Seismic pattern recognition techniques to predict large eruptions at the Popocatépetl,Mexico, volcano

Using pattern recognition techniques, we formulate a simple prediction rule for a retrospective prediction of the three last largest eruptions of the Popocatépetl, Mexico, volcano that occurred on 23 April–30 June 1997 (Eruption 1; VEI ~ 2–3); 11 December 2000–23 January 2001 (Eruption 2; VEI ~ 3–4) and 7 June–4 September 2002 (Eruption 3; explosive dome extrusion and destruction phase). Times of Increased Probability (TIP) were estimated from the seismicity recorded by the local seismic network from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2005. A TIP is issued when a cluster of seismic events occurs under our algorithm considerations in a temporal window several days (or weeks) prior to large volcanic activity providing sufficient time to organize an effective alert strategy. The best predictions of the three analyzed eruptions were obtained when averaging seismicity rate over a 5-day window with a threshold value of 12 events and declaring an alarm for 45 days. A TIP was issued about six weeks before Eruption 1. TIPs were detected about one and four weeks before Eruptions 2 and 3, respectively. According to our objectives, in all cases, the observed TIPs would have allowed the development of an effective civil protection strategy. Although, under our model considerations the three eruptive events were successfully predicted, one false alarm was also issued by our algorithm. An analysis of the epicentral and depth distribution of the local seismicity used by our prediction rule reveals that successful TIPs were issued from microearthquakes that took place below and towards SE of the crater. On the contrary, the seismicity that issued the observed false alarm was concentrated below the summit of the volcano. We conclude that recording of precursory seismicity below and SE of the crater together with detection of TIPs as described here, could become an important tool to predict future large eruptions at Popocatépetl. Although our model worked well for events that occurred in the past, it is necessary to verify the real capability of the model for future eruptive events.     

Effect of gas emissions from Tianchi volcano (NE China) on environment and its potential volcanic hazards

One of largest eruptions in the Tianchi volcano during the Holocene occurred in about 1000 years ago[1―3]. The volcanic ash erupted had been found in Japan, which is more than 1000 km from the Tianchi volcanic vent[4,5]. Moreover, this eruption has been recognized in the study of Greenland ice core (GISP2)[6,7]. There have been many studies about eruption products of the Tianchi volcano, which dominantly focused on petrological, geochemical and volcanic eruptive dynamic aspects[8―10]. On…     

2017年全球活动火山时空分布以及阿贡火山喷发前后的形变特征

归纳总结2017年度全球81座活火山的活动情况,共计活动1058座次,平均每周记录20座活火山的活动信息。根据火山潜在喷发的危险性和火山活动的强弱程度对上述火山进行分级描述,火山活动主要反映了地球表层的构造活动,其中大角度俯冲带的弧后火山最为强烈,小角度的俯冲带、拉张裂谷和走滑为主的板块边界火山活动较为平静,火山活动频繁的印度尼西亚岛链是受灾最为严重的区域。预计全球火山活动将进一步加剧,印尼岛链受火山灾害威胁的程度依然较大。位于印尼岛链巴厘岛上的阿贡火山自2017年9月开始活动以来,整个喷发过程极具代表性,监测阿贡火山喷发过程可为全球典型火山喷发事件研究提供参考。     

内蒙锡林浩特鸽子山火山地质研究

鸽子山火山位于内蒙古自治区锡林浩特市东南,处于大兴安岭-大同新生代火山喷发带中段,是锡林浩特-阿巴嘎火山群中保存最为完好的一座玄武质火山。火山喷发物的分布面积约55km²,主要为降落火山渣、溅落熔结火山碎屑岩和熔岩流,成分主要为碧玄岩,晚期有少量的橄榄拉斑玄武岩,碧玄岩中含有较多二辉橄榄岩包体和辉石及歪长石巨晶。火山由锥体、熔岩流和火山碎屑席组成,锥体由早期的降落锥和晚期溅落锥复合而成。火山口经历多次塌陷而成为破火口。锥体西侧及北东侧出露两个仍保留了原始形态的熔岩溢出口,熔岩流类型为结壳熔岩,由多个岩流单元组成,局部地区的熔岩流中发育较多保存完好的喷气锥、喷气碟或喷气塔。火山碎屑席主要分布在锥体的东侧,厚度由锥体向外逐渐减薄。火山活动可分为早、晚两个阶段,早期为爆破式喷发,形成火山渣锥和碎屑席,属亚布里尼型喷发,晚期主要为溢流式喷发,形成溅落锥和大规模熔岩流,其活动时代为晚更新世末-全新世。     

Continuous chemical monitoring of volcanic gas in Izu-Oshima volcano, Japan

A new continuous monitoring system has been developed for the measurement of volcanic gas from the steam well located 3 km north from the summit of Izu-Oshima volcano, Japan. After removing the water vapor using three sequential dehydration methods, CO₂ and SO₂ contents are measured using IR sensors, and O₂ and H₂ using a zirconia sensor and a semiconductor sensor, respectively. This system has been in operation without any significant trouble for 3 years.The dehydrated volcanic gas from the well consists of a mixture of CO₂, O₂ and N₂. A decreasing trend of the CO₂ content was observed from 1995 to 1998 together with a decrease of volcanic activity. Seasonal changes have also been observed in CO₂ and O₂ contents, CO₂ being higher and O₂ lower in summer, which suggests larger contribution of magmatic components in summer. While changes in short-term variation in CO₂ and O₂ are influenced by atmospheric pressure changes; the CO₂ content correlates inversely with atmospheric pressure unlike O₂ with some hours delay. In contrast, the H₂ content increased intermittently up to 1200 ppm one to several hours after a sudden drop in the atmospheric pressure and without any apparent correlation with seasonal changes.This system allows us to study temporal variation in chemical composition of volcanic gas during quiescent periods of volcanic activity of Izu-Oshima volcano, and might help us detect anomalous changes before future eruptive events.     

The origin of K-feldspar megacrysts hosted in alkaline potassic rocks from central Italy: a track for low-pressure processes in mafic magmas

In situ Sr-isotope and microchemical studies were used to determine the provenance of K-feldspar megacrysts hosted in mafic alkaline potassic, ultrapotassic rocks and in differentiated rocks from two nearby volcanic apparatus in central Italy.

At Monte Cimino volcanic complex, mafic leucite-free ultrapotassic megacryst-bearing rocks of olivine latitic composition are associated with evolved latite and trachyte. Here, latites and trachytes straddle the sub-alkaline field. Age-corrected ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values (Sr_i) of the analysed Cimino olivine latites vary from 0.71330 and 0.71578 and strongly increase at constant Mg value. Latite and trachyte have lower Sr_i than olivine latites ranging between 0.71331 and 0.71361. Sr_i of K-feldspar megacrysts from olivine latites are between 0.71352 and 0.71397, but core and rim ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios within individual megacryst are indistinguishable. In all the mafic rocks, the megacrysts are not in isotopic equilibrium with the hosts. K-feldspar megacrysts from both the latite and trachyte have similar Sr-isotope compositions (Sr_i=0.71357–0.71401) to those in the olivine latites. However, Sr_i of megacryst in the trachyte vary significantly from core to rim (Sr_i from 0.71401 to 0.71383). As with the olivine latites, the K-feldspar megacrysts are not in isotopic equilibrium with bulk rock compositions of the latite or trachyte.

At Vico volcano, megacryst-bearing rocks are mafic leucite-free potassic rocks, mafic leucite-bearing ultrapotassic rocks and old trachytic rocks. The mafic leucite-bearing and leucite-free rocks are a tephri-phonolite and an olivine latite, respectively. A megacryst in Vico trachyte is isotopically homogeneous (Sr_i CORE=0.71129, RIM=0.71128) and in equilibrium with the host rock (Sr_i bulk ROCK=0.71125). Sr_i of megacryst from tephri-phonolite is clearly not in isotopic equilibrium with its host (Sr_i bulk ROCK=0.71158), and it increases from core (Sr_i=0.71063) to rim (Sr_i=0.71077). A megacryst in Vico olivine latite is isotopically homogeneous (Sr_i CORE=0.71066, RIM=0.71065), but not in equilibrium with the host rock (Sr_i bulk ROCK=0.71013).

The Sr isotope microdrilling technique reveals that Cimino megacrysts were crystallised in a Cimino trachytic magma and were subsequently incorporated by mixing/mingling processes in the latitic and olivine latitic melts. A model invoking the presence of a mafic sub-alkaline magma, which was mixed with the olivine latite, is proposed to justify the lack of simple geochemical mixing relation between Cimino trachytes and olivine latites. This magmatological model is able to explain the geochemical characteristics of Cimino olivine latites, otherwise ascribed to mantle heterogeneity.

The similarity of core Sr_i of megacrysts hosted in Vico tephri-phonolite and olivine latite suggests that the K-feldspar megacrysts are co-genetic. Isotopic equilibrium between megacryst and Vico host trachyte indicates that the trachyte is the parent of this megacryst. On the contrary, the megacrysts hosted in tephri-phonolite and olivine latite do not derive from the old trachytic magma because no diffusion process may explain the core to rim Sr isotope increase of the xenocryst hosted in the tephri-phonolite. The megacrysts hosted in the Vico mafic rocks might derive from a trachytic melt similar in composition to the old Vico trachytes.     

A prehistoric lahar-dammed lake and eruption of Mount Pinatubo described in a Philippine aborigine legend

The prehistoric eruptions of Mount Pinatubo have followed a cycle: centuries of repose terminated by a caldera-forming eruption with large pyroclastic flows; a post-eruption aftermath of rain-triggered lahars in surrounding drainages and dome-building that fills the caldera; and then another long quiescent period. During and after the eruptions lahars descending along volcano channels may block tributaries from watersheds beyond Pinatubo, generating natural lakes. Since the 1991 eruption, the Mapanuepe River valley in the southwestern sector of the volcano has been the site of a large lahar-dammed lake. Geologic evidence indicates that similar lakes have occupied this site at least twice before. An Ayta legend collected decades before Mount Pinatubo was recognized as a volcano describes what is probably the younger of these lakes, and the caldera-forming eruption that destroyed it.     

Evolution of Irruputuncu volcano,Central Andes,northern Chile

The Irruputuncu is an active volcano located in northern Chile within the Central Andean Volcanic Zone (CAVZ) and that has produced andesitic to trachy-andesitic magmas over the last ∼258 ± 49 ka. We report petrographical and geochemical data, new geochronological ages and for the first time a detailed geological map representing the eruptive products generated by the Irruputuncu volcano. The detailed study on the volcanic products allows us to establish a temporal evolution of the edifice. We propose that the Irruputuncu volcanic history can be divided in two stages, both dominated by effusive activity: Irruputuncu I and II. The oldest identified products that mark the beginning of Irruputuncu I are small-volume pyroclastic flow deposits generated during an explosive phase that may have been triggered by magma injection as suggested by mingling features in the clasts. This event was followed by generation of large lava flows and the edifice grew until destabilization of its SW flank through the generation of a debris avalanche, which ended Irruputuncu I. New effusive activity generated lavas flows to the NW at the beginning of Irruputuncu II. In the meantime, lava domes that grew in the summit were destabilized, as shown by two well-preserved block-and-ash flow deposits. The first phase of dome collapse, in particular, generated highly mobile pyroclastic flows that propagated up to ∼8 km from their source on gentle slopes as low as 11° in distal areas. The actual activity is characterized by deposition of sulfur and permanent gas emissions, producing a gas plume that reaches 200 m above the crater. The maximum volume of this volcanic system is of ∼4 km³, being one of the smallest active volcano of Central Andes.     

Characteristics and developmental mechanisms of mud volcanoes on the southern margin of the Junggar Basin,NW China

Mud volcanoes have provided much meaningful information about the deep Earth and the recent crustal and neotectonic movements in an area for over 200 years. However, the triggering mechanisms have puzzled geologists for a long time. This study investigated the factors controlling mud volcano activity and the triggering mechanisms of mud volcano eruptions on the southern margin of the Junggar Basin, NW China. The Baiyanggou, Aiqigou and Dushanzi mud volcanoes are all located along the Dushanzi Anticline, which belongs to the third anticline belt on the southern margin of the basin. The extensive, thick mudstone at depth provides a wealth of material for the formation of mud volcanoes. Simultaneously, the overpressure serves as the driving force for the eruption of the mud volcanoes. The torsional–compressional stress field created by the collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates not only enhanced the abnormal formational pressure in the region but also lead to the development of extensional faults in the core of the Dushanzi Anticline, which served as the conduits for the mud volcanoes. The continuous collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates and the regional torsional–compressional stress field may largely control the cyclical activity of the mud volcanoes and serve as their primary trigger mechanism. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterization of pyroclastic fall and flow deposits from the 1815 eruption of Tambora volcano,Indonesia using ground-penetrating radar

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is used to image and characterize fall and pyroclastic flow deposits from the 1815 eruption of Tambora volcano in Indonesia. Analysis of GPR common-mid-point (CMP) data indicate that the velocity of radar in the sub-surface is 0.1 m/ns, and this is used to establish a preliminary traveltime to-depth conversion for common-offset reflection profiles. Common-offset radar profiles were collected along the edge of an erosional gully that exposed approximately 1–2 m of volcanic stratigraphy. Additional trenching at select locations in the gully exposed the contact between the pre-1815 eruption surface and overlying pyroclastic deposit from the 1815 eruption. The deepest continuous, prominent reflection is shown to correspond to the interface between pre-eruption clay-rich soil and pyroclastics that reach a maximum thickness of 4 m along our profiles. This soil surface is distinctly terraced and is interpreted as the ground surface augmented for agriculture and buildings by people from the kingdom of Tambora. The correlation of volcanic stratigraphy and radar data at this location indicates that reflections are produced by the soil-pyroclastic deposit interface and the interface between pyroclastic flows (including pyroclastic surge) and the pumice-rich fall deposits. In the thickest deposits an additional reflection marks the interface between two pyroclastic flow units.