向凸起与非叠复的和叠复的分段断层系伴生及发育在断层位移最小处等事实表明，横向凸起或横向鼻状背斜是由于分段断层系位移沿走向变化形成的。     

CLIMATIC RECORDS FROM ANNUAL LAYERS AND STABLE ISOTOPES OF A STALAGMITE IN BEIJING OVER THE LAST 2300 YEARS

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