Fisher算法及加权马尔可夫链模型的耕地需求量预测方法——以山东省聊城市为例

根据聊城市1949-2007年的耕地数据,以耕地变化率来描述耕地数量变化的速率,借助Fisher最优分割法将耕地变化率状态分为5个等级,利用规范化后的各阶自相关系数为权重,运用加权马尔可夫链模型对聊城市耕地需求量进行预测。结果表明,预测值与实际值的相对误差为0.01%,预测结果非常理想,同时也验证了加权后的马尔可夫预测法更具科学性和实用性。     

Multi-period calibration of a semi-distributed hydrological model based on hydroclimatic clustering

Changing climatic conditions contribute to a time varying nature of hydrological responses over different temporal scales. The temporal dynamics of hydrological systems bring uncertainties into hydrological simulation which are different to uncertainties from spatial heterogeneity of soil and land use. This study develops a new approach to improve the calibration of hydrological based on hydroclimatic similarities. Six climatic indexes are integrated using Principal Component Analysis and Fuzzy C-mean Clustering methods to transform hydrological years into hydroclimatic periods. Parameter sets of SWAT model are calibrated independently for each period and used together to generate continuous simulation for a prairie watershed in southern Canada. Results indicate that the multi-period model exhibits comprehensive advantages over the traditional single-period model under various flow conditions. The simulation ability of the model is improved through using period-specific parameter sets in fitting the observations to compensate for deficiencies in the model structure or input data.     

Fuzzy inference system for identification of geological stratigraphy off Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

The analysis of well logging data plays key role in the exploration and development of hydrocarbon reservoirs. Various well log parameters such as porosity, gamma ray, density, transit time and resistivity, help in classification of strata and estimation of the physical, electrical and acoustical properties of the subsurface lithology. Strong and conspicuous changes in some of the log parameters associated with any particular geological stratigraphy formation are function of its composition, physical properties that help in classification. However some substrata show moderate values in respective log parameters and make difficult to identify the kind of strata, if we go by the standard variability ranges of any log parameters and visual inspection. The complexity increases further with more number of sensors involved. An attempt is made to identify the kinds of stratigraphy from well logs over Prydz bay basin, East Antarctica using fuzzy inference system. A model is built based on few data sets of known stratigraphy and further the network model is used as test model to infer the lithology of a borehole from their geophysical logs, not used in simulation. Initially the fuzzy based algorithm is trained, validated and tested on well log data and finally identifies the formation lithology of a hydrocarbon reservoir system of study area. The effectiveness of this technique is demonstrated by the analysis of the results for actual lithologs and coring data of ODP Leg 188. The fuzzy results show that the training performance equals to 82.95% while the prediction ability is 87.69%. The fuzzy results are very encouraging and the model is able to decipher even thin layer seams and other strata from geophysical logs. The result provides the significant sand formation of depth range 316.0- 341.0 m, where core recovery is incomplete.     

基于模糊数学的地质灾害危险性评价

陕西省引汉济渭工程跨越秦岭构造剥蚀山地和断陷盆地,地质环境条件差,发育地质灾害点72处。选取地质环境条件、地质灾害发育现状和地质灾害预测为评价指标,分别赋予隶属度值;将工程剖分为284个评价单元,采用模糊数学综合评判法计算每个单元的隶属度值,确定危险性小的单元255个,危险性中等的单元29个;说明工程主要位于危险性小的区段。     

日照茶树种植区典型茶园的土壤肥力状况评价

通过野外采样和室内测定,以日照茶树种植区3个典型茶园为研究对象,每个茶园分别取鸠坑、黄山群体、福鼎大白各3个品种。最终取得9种茶样生长地的土样,研究分析土样的pH。有机质,全N,P,K,有效N,P,K等指标的土壤养分含量状况,并以此为评价指标,运用模糊综合评判法,对3个茶园的土壤肥力质量进行了综合评价。结果表明,茶园肥力综合水平为北垛春〉碧波山庄〉北叶青i茶园土壤总体上,pH值较适中,有机质含量很缺乏,全N含量偏低,全P含量中等,全K含量较高,有效N含量很缺乏,有效P含量非常丰富,有效K含量中等,并据此提出了关于该地区3个典型茶园今后合理施肥的一些建议。     

Developing a robust SHM method for offshore jacket platform using model updating and fuzzy logic system

Structural monitoring is essential for ensuring the structural safety performance during the service life. The process is of paramount importance in case of the offshore jacket-type platforms due to the underwater structural parts subjected to the marine environmental conditions. This work is an experimental investigation on a laboratory model of a jacket platform with the objective of establishing a baseline finite element (FE) model for long-term structural health monitoring for this type of structures. A robust damage diagnosis system is also developed which is less sensitive to both the measurements and the modeling uncertainties. Experimental vibration tests are conducted on a physical platform model to obtain dynamic characteristics and then, the initial FE-model of the intact structure is developed to determine them numerically. Some differences between numerically and experimentally identified characteristics emerge due to various uncertainties in the FE-model and measured vibration data. To minimize these differences, initial FE-model is updated according to the experimental results. The updated FE-model is employed to predict the changes in the dynamic characteristics under variety of damage scenarios which are imposed by reducing the stiffness at the components of the model. Fuzzy logic system (FLS) and probabilistic analysis is developed for linguistic classification of damage and global damage diagnosis. Incorporation of the FLS fault isolation technique into FE-model updating method are proposed and evaluated for two different FLS methods to develop a vigorous damage diagnosis method. The efficiency of the technique is validated by different damage scenarios foreseen on the physical model. This technique is shown to be effective for diagnosing the presence of degradation and quantify it.     

基于模糊逻辑的新一代天气雷达径向干扰回波识别算法

在雷达信号处理器异常、信号受到外部电磁干扰时,雷达会观测到沿径向分布的条幅状干扰回波,这类非气象回波须在雷达估测降水等定量应用之前消除。为适用体扫数据及正在业务推行的单径向流数据,利用2017年7—8月收集的雷达单站PPI数据,针对径向干扰回波,提出一种基于模糊逻辑的识别方法,该方法只提取径向上的特征参量,建立隶属函数和判定阈值,进行识别。通过对算法的评估和业务应用,结果表明:该算法对径向干扰回波和降水回波的识别和消除效果较好,与原业务算法相比,CSI评分提高0.232,能明显提高径向干扰回波的准确识别,略微降低对降水回波的误消除;算法在业务上能够稳定运行,对于定量化应用（降水估测等）具有正贡献。      

模糊模型判识在斜坡破坏危险性分区中的应用

本文在探讨斜坡破坏危险性分区中,试用模糊模型判识方法,依斜坡演变趋势与影响因素间的关联性,进行模糊聚类和相容度的分析,从而对斜坡破坏危险性做以分级分区研究并对斜坡的环境质量做以评价。     

城市土地定级综合评价模型及其计算模型

城市土地定级综合评定是一项十分复杂的系统工程。本文选用模糊数学中多级综合评判的原理和方法,建立了城市土地定级的两级综合评价模型及评价指标。通过综合评定,可分选出与城市开发建设相适应的土地分类级别,为城市土地转让估价提供了定量依据。     

FUZZY ISODATA聚类法在地下水水化学分类中的应用

本文以杜热草场水化学资料为例,运用FUZZY ISODATA聚类方法对地下水水化学类型的划分进行了初步研究,并与传统的舒卡列夫法和基于模糊关系聚类法所得结果进行了对比,说明了本方法的可靠性。文中运用该法对研究区水化学成份划分的五种类型,基本符合本区地下水化学成份形成与分布规律,分类合理,计算简便,特别是对水化学成份差别不大的地区更为适用。