Seasonal Dependence of the North Pacific and North Atlantic SST Predictability and Forecast Skill

In this paper, the decadal predictability and forecast skill of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean were investigated by conducting three sets of perfect model forecast experiments using a global coupled general circulation model. The results show that the annual mean SSTA in the North Pacific is less predictable on decadal time scale, with the forecast skill notably weaker than that of the North Atlantic. By analyzing the predictability and forecast skill of seasonal mean SSTA, it is found that the decadal predictability and forecast skill of the winter mean (JFM) SSTA in the central and western North Pacific are significantly higher than those of other seasons, and the magnitude is comparable with that of the North Atlantic. The predictability and forecast skill of the North Atlantic SSTA also show seasonal variations. Further analysis indicates that the seasonal dependence of the SSTA decadal predictability and forecast skill in the North Pacific is due to the winter-to-winter reemergence mechanism of SSTA in the North Pacific, which results from the seasonal variation of the mixed layer depth of the North Pacific Ocean. While the seasonal dependence of the North Atlantic SSTA predictability and forecast skill might be related to seasonal variations of other processes, such as the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation. The results of this paper suggest that for decadal climate prediction, if the forecast skill of the seasonal mean is taken into account, we might obtain higher than annual mean forecast skill for some seasons.     

中国南部湿润半湿润丘陵山区不同粒级水系沉积物地球化学特征对比研究

不同景观条件下选取合适的采样粒级是准确地获取地球化学信息,提升地质找矿效果的关键。为研究中国南部湿润半湿润中低山丘陵景观区水系沉积物测量最佳采样粒级,本文在安徽省南部胡乐司—宁国墩地区开展了区域化探采样粒度方法技术试验,采集-60目和-10目~+80目两种粒级样品,采用波长色散X射线荧光光谱法和电感耦合等离子体质谱法为主体的配套分析方案和测试技术获取了全国区域化探扫面规定的40种元素高精度数据。研究表明:两种粒级水系沉积物中造岩元素背景含量与区域岩石背景值基本接近,其他微量元素多呈富集状态,以-10~+80目粒级中As、Au、Hg、Mo、Pb、Sb等成矿元素富集程度最强;-10~+80目粒级受后期表生改造作用影响较弱,最大限度保留了原生地球化学分布特征,并在准确圈定与矿化有关的异常和清晰反映矿致异常特征等方面明显优于-60目粒级。因此,建议在安徽省南部中低山丘陵景观区,选择-10~+80目粒级为水系沉积物测量的最佳采样粒级,研究结果可以为中国相似景观区地球化学勘查找矿水系沉积物测量采样粒级的选择提供参考。     

SMAP卫星辐射计在中国近海及沿岸的RFI特征分析

射频干扰RFI(Radio-Frequency Interference)的校正和抑制一直是微波遥感研究领域的重要问题之一。本文基于SMAP卫星2015年5月1日至5日L波段辐射计亮温数据对中国近海及沿岸的射频干扰进行了特征分析。研究发现RFI分布不均匀,主要集中在城市群及其周边地区;通过对比辐射计天线接收的亮温数据与射频干扰校正和抑制后的数据,发现研究区域主要的射频干扰(95%)的平均值为1.4 K,整体射频干扰平均值为2.5 K,标准差为6.5;研究区域中不同波段和极化的数据受到射频干扰影响较为相似,受射频干扰影响最大的是升轨的垂直极化数据,受影响最小的是升轨的水平极化数据。     

上游干支流洪水相关性对下游洪水频率分布的影响——以鄱阳湖抚河为例

较大流域下游的洪水往往是由上游干支流洪水叠加形成,而上游洪水变量一般会存在一定的空间相关性。为揭示流域不同来源洪水相关性对下游洪水频率分布特征的影响,本文选取江西省抚河流域作为研究实例,通过广义回归模型构建下游洪水变量对上游干支流洪水变量的条件分布,以此刻画上下游洪水变量之间的关系,然后基于二维Copula函数建立上游干支流洪水变量的联合概率分布,最后由全概率公式推导出下游洪水频率分布,在此基础上,进一步探讨上游洪水变量相关性对下游洪水频率分布特征的影响。结果表明,本文提出的洪水频率分布推导法对抚河李家渡站的洪水频率分布具有较好的拟合效果;上游洪水变量相关性是影响下游洪水频率分布的重要因素,具体来说,相关性的强度与尾部相关性对下游洪水频率分布的均值没有影响,但均对偏态系数C_v与峰度系数C_s等高阶统计特征有较为明显的影响,下游洪水频率分布的C_v值会随上游洪水变量相关性的增强呈现增加趋势,上尾相关性越强,C_v和C_s越大;流域上游洪水变量相关性强度及上尾相关性的增强都会导致下游极端洪水风险升高,此外,重现期较长的极端水文设计值对上游洪水变量相关性的变化更加敏感。     

中国关键矿产评价标准和清单的探讨

后工业化时代,关键矿产成为大国资源竞争的焦点.随着对关键矿产的需求不断增长,各国会更加关注其供应的稳定性、安全性和可持续性.本文通过对比分析世界主要国家或组织的关键矿产目录,对关键矿产的概念和内涵进行了探讨,阐述了我国关键矿产的评价标准和评价指标,通过对矿产的重要性、供应风险和稀缺性依次分析评价出35种关键矿产,并提出...