WAVELENGTH SELECTION IN MULTICOMPONENT NEAR-INFRARED CALIBRATION

Modern scanning(near-)infrared reflectance/absorption(NIR)spectroscopes measure the absorptions orreflectances at a sequence of around 1000 wavelengths.Training data may consist of 10-100 carefullydesigned sample mixtures for which the true composition of the mixture is either known by formulationor accurately determined by wet chemistry.In future one wishes to predict the true composition fromthe spectrum.In this paper we compare a simple wavelength selection approach with methods whichretain all the wavelengths.It offers a powerful yet simple technique for choosing those wavelengths thatare specific to each pure component as against the other components(including the medium)for thevarying compositions.In the presence of a defined range of ingredients it thus chooses wavelengths whichare highly selective for each particular component.It has the added advantage of selecting wavelengthswhich are little effected by interaction effects and consequent non-linearities.The calibration data used consist of 125 observations of three sugars,each varying at five levels in afull 5~3 design.The validation set consists of 21 further samples specially selected to have compositionsoutside the range of the training sample.The selection methods perform much better on this predictionset than methods which retain all the wavelengths,700 in this case.The leave-one-out cross-validationinternal to the calibration data would point to the opposite finding and suggests that such cross-validations may be overly flattering to techniques such as partial least squares and may encourageoverfitting.After selection,simple straightforward least squares methods may be used,eschewing theneed for‘shrinkage’methods such as partial least squares or ridge regression.     

地球动力学过程中的波动现象及其在地震预报中的应用

讨论了地球内部的波动现象与构造及地震间的关系。引进了４类广义构造波。它们是：表现为地球不同年代的综合构造运动结果的超长周期构造波；由地震活动性迁移，即所谓地震活动波所反映的长周期（不同类型与不同速度的，周期从几年到几十年）构造波；由地震前兆三阶段发展过程反映出的中等周期（从几月到几年）构造波；以及由地下水位、地倾斜、重力、地震波、电磁辐射、地声等的变化所记录的短周期（从几分到几天）构造波。地震活动波又有３类，可分别用广义瑞利型构造波、广义洛夫型构造波及广义导波型构造波来解释。最后，研讨了地球内部波动现象在地震研究中的应用，包括它们在地震危险性分析与地震区划、地震预报以及地震成因研究中的应用。     

相对广义温度平流在强对流天气分析和预报中的应用

利用１９９４年４月６－７日发生在鄂、赣、皖交界地区的强风暴过程和８次历史个例，对其前一日资料作了温度平流和广义温度平流的计算分析。分析指出：广义温度平流上下层之差的负值中心附近是未来较强对流天气最可能出现的地区。     

河南及邻区中等地震前广义时间维的变化特征

应用广义时间分维理论，对河南省及邻区１９７０年以来发生的１２次ＭＬ≥４．７级地震前后的中小地震活动进行了时间扫描，分析其变化特征。结果表明，在研究区内发生的这１２次中等地震前１－２年内，震中区及其邻近地区的广义时间维Ｄｔ都存在一个较为明显的降维过程；地震大多发生在Ｄｔ下降后开始恢复的过程段内；其发震时间大约距Ｄｔ异常最低点２－２０个月；地震发生后Ｄｔ值常快速回升，并逐步恢复正常。     

Examining the reduction in potable water consumption by households in Catalonia (Spain): Structural and contingent factors

Water consumption by households is influenced by a host of factors, widely investigated in the literature. However, the effects of contingent situations like drought episodes and economic crises, which may strongly restrict direct water use in households, remain less explored, and especially a combination of both. Catalonia, a Mediterranean region, suffered the worst drought episode in the last 75 years in 2007 and 2008, followed immediately by the worst economic crisis also in several decades between 2009 and 2014 (though still fishtailing). Taking it as a case study and using metered water data for the household sector, we propose a generalized linear mixed model in which the influence of both the drought episode and the economic crisis on per capita water consumption by comarques (supra-municipal entities) is assessed using a drought index on one hand, and economic variables and the water price on the other hand. Likewise, demographic, territorial and climatic determinants, as well as environmental behaviour, are also evaluated. The dataset (N = 287) consists of panel data for the forty-one comarques of Catalonia covering the 2007 to 2013 period. Results confirm that the contingent factors analysed have contributed to further reduce per capita water consumption, being significant the drought index and water price. The proportion of elderly people, the household size and the proxy for environmental behaviour, also have a negative effect on consumption; whereas seasonal population has the expected positive effect. However, neither the climatic and economic variables analysed, nor urban density and the proportion of foreign population, are found to be significant. A better understanding of the factors influencing residential water consumption in a context of growing water scarcity and economic downturn may aid policy makers and water managers not only to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of demand-side management measures that affect households, but to address emerging social concerns such as water poverty.     

Predicting stem borer density in maize using RapidEye data and generalized linear models

Average maize yield in eastern Africa is 2.03 t ha⁻¹ as compared to global average of 6.06 t ha⁻¹ due to biotic and abiotic constraints. Amongst the biotic production constraints in Africa, stem borers are the most injurious. In eastern Africa, maize yield losses due to stem borers are currently estimated between 12% and 21% of the total production. The objective of the present study was to explore the possibility of RapidEye spectral data to assess stem borer larva densities in maize fields in two study sites in Kenya. RapidEye images were acquired for the Bomet (western Kenya) test site on the 9th of December 2014 and on 27th of January 2015, and for Machakos (eastern Kenya) a RapidEye image was acquired on the 3rd of January 2015. Five RapidEye spectral bands as well as 30 spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) were utilized to predict per field maize stem borer larva densities using generalized linear models (GLMs), assuming Poisson (‘Po’) and negative binomial (‘NB’) distributions. Root mean square error (RMSE) and ratio prediction to deviation (RPD) statistics were used to assess the models performance using a leave-one-out cross-validation approach. The Zero-inflated NB (‘ZINB’) models outperformed the ‘NB’ models and stem borer larva densities could only be predicted during the mid growing season in December and early January in both study sites, respectively (RMSE = 0.69–1.06 and RPD = 8.25–19.57). Overall, all models performed similar when all the 30 SVIs (non-nested) and only the significant (nested) SVIs were used. The models developed could improve decision making regarding controlling maize stem borers within integrated pest management (IPM) interventions.     

Parametric vertical coordinate formulation for multiscale, Boussinesq, and non-Boussinesq ocean modeling

Two physical parameters are introduced into the basic ocean equations to generalize numerical ocean models for various vertical coordinate systems and their hybrid features. The two parameters are formulated by combining three techniques: the arbitrary vertical coordinate system of Kasahara [Kasahara, A., 1974. Various vertical coordinate systems used for numerical weather prediction. Mon. Weather Rev. 102, 509–522], the Jacobian pressure gradient formulation of Song [Song, Y.T., 1998. A general pressure gradient formation for ocean models. Part I: Scheme design and diagnostic analysis. Mon. Weather Rev. 126 (12), 3213–3230], and a newly introduced parametric function that permits both Boussinesq (volume-conserving) and non-Boussinesq (mass-conserving) conditions. Based on this new formulation, a generalized modeling approach is proposed. Several representative oceanographic problems with different scales and characteristics––coastal canyon, seamount topography, non-Boussinesq Pacific Ocean with nested eastern Tropics, and a global ocean model––have been used to demonstrate the model’s capabilities for multiscale applications. The inclusion of non-Boussinesq physics in the topography-following ocean model does not incur computational expense, but more faithfully represents satellite-observed ocean-bottom-pressure data. Such a generalized modeling approach is expected to benefit oceanographers in solving multiscale ocean-related problems by using various coordinate systems on the same numerical platform.     

Application of a coupled discontinuous–continuous Galerkin finite element shallow water model to coastal ocean dynamics

A coupled discontinuous–continuous Galerkin (DG–CG) shallow water model is compared to a continuous Galerkin generalized wave-continuity equation (GWCE) based model for the coastal ocean, whereby local mass imbalance typical of GWCE-based solutions is eliminated using the coupled DG–CG approach. Two mass imbalance indicators for the GWCE-based model are presented and analyzed. The indicators motivate discussion on the suitability of using a GWCE-based model versus the locally conservative coupled DG–CG model. Both realistic and idealized test problems for tide, wind, and wave-driven circulation form the basis of the study. For the problems studied, coupled DG–CG solutions retain the robustness of well-documented solutions from GWCE-based models and also capture the dynamics driven by small-scale, highly advective processes which are problematic for GWCE-based models. Issues associated with the coupled DG–CG model are explored, including increased cost due to increased degrees of freedom, the necessary application of slope limiters, as well as the actual coupling process.     

近地表大气逆温条件下的地表温度遥感反演与验证

为了减少近地表大气逆温对地表温度遥感反演精度的影响,提出在晴空的地表温度"通用劈窗算法"模型中增加一个温度改正项来实现。在建立该误差改正项时,利用正常条件下的通用劈窗算法系数和具有不同逆温强度的逆温廓线,并结合大气辐射传输模型MODTRAN计算,得到近地表大气逆温条件下的地表温度反演误差,并在分析了该误差值与相应的逆温强度的关系后,发现该温度改正项可以表示为近地表大气逆温强度的二次项函数。为了进一步提高地表温度的反演精度,将地表温度和大气水汽含量进行分组,分别针对每个分组来确定温度改正项方程的系数。模拟结果表明,在逆温强度为1.7 K/100m时,该温度改正项可以使地表温度的反演精度提高0.44 K。利用内蒙古海拉尔试验站的实测数据对地表温度反演结果进行了验证,在近地表大气存在逆温的条件下,该方法能提高地表温度的遥感反演精度0.47K。但是,由于本文提出的方法需要已知大气温度廓线来计算大气逆温强度,因此在实际应用中该方法受到了一定的限制。     

Generalized maximum-likelihood estimation of variance components with inverted gamma prior

A new method for the estimation of variance components is presented. The proposed method combines the concept of maximum-likelihood estimation with the Bayesian approach and facilitates computationally efficient introduction of prior information into the estimation process. Received: 22 April 1998 / Accepted: 19 April 1999