温度客观预报自动化业务系统

介绍了一以Ｔ６３数值预报产品为因子，用卡尔曼滤波方法作４８小时最高，最低温度客观预报方法及其自动化业务系统，能补充目前地市台温度预报主要依靠主观预报的不足，对温度有一定的预报能力。     

黄河小浪底水库诱发地震可能性初探

本文根据小浪底水库地区的地震地质和水文地质条件，浅析了水库诱发地震的可能性，并对其最大震级进行了多种方法的估算预测。     

基于煤矿“先抽后建”及资源开发的煤层气地面井位抽采部署及应用

针对目前煤矿\     

‘The magical operations of separation’: English elite schools’ on-line geographies,internationalisation and functional isolation

This paper examines the enduring separation and isolation of elite schools in England, in the face of increasing and substantial internationalisation. It presents the findings of a research project examining the geographical narratives produced by 30 elite schools on their websites and through their prospectuses, newsletters, blogs and twitter feeds. A critical visual and textual analysis was undertaken. Drawing on these data, the paper argues that elite schools remain highly focused on promoting and defending their separateness and isolation, despite extensive, documented international involvements. Work on institutional and carceral geographies and geographies of education have provided some theoretical justification for why this might be the case, and we explore these reasons here. The paper concludes with a plea for more work on the elite schooling sector in England, as their spatial practices (isolation and internationalisation) continue to have a weighty bearing upon society.     

Application of integrated back‐propagation network and self organizing map for flood forecasting

Much of the nonlinearity and uncertainty regarding the flood process is because hydrologic data required for estimation are often tremendously difficult to obtain. This study employed a back‐propagation network (BPN) as the main structure in flood forecasting to learn and to demonstrate the sophisticated nonlinear mapping relationship. However, a deterministic BPN model implies high uncertainty and poor consistency for verification work even when the learning performance is satisfactory for flood forecasting. Therefore, a novel procedure was proposed in this investigation which integrates linear transfer function (LTF) and self‐organizing map (SOM) to efficiently determine the intervals of weights and biases of a flood forecasting neural network to avoid the above problems. A SOM network with classification ability was applied to the solutions and parameters of the BPN model in the learning stage, to classify the network parameter rules and to obtain the winning parameters. The outcomes from the previous stage were then used as the ranges of the parameters in the recall stage. Finally, a case study was carried out in Wu‐Shi basin to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposal. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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塔河油田3区石炭系超深薄层碎屑岩储层预测研究

针对塔河油田3区石炭系卡拉沙依组地震数据很难识别薄砂体的问题,对比分析了采用地震资料提频处理、分频处理、储层高分辨率敏感参数反演等不同手段得到的储层预测结果,筛选出高分辨率储层敏感参数反演作为卡拉沙依组砂泥岩段储层主要预测手段.通过探讨砂泥岩对声波时差的响应,以及对比分析自然电位、自然伽马以及补偿中子孔隙度与声波时差的关系,确定自然电位与声波时差的相关性最好,由此选取自然电位作为最佳电性敏感参数参与高分辨率敏感参数反演预测.从井点、剖面、平面等方面检验和评价高分辨率储层预测成果,结果表明其反演预测效果较好,符合塔河油田3区石炭系的储层预测要求,实现了对石炭系主力砂体空间展布的解释与描述,建立了塔河油田3区石炭系卡拉沙依组储层模型.     

基于BP神经网络的地磁变化场预测研究

以现有地磁台站的长期海量观测数据为基础,忽略地磁场成因及众多影响因素的复杂作用机理,对地磁变化场的时空关联性进行分析,挖掘数据中蕴含的规律信息,进一步构建基于BP神经网络的地磁变化场预测模型。通过实际地磁台站的观测数据对模型预测结果进行验证,结果表明,对于任意选取的100组验证数据,均方根误差为4.8 nT,求解精度能够满足一般科学研究对地磁变化场的精度需求。