积云参数化方案研究的现状

对现有的广泛使用的１１种积云参数化方案进行综述,侧重于它们的热力学特点和它们的优缺点,并对目前积云参数化的研究进行讨论。     

Flirting with Disaster: Impacts of natural disasters on public support for environmental spending

Policymakers must understand public opinion to craft effective policies, particularly in highly polarized areas such as environmental policy. However, the literature investigating the factors that drive public opinion on environmental spending largely ignores the role of exogenous events. This article investigates the role that natural disasters, as a form of exogenous shock, play in shaping public opinion. We construct a dataset using the General Social Survey (GSS) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) natural disaster data from 1980 to 2018 and use generalized ordered logistic models to analyze the relationship between disasters and environmental opinions in the US. Our findings reveal that the number of disasters that occur significantly drives public support for environmental spending and that different types of disaster have heterogeneous impacts with wildfires and severe winter weather events being the most impactful. These results shed light on the impact of environmental events on public opinion on the environment, helping both researchers and policymakers make sense of dynamic public opinions.     

Applicability of generalized additive model in groundwater potential modelling and comparison its performance by bivariate statistical methods

Groundwater is the most valuable natural resource in arid areas. Therefore, any attempt to investigate potential zones of groundwater for further management of water supply is necessary. Hence, many researchers have worked on this subject all around the world. On the other hand, the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) has been applied to environmental and ecological modelling, but its applicability to other kinds of predictive modelling such as groundwater potential mapping has not yet been investigated. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of GAM model and then its comparison with three popular GIS-based bivariate statistical methods, namely Frequency Ratio (FR), Statistical Index (SI) and Weight-of-Evidence (WOE) for producing groundwater spring potential map (GSPM) in Lorestan Province Iran. To achieve this, out of 6439 existed springs, 4291 spring locations were selected for training phase and the remaining 2147 springs for model evaluation. Next, the thematic layers of 12 effective spring parameters including altitude, plan curvature, slope angle, slope aspect, drainage density, distance from rivers, topographic wetness index, fault density, distance from fault, lithology, soil and land use/land cover were mapped and integrated using the ArcGIS 10.2 software to generate a groundwater prospect map using mentioned approaches. The produced GSPMs were then classified into four distinct groundwater potential zones, namely low, moderate, high and very high classes. The results of the analysis were finally validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve technique. The results indicated that out of four models, SI is superior (prediction accuracy of 85.4%) following by FR, GAM and WOE, respectively (prediction accuracy of 83.7, 77 and 76.3%). The result of groundwater spring potential map is helpful as a guide for engineers in water resources management and land use planning in order to select suitable areas to implement development schemes and also government entities.     

From modelling theory to policy: lessons from the LCS project

The Low-Carbon Society (LCS) research project (Strachan et al., 2008) is to be congratulated for providing a rich, useful source of models to inform and precipitate discussion of policy options for moving towards a low-carbon society. This commentary explores additional considerations that warrant inclusion in any policy discussion: the feasibility of political will and leadership, the limitations of technical feasibility, and clarity about what ‘the price of carbon’ means. Difficulties exist with establishing carbon prices due to differences in energy prices between countries and the distinction between baseline (existing policies) and additional parts. An alternative may be to place more emphasis on the energy price for mitigation, along with other indicators (energy efficiency, carbon intensity, renewable power diffusion) for comparison. A policy is proposed, based on the energy price combined with an emphasis on accelerating technological innovation and overcoming barriers to the adoption of energy efficiency measures.     

非饱和黄土震陷物理力学机制与主导影响因素

通过分析黄土震陷的物理过程及其力学机制,指出非饱和黄土震陷实质上是土体广义固相介质响应外部动荷载作用的再固结过程。将影响黄土震陷的主导因素归纳为两方面,即土体广义固相介质的强度、体积特征和外部动荷载特征。介质的强度特征可通过引入土工试验获取的参数(粘聚力和内摩擦角)来宏观表征;体积特征可由能够反映土体欠压密程度的孔隙比描述。与非饱和黄土震陷的宏观物理力学机制相适应,粘聚力与内摩擦角主要反映土体的结构性强度(黄土强度特征),孔隙比则反映了土体再固结的潜在性态(黄土沉降量值特征);黄土强度特征对应土体抵御外部载荷的能力,黄土沉降量值特征对应外部载荷作用下的土体沉降能力。     

Studies on the determination of shear wave velocity in sands

Laboratory investigations such as resonant column, cyclic triaxial, and torsional shear tests are usually conducted on undisturbed and reconstituted sand samples in order to determine their shear modulus, which can be used to compute shear wave velocity. However, these methods are extremely cumbersome and indirect, they employ cost-intensive instrumentation, and they require trained manpower. These problems can be overcome by using bender elements, which yield the shear wave velocity of sands directly, easily, and quite rapidly. In this context, efforts made by earlier researchers in developing empirical relationships (based on bender elements and resonant column techniques) which can be employed to compute shear wave velocity in sands are worth consideration. Although these relationships take into account parameters like effective stress and void ratio, they do not directly incorporate fundamental characteristics of sands such as their state (i.e. dry or saturated) and the particle size. Thus a generalized relationship, which can be used to compute shear wave velocity in sands in either the dry or saturated state, has been developed. Experiments were conducted on samples of sand and glass beads of different sizes and the results were used to demonstrate the utility and efficiency of the relationship. Details of the methodology developed for this purpose are also presented in this paper.     

Soil seed bank longevity of the exotic annual grass Bromus rubens in the Mojave Desert,USA

Although arid environments are often considered among the least invaded terrestrial biomes, the impacts of exotic plant species can be severe and long lasting. Bromus rubens (red brome) is an exotic annual grass species in the Mojave Desert known to outcompete native plant species, alter habitat, and promote accumulation of fuel that contributes to increasing fire frequency and severity. We assessed longevity of the exotic B. rubens seeds in the soil by burying seeds at four depths (0, 2, 5, and 10 cm) and recovering seeds 6, 12, 18, and 24 months after burial. Seed viability was reduced with greater burial depth and greater time since burial. A relatively small proportion of seeds retained viability for two years, suggesting that while the B. rubens seed bank can be large, it is relatively short-lived. Although B. rubens apparently relies more on the annual production, dispersal, and germination of seeds than on a long-lived seed bank for its annual recruitment, the numerous seeds produced by individual plants indicate that even a small proportion of seeds remaining viable for more than a year can aid recruitment from the seed bank and is an important factor in understanding population dynamics.     

基于精确Zoeppritz方程三变量柯西分布先验约束的广义线性AVO反演

常规AVO三参数反演是通过Zoeppritz方程的近似公式来建立AVO正演模拟的过程,然而在P波入射角过临界角和弹性参数在纵向上变化剧烈的情况下,Zoeppritz方程近似公式精度有限.针对这种情况,可以使用精确的Zoeppritz方程来构建反演目标函数,由于精确Zoeppritz方程中P波反射系数和弹性参数之间是一种复杂的非线性关系,通常解决途径是利用非线性的优化算法来进行数值计算,但是非线性优化算法的缺点是计算量过大;另外一种途径是利用广义线性反演的方法,通过泰勒一阶展开式将P波反射振幅展开后,用线性关系近似表达非线性关系,经过几次迭代后,在理论上可以达到很高的精度,但是广义线性反演算法的核心部分--Jacobian矩阵由于矩阵条件数过大,往往会造成反演算法的不稳定,其应用范围得到了限制.贝叶斯反演方法是通过引入模型参数的先验分布结合噪声的似然函数,生成模型参数的后验分布,通过求取模型参数的最大后验概率分布来得到模型参数的反演解,由于引入模型参数的先验分布信息,可以有效的降低反演的不适定问题.本文将两种反演算法的思想相结合,利用广义线性反演算法的思想,构建AVO正演模拟的过程来提高大角度地震数据反演的精度,同时结合贝叶斯理论,通过引入模型参数的先验分布信息构建反演目标函数的正则化项,可以有效降低由于Jacob矩阵条件数过大带来的反演不适定问题,该算法假设模型参数服从三变量柯西分布.     

利用探地雷达频谱反演层状介质几何与电性参数

通过对地下层状介质探地雷达(GPR)回波广义反射系数的奇偶分解,建立了联系GPR反射系数序列频谱与介质几何参数、电性参数的代价函数,这些介质参数包括地下反射面的深度、层厚度以及各层的介电常数和电导率,从而提出了一种由GPR频谱同时估算地下介质多参数的全局优化反演方法.为了对多参数全局优化算法给出一个合理的参数初值,研究了不同参数对反射系数序列频谱属性的影响规律,提出了利用不同频谱属性分别估算不同参数的分步反演方法.以分步反演方法得到的结果作为多参数全局优化反演的初值,可以极大地提高反演计算的效率和反演结果的可靠性.用理论模型合成数据和GPR公路检测数据对本文方法进行了测试,结果表明本文方法效果良好,具有较高的分辨率,能较好的给出厚度小于调谐厚度的薄层的深度、厚度和介电常数等参数.     

中国大陆活动地块边界带最大震级分布特征研究

中国大陆活动地块边界带是强震活动的集中带,也是地震预测研究与防灾减灾的主要目标区,而最大地震震级是描述区域地震活动性的一个基本参数,被广泛应用于地震危险性分析研究中,因此有必要开展各活动地块边界带最大震级分布特征研究.本文利用广义极值(GEV)分布对各边界带作极值统计分析,对于分布参数进行估计,比较极值分布99％分位数和b值截距法最大震级、历史最大震级,并计算各震级水平下地震平均复发周期与发震次数,探讨活动地块各边界带未来强震活动的危险性.