Generalized dual porosity: A numerical method for representing spatially variable sub-grid scale processes

A generalized dual porosity method (GDPM) has been developed to incorporate sub-grid scale heterogeneity into large-scale flow and transport simulations. The method is spatially variable in the sense that the method can be applied with different levels of resolution for different spatial nodes in the simulation. The method utilizes the nodal connectivity structure and linear equation solvers of unstructured grids like those used in the finite element method, and can be applied to any problem without externally modifying the numerical grid. The algorithm scales linearly in CPU time and storage with the number of GDPM nodes. We demonstrate the utility and computational efficiency of the technique with two verification problems and an example problem of a field site.     

Convergence analyses of different modeling schemes for generalized Lippmann–Schwinger integral equation in piecewise heterogeneous media

For wave propagation simulation in piecewise heterogeneous media, Gaussian-elimination-based full-waveform solutions to the generalized Lippmann–Schwinger integral equation (GLSIE) are highly accurate, but involved with extremely time-consuming computations because of the very large size of the resulting boundary–volume integral equation matrix to be inverted. Several flexible approximations to the GLSIE are scaled in an iterative way to adapt numerical solutions to the smoothness of heterogeneous media in terms of incident wavelengths, with a great saving of computing time and memory. Among various typical iterative schemes to the GLSIE matrix, the generalized minimal residual method (GMRES) is an efficient approach to reduce the computational intensity to some degree. The most efficient approximation can be obtained using a Born series, as an alternative iterative solution, to both the boundary-scattering and volume-scattering waves, leading to the Born-series approximation (BSA) scheme and the improved Born-series approximation (IBSA) scheme. These iteration schemes are validated by dimensionless frequency responses to a heterogeneous semicircular alluvial valley, and then applied to a heterogeneous multilayered model by calculating synthetic seismograms to evaluate approximation accuracies. Numerical experiments, compared with the full-waveform numerical solution, indicate that the convergence rates of these methods decrease gradually with increasing velocity perturbations. The comparison also shows that the BSA scheme has a faster convergence than the GMRES method for velocity perturbations less than 10 percent, but converges slowly and even hardly achieves convergence for velocity perturbations greater than 15 percent. The IBSA scheme gives a superior performance over the other methods, with the least iterations to achieve the necessary convergence.     

基于GRNN模型与邻域计算的低丘缓坡综合开发适宜性评价——以乌蒙山集中连片特殊困难片区为例

土地资源是最重要的自然资源,低丘缓坡开发能够为土地资源紧张地区产业发展提供重要的资源保障,而土地开发适宜性评价则是开展低丘缓坡综合开发利用的基础性工作,其核心在于综合评定低丘缓坡未利用地开发的适宜类型及其程度。以乌蒙山集中连片特殊困难片区为例,本研究在明确界定低丘缓坡范围的基础上,构建了低丘缓坡耕地、建设用地开发适宜性评价指标体系并基于GRNN模型划分土地开发适宜性等级;重点关注集中连片土地开发的规模化效益,采用邻域算法对研究区低丘缓坡综合开发适宜性进行评价。研究结果表明,乌蒙山片区低丘缓坡土地开发潜力巨大,耕地、建设用地开发单宜区面积分别为31.37 万hm²和3.84万hm²,其中多宜区面积达1.79 万hm²;而考虑同现有用地类型及土地开发类型的空间邻接关系,基于规模效益原则综合权衡,多宜区中0.84 万hm²更适宜开发为耕地,0.69 万hm²更适宜用于建设用地开发,0.26 万hm²因空间孤立而不作为土地开发区;综合开发适宜性评价确定耕地、建设用地开发区面积分别为27.68 万hm²和2.21 万hm²。研究结果对于乌蒙山片区低丘缓坡综合开发具有重要的实践指导意义。     

Larval fish abundance and physical forcing in the Gulf of Alaska, 1981–2003

The present study investigates ecological patterns and relationships to environmental variables among a time-series of larval fish species abundance from late spring surveys (1981–2003) in the northwest Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Links between interannual variation in species abundance and the physical environment were explored using generalized additive modeling (GAM). Trends in larval abundance and connections with physical variables displayed patterns that indicate unique and complex responses among species to environmental forcing during the larval period. In particular, the observed patterns suggest that ontogenetic-specific responses, representing sub-intervals of early life, are important. In addition, a notable degree of synchrony in larval abundance trends, and similarity in links with physical variables, were observed among species with common early life history patterns. The deepwater spawners, northern lampfish, arrowtooth flounder, and Pacific halibut, were most abundant in the study area during the 1990s, in association with enhanced wind-driven onshore and alongshore transport. Years of high abundance for Pacific cod, walleye pollock, and northern rock sole were associated with cooler winters and enhanced alongshore winds during spring. High larval abundance for spring–summer spawning rockfish species and southern rock sole seemed to be favored by warmer spring temperatures later in the time-series. This apparent exposure–response coupling seems to be connected to both local-scale and basin-scale environmental signals, to varying degrees depending on specific early life history characteristics. Understanding such ecological connections contributes to the evaluation of vulnerability and resilience among GOA species’ early life history patterns to fluctuating climate and oceanographic conditions. This investigation also provides crucial information for the identification of “environmental indicators” that may have a broad-spectrum effect on multiple species early life history stages, as well as those that may be more species-specific in exerting control on early life history survival. Of particular interest was the emergence of the EP–NP (East Pacific–North Pacific) teleconnection index as the top-ranked variable in the GAM models exploring the connections between late spring larval abundance and the physical environment. The EP–NP index represents an important and often primary mode of spring–summer atmospheric variability in the northeast Pacific, with a strong expression in the GOA, and its connection with species in this study implies that it may be a climate mode of significant ecological importance.     

The influence of seasonality on estimating return values of significant wave height

A time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) model for monthly significant wave heights maxima is developed. The model is applied to several 3-hour time series from the Spanish buoy network. Monthly maxima show a clear non-stationary behavior within a year, suggesting that the location, scale and shape parameters of the GEV distribution can be parameterized using harmonic functions. To avoid a possible over-parameterization, an automatic selection model, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, is carried out. Results show that the non-stationary behavior of monthly maxima significant wave height is adequately modeled, drastically increasing the significance of the parameters involved and reducing the uncertainty in the return level estimation. The model provides new information to analyze the seasonal behavior of wave height extremes affecting different natural coastal processes.     

基于GAM模型的南海鸢乌贼CPUE时空分布及其与环境因子的关系

根据2013-2016年南海两艘灯光罩网渔船的生产统计资料,结合卫星遥感获取的环境因子数据,运用广义可加模型(GAM)分析了南海春季鸢乌贼渔场分布及其与时空和环境因子的关系.结果 表明:2013-2014年鸢乌贼单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE,Catch Per Unit Effort)呈增长趋势,而2015-2016...     

雷达回波预测极端暴雨概率方法构建原理与应用研究

基于局地雷达回波基数据强度与雷达体扫面内相应地区强降水量之间的统计关系,并通过LucasKanade局部光流法分析下一小时可能影响该地区的回波区域,将这些区域定义为强降水影响系统的动态回波上游。同时分析雷达各层体扫回波情况,即考虑强降水系统的空间伸展程度。通过分析这些动态回波区域在当前时刻内(每10 min多层体扫信息)的时空变化特征,建立回波强度特征与局地降水的相关,进一步与改善的降水极值概率预测方法相结合,构建对下一小时局地暴雨重现期极值预测预警指标,为应急保障方案和及时应对决策提供技术支持与专业参考信息。整体方案以2006-2011年6-8月盐城多普勒天气雷达回波强度的基数据资料和同时段盐城雷达体扫范围内建湖气象站的小时雨量序列为基础,采用Lucas-Kanade局部光流法确定回波强度反映的降水系统时空动态上游,并利用皮尔逊III型方法和广义帕累托方法建立回波类别与建湖局地白天与夜间降水序列的统计概率关系,计算回波类别对应的局地极端降雨极值以及极值重现概率特征,构建降水系统的雷达回波动态综合特征与下一小时局地强降水极值概率间的统计关系指标,指标的相关性检验达到70%。该方法具有强降水多等级重现期极值预测能力,为下一小时临近极端暴雨预测预警提供了雷达监测动力统计优化方法。     

Generalized inversion of the Korteweg–de Vries equation

A generalized inverse is presented for the Korteweg–de Vries (KdV) equation, an initial condition and data from synthetic but realistic solitary internal waves. The synthetic data are statistically consistent with hypothesized levels of error in the KdV equation, initial condition and observing system. The observing system consists of point-wise measurements of the pycnocline displacement, either at fixed locations or from a ship drifting in the soliton current. These synthetic inversions are designed using the environmental conditions and disturbances observed by Pinkel [J. Phys. Oceanogr. 30 (2000) 2906]. The inverse solution is found by minimizing a quadratic cost functional, which yields a weighted least-squares best-fit to the KdV equation, the initial condition and the data. The weight for each squared residual is derived from its hypothesized covariance.The minimal value of the least-squares estimator (or cost function) is the test statistic for the error hypotheses and is shown here to be a reliable indicator of grossly incorrect hypotheses. In particular, it will be shown that even with just a single ship survey, the method does lead to decisive tests of hypotheses concerning the level of error in the model. Also, neglect of ship drift is found to be less deleterious to the inversion than is neglect of error in the KdV dynamics.The inverse is calculated by the iterated, direct representer algorithm [Ocean Model. 3 (2001) 137], which is readily extended to include parameter estimation. Significant skill is found for estimating the linear phase speed.     

用解析的垂直正规模展开对大气数值模式进行垂直积分

本文提出了一个用大气自由振荡解析的垂直正规模为正交函数系构成一个完备的Hilbert空间,利用广义Fourier展开的概念,在垂直方向进行广义Fourier展开,对大气数值模式进行垂直积分.我们利用两组垂直正规模为正交函数系.第一组是等温大气的垂直正规模;第二组是多元大气的垂直正规模,并用变系数的一维平流方程进行试验积分,将积分结果与差分法、有限元法、Legendre多项式展开的结果进行比较.比较的标准是它们与解析解的均方根误差和相关系数.