Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Directly Affecting Guangdong Province:Prediction Based on LSTM-FC

Tropical cyclone(TC) annual frequency forecasting is significant for disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province. Based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed global sea surface temperature(SST) V5 data in winter, the TC frequency climatic features and prediction models have been studied.During 1951-2019, 353 TCs directly affected Guangdong with an annual average of about 5.1. TCs have experienced an abrupt change from abundance to deficiency in the mid to late ...     

Improving kriging of groundwater level data using nonlinear normalizing transformations—a field application

Abstract

The present research study investigates the application of nonlinear normalizing data transformations in conjunction with ordinary kriging (OK) for the accurate prediction of groundwater level spatial variability in a sparsely-gauged basin. We investigate three established normalizing methods, Gaussian anamorphosis, trans-Gaussian kriging and the Box-Cox method to improve the estimation accuracy. The first two are applied for the first time to groundwater level data. All three methods improve the mean absolute prediction error compared to the application of OK to the non-transformed data. In addition, a modified Box-Cox transformation is proposed and applied to normalize the hydraulic heads. The modified Box-Cox transformation in conjunction with OK is found to be the optimal spatial model based on leave-one-out cross-validation. The recently established Spartan semivariogram family provides the optimal model fit to the transformed data. Finally, we present maps of the groundwater level and the kriging variance based on the optimal spatial model.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Varouchakis, E.A., Hristopoulos, D.T., and Karatzas, G.P., 2012. Improving kriging of groundwater level data using nonlinear normalizing transformations—a field application. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1404–1419.     

Comparison of ordinary and disjunctive kriging in an Indian iron ore deposit

This paper presents the results of disjunctive kriging applied to a supergene iron ore deposit of Bailadila Range of India. Disjunctive kriging is applied firstly to compare estimates of the blocks by ordinary kriging and secondly to estimate benchwise local recoverable reserves of the orebody. Good agreement exists between block estimates by ordinary kriging and disjunctive kriging except for peripheral blocks with less borehole information. Estimation of benchwise reserves shows that the behavior of the distribution of grades is different in various benches. The study shows that disjunctive kriging can be applied successfully for estimation of local recoverable reserves in the case of a good grade hematite iron ore deposit.     

Computational methods for fitting statistical distribution models of multi-site binding equilibria

Statistical distribution models of multi-site binding equilibria have potential applicability in the study of acid-base and metal complexation chemistry of humic substances in soils, sediments, and natural waters. A mathematical derivation is presented for the general continuous model for the case of proton binding; computational methods are described for fitting numerically the parameters in such models. Among models considered are those based on nontruncated, truncated, and bimodal (mixed) distributions. Specific emphasis is placed on Gaussian distribution models.     

Dimension and entropy in the soil-covered landscape

Both the Hausdorff dimension and the K-entropy supply a measure of the irregularity of the landspace surface. The relationship between the two measures is investigated over a variety of terrains in Britain and a method of calculating the entropy is checked against an independent estimate of the dimension with reasonable agreement. The calculation of the K-entropy requires that the landscape surface be represented by an homogenous ergodic random field. This condition is satisfied by the tendency of soil-covered terrains to progressively approximate to a form well represented by a Gaussian field. Gaussian random fields can either be very smooth, possessing derivatives of all orders at every point or they are highly irregular and non-differentiable everywhere. Within the regular conceptualization the Rice-Kac theory is used to predict the numbers of crossing points and the extent of excursion sets. These predictions are tested against an example terrain from the High Weald of East Sussex with very good agreement, apart from predictions of local maxima. A worked example of the calculation of the K-entropy is given as an appendix. The potential role of information theory in geomorphology extends beyond the use made of entropy in this investigation. In particular ergodic theory has important practical and theoretical implications.     

激光束光学系统的变焦理论

从高斯光束经过光学系统的传输与变换规律出发，借助于高斯括号的性质，研究了激光束光学系统的变焦特性，导出了机械补偿式激光束变焦系统的变焦方程及补偿点位置方程，并给出了计算实例。     

Non-stationary random vibrations of a shear beam under high frequency seismic effects

Band-limited, non-stationary random vibrations of a shear beam are studied in order to investigate high frequency seismic effects on building structures. A solution for the evolutionary spectral density of the shear beam response to a time segment of band-limited white noise is given in a closed form. The root mean square (rms) and peak response of the shear beam are studied for two characteristic frequency bands: the conventional 1–4 Hz and higher frequency 4–16 Hz, characteristic for rockburst ground motion. Applying the criterion of equal excitation intensity with constant rms velocity, both responses are analyzed in detail and compared. The “switching off” fundamental mode for high frequency excitations results in characteristic overshoot of the stationary response level by the non-stationary rms response and an amplification of the response in the upper part of the shear beam.     

Gaussian beams in inhomogeneous media: A review

The paper outlines the most important results of the paraxial complex geometrical optics (CGO) in respect to Gaussian beams diffraction in the smooth inhomogeneous media and discusses interrelations between CGO and other asymptotic methods, which reduce the problem of Gaussian beam diffraction to the solution of ordinary differential equations, namely: (i) Babich’s method, which deals with the abridged parabolic equation and describes diffraction of the Gaussian beams; (ii) complex form of the dynamic ray tracing method, which generalizes paraxial ray approximation on Gaussian beams and (iii) paraxial WKB approximation by Pereverzev, which gives the results, quite close to those of Babich’s method. For Gaussian beams all the methods under consideration lead to the similar ordinary differential equations, which are complex-valued nonlinear Riccati equation and related system of complex-valued linear equations of paraxial ray approximation. It is pointed out that Babich’s method provides diffraction substantiation both for the paraxial CGO and for complex-valued dynamic ray tracing method. It is emphasized also that the latter two methods are conceptually equivalent to each other, operate with the equivalent equations and in fact are twins, though they differ by names. The paper illustrates abilities of the paraxial CGO method by two available analytical solutions: Gaussian beam diffraction in the homogeneous and in the lens-like media, and by the numerical example: Gaussian beam reflection from a plane-layered medium.     

Appreciation of Contributions by Georges Matheron and John Tukey to a Mineral-Resources Research Project

Georges Matheron (1930–2000) and John Tukey (1915–2000) were among the most prominent mathematical statisticians of the 20th century. Both men produced numerous important new theoretical and practical results. This personal appreciation of their work concentrates on contributions to mineral-resources research and describes their influence on my work in mineral-resource evaluation studies at the Geological Survey of Canada (1966–1983).