库车坳陷西段的逆冲推覆距离研究

库车坳陷西段地区发育有巨厚膏盐层,喜马拉雅山末期构造运动使天山造山带大幅度向南挤压,造成大量盐体在库车前陆褶皱冲断带前缘被逆冲推覆至地表,地层并发生强烈的褶皱和逆冲推覆,所以在计算该区域地层向南推覆的总距离时,不仅要考虑平衡剖面技术所恢复出地层横剖面上的缩短量,另外还要考虑由于膏盐层塑性流动所造成上盘推覆体向南的滑移距离,本文综合利用平衡剖面技术和物理模拟实验方法求取了该研究区域的地层缩短量(24.5km)及上盘推覆体向南的滑移距离(3.969~14.727km),从而计算出库车坳陷西段的逆冲推覆距离为18.5~39.227km。     

结构方程模型及其在地学数据建模中的回顾与展望

结构方程模型是一种建立、 估计和检验因果关系的方法.它可以替代多重回归、 路径分析、 因子分析、 协方差分析等方法,清晰分析单项指标对总体的作用和单项指标间的相互关系,是一种主要应用于验证性模型分析的多元统计建模技术.由于能够通过可观测变量来度量潜变量得分以及分析不同子模型下潜变量之间的协同效应等优点,结构方程模型被广...     

上海复合极端风暴洪水淹没模拟

河口三角洲和沿海城市面临着台风、暴雨、高潮位和上游下泄洪水叠加的“四碰头”复合极端风暴洪水的严重威胁。构建了大气-海洋-陆地相耦合的一体化数值模拟系统,实现了上海市“风”“暴”“潮”“洪”多灾种复合情景的极端洪涝淹没模拟,并验证了耦合方法的有效性,为复合风暴洪水的一体化模拟提供了一套可行的数值模拟方法。在9711台风影响下,模拟了1998年堤防升级改造后淹没面积(水深>0.2m)比改造前减少了62%,表明沿海沿江堤防设施建设在上海市防台防汛中起着关键性的作用。复合极端风暴洪水的有效模拟可为财产保险和未来市政规划提供参考。     

Remote effects of tropical cyclone wind forcing over the western Pacific on the eastern equatorial ocean

An ocean general circulation model （OGCM） is used to demonstrate remote effects of tropical cyclone wind （TCW） forcing in the tropical Pacific. The signature of TCW forcing is explicitly extracted using a locally weighted quadratic least=squares regression （called as LOESS） method from six-hour satellite surface wind data; the extracted TCW component can then be additionally taken into account or not in ocean modeling, allowing isolation of its effects on the ocean in a clean and clear way. In this paper, seasonally varying TCW fields in year 2008 are extracted from satellite data which are prescribed as a repeated annual cycle over the western Pacific regions off the equator （poleward of 10°N/S）; two long-term OGCM experiments are performed and compared, one with the TCW forcing part included additionally and the other not. Large, persistent thermal perturbations （cooling in the mixed layer （ML） and warming in the thermocline） are induced locally in the western tropical Pacific, which are seen to spread with the mean ocean circulation pathways around the tropical basin. In particular, a remote ocean response emerges in the eastern equatorial Pacific to the prescribed off-equatorial TCW forcing, characterized by a cooling in the mixed layer and a warming in the thermocline. Heat budget analyses indicate that the vertical mixing is a dominant process responsible for the SST cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Further studies are clearly needed to demonstrate the significance of these results in a coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling context.     

城市钻孔数据地下三维地质建模软件的实现

介绍了基于钻孔数据的城市地下三维地质建模软件的实现过程，提出了基于钻孔数据三维地质建模的总体思路、钻孔数据管理和层序分层方法，还介绍了软件的模块组成及应用实例。建立的软件实现了对城市钻孔数据的三维建模、可视化分析和科学管理，具有丰富的二维成图和三维显示功能，实例的应用也说明本软件是分析城市第四系构造格架和演化的有力工具。     

结合边界条件的截断高阶隐式有限差分方法(英文)

有限差分方法广泛应用于求解许多科技领域所涉及的偏微分方程,高阶显式有限差分方法通常用来提高求解精度,已经提出的高阶隐式有限差分方法和截断高阶显式有限差分方法可用来进一步提高模拟精度而不增加计算量。本文首先计算了针对常规网格上的一阶导数和二阶导数、交错网格上的一阶导数的有限差分系数,发现高阶隐式有限差分系数中存在一些小的系数。频散分析结果表明:忽略这些小的差分系数能够近似维持有限差分的精度,但是显著减小了计算量。然后,引入镜像对称边界条件来提高隐式有限差分方法的精度和稳定性,采用混合吸收边界条件来减小来自模型边界所不需要的反射。最后,给出了针对均匀和非均匀介质模型的弹性波模拟例子,表明了本文方法的优点。     

A CLOUD-RESOLVING MODELING STUDY OF SURFACE RAINFALL PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH LANDFALLING TYPHOON KAEMI(2006)

The detailed surface rainfall processes associated with landfalling typhoon Kaemi(2006) are investigated based on hourly data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated for 6 days with imposed large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal temperature and vapor advection from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data. The simulation data are validated with observations in terms of surface rain rate. The Root-Mean-Squared (RMS) difference in surface rain rate between the simulation and the gauge observations is 0.660 mm h^-1, which is smaller than the standard deviations of both the simulated rain rate (0.753 mm h^-1) and the observed rain rate (0.833 mm h^-1). The simulation data are then used to study the physical causes associated with the detailed surface rainfall processes during the landfall. The results show that time averaged and model domain-mean P_s mainly comes from large-scale convergence (Q_WVF) and local vapor loss (positive Q_WVT). Large underestimation (about 15%) of P_s will occur if Q_WVT and Q_CM (cloud source/sink) are not considered as contributors to P_s. Q_WVF accounts for the variation of P_s during most of the integration time, while it is not always a contributor to P_s. Sometimes surface rainfall could occur when divergence is dominant with local vapor loss to be a contributor to P_s. Surface rainfall is a result of multi-timescale interactions. Q_WVE possesses the longest time scale and the lowest frequency of variation with time and may exert impact on P_s in longer time scales. Q_WVF possesses the second longest time scale and lowest frequency and can explain most of the variation of P_s. Q_WVT and Q_CM possess shorter time scales and higher frequencies, which can explain more detailed variations in P_s. Partitioning analysis shows that stratiform rainfall is dominant from the morning of 26 July till the late night of 27 July. After that, convective rainfall dominates till about 1000 LST 28 July. Before 28 July, the variations of in rainfall-free regions contribute less to that of the domain-mean Q_WVT while after that they contribute much, which is consistent to the corresponding variations in their fractional coverage. The variations of Q_WVF in rainfall regions are the main contributors to that of the domain-mean Q_WVF, then the main contributors to the surface rain rate before the afternoon of 28 July.     

下击暴流的数值模拟研究

下击暴流是危害飞行安全的一种重要天气现象，特别是尺度为１—４ｋｍ的微下击暴流。为了了解下击暴流的发展过程，以及大气环境条件和云－降水微物理结构对下击暴流发生演变的影响，利用我们设计发展的非静力全弹性中尺度－γ模式，以一次发生了下击暴流的大气的温、湿、风实测资料为算例进行了数值模拟研究。计算结果给出了下击暴流发生发展的过程，以及在发展过程中各种物理量的变化，得出一些大气环境条件及水凝物粒子微结构对下击暴流发展的影响机理，有助于台站预报员掌握这种天气现象的出现和演变。     

福建紫金山铜金矿床成矿流体演化数值模拟——混合和沸腾过程研究

利用ＣＨＩＬＬＥＲ软件模拟了紫金山铜金矿床主矿化阶段成矿流体的混合和局部减压等焓沸腾过程，模拟结果显示矿化具有低的ＨＳ＾－和Ｃａ＾２＋浓度，高的Ａｓ含量。在混全和沸腾过程中，随着温度和压力的降低，ｐＨ值和ｆＯ２逐渐降低，这是些金山铜金矿成矿流体的重要特征。