A multiscaling‐based intensity–duration–frequency model for extreme precipitation

Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a standard tool in urban water resources engineering and management. They express how return levels of extreme rainfall intensity vary with duration. The simple scaling property of extreme rainfall intensity, with respect to duration, determines the form of IDF relationships. It is supposed that the annual maximum intensity follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. As well known, for simple scaling processes, the location parameter and scale parameter of the GEV distribution obey a power law with the same exponent. Although, the simple scaling hypothesis is commonly used as a suitable working assumption, the multiscaling approach provides a more general framework. We present a new IDF relationship that has been formulated on the basis of the multiscaling property. It turns out that the GEV parameters (location and scale) have a different scaling exponent. Next, we apply a Bayesian framework to estimate the multiscaling GEV model and to choose the most appropriate model. It is shown that the model performance increases when using the multiscaling approach. The new model for IDF curves reproduces the data very well and has a reasonable degree of complexity without overfitting on the data.     

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

一种改进的高铁无砟轨道检测方法

无砟轨道的静态检测通常是沿着轨道线路对轨枕逐个检测,这样做虽然能够满足工程精度的需要但是工作效率较低。文中通过比较不同的插值方法的优缺点,最终选择通过三次样条插值对静态轨道检测的隔轨数据进行处理,并结合贵广高铁检测工程在采用不同的测量方案下,对高铁线路直线段和曲线段的插值结果进行分析。并且用内插后的轨检数据结果与连续测量后得到的轨检数据进行比较,得出不同条件下最有效、最准确的测量与数据处理的实施方案,工程实践证明,文中提出的检测与数据处理手段具有准确性和高效性。     

Biodiversity Assessment of Mammal and Bird Species from Camera Trap Data in Yanchiwan National Nature Reserve,Gansu Province,China

Camera traps serve as an important tool for monitoring species diversity. We used data from camera traps set for capturing snow leopards (Panthera uncia) in the Yanchiwan National Nature Reserve, Gansu Province, China, to assess species richness with respect to mammal and birds species. We also assessed survey efficiency for species detection, and conducted an initial analysis of species interactions. The survey effort of 10, 171 camera workdays yielded 2, 868 suitable animal image events involving 17 mammal and 20 bird species. Among these, the dhole (Cuon alpinus) is considered to be Endangered, the snow leopard and white-lipped deer (Cervus albirostris) Vulnerable, and the Pallas’s cat (Feli smanul), mountain weasel (Mustela altaica), Himalayan griffon (Gyps himalayensis) and cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) Near Threatened under the IUCN red list. Fourteen species were also listed as key protected wild animals according to China national standards. Both the rarefaction curves and richness estimators suggested our sampling for mammal and pheasant species is sufficient, while more survey efforts are still needed to detect other bird species. With a focus on the dominant species Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), occupancy models were used to estimate site use and detection probability for selected species, and to investigate predator-prey relationships between lynx on the one hand and woolly hare (Lepus oiostolus), pika (Ochotona spp.) and Tibetan partridge (Perdix hodgsoniae) on the other. We give recommendations on how to increase efficiency in camera-based species inventory and biodiversity monitoring.     

Arps递减开发模型

本文在Ａｒｐｓ递减产能预测模型的基础上提出了Ａｒｐｓ递减开发模型,提出了开发速度,采出程度等开发指标的数学关系式,分析了参数Ａｒｐｓ递减开发模型的影响,提出了开发初期Ａｒｐｓ递减开发模型的确定方法,便于开发初期决策,制作了Ａｒｐｓ递减开发模型的ｌｏｇＶｄ－ｌｏｇＲｐ图版,ｌｏｇＶｄ－ｌｏｇ（Ｄｔ）图版,ｌｏｇＲｐ－ｌｏｇ（Ｄｔ）图版,提出了开发中晚期Ａｒｐｓ递减开发模型的判断方法,三点抛物线法和三     

FLOW MECHANISMS AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN COMPOUND CHANNELS

IINTRODUCTIONCompoundortWo-stagechannelshavereceivedconsiderableattentioninrecentyearsduetotheirrelevancetofloodstudiesinnaturalrivers,theirsignificanceinunderstandingrivermol'phology,andtheiruseinsomefloodalleviationschemeswherethefloodplainshavebeenartificiallyloweredtoproduceengineeredchannels.ThispaperreviewsworkwhichhasbeenundertakenintheUKFloodChannelFacility(FCF)overthepastdecade.TheACewasbuiltatHRWallingfordin1986,asalargescalenationalfacilityforhydraulicengineeringstUdies.T…     

Variability in quartz OSL signals caused by measurement uncertainties: Problems and solutions

We simulated the variability in measured quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) signals and dose response curves (DRCs) caused by measurement uncertainties, including counting statistics and instrumental irreproducibility. We find that these measurement errors can give rise to large variations in the observed luminescence signal and contribute to among-aliquot or among-grain scatter in DRCs and equivalent dose (D_e) values. Different measurement systems (i.e., luminescence readers) may have different counting statistics properties and, hence, may exhibit differing extents of variation in the observed OSL signal, even for the same sample. Our simulation shows that the random measurement uncertainties may result in some grains or aliquots being ‘saturated’ (that is, the measured natural signal is consistent with, or lies above, the saturation level of the measured DRC) and that the rejection of these ‘saturated’ grains may result in a truncated D_e distribution, with D_e underestimation for samples with natural doses close to saturation (e.g., twice the characteristic saturation dose, D₀). We propose a new method to deal with this underestimation problem, in which standardised growth curves (SGCs) are established and the weighted-mean natural signal (L_n/T_n) from all measured grains is projected on to the corresponding SGCs to determine D_e. Our simulation results show that this method can produce reliable D_e estimates up to 5D₀, which is far beyond the conventional limit of ∼2D₀ using the standard SAR procedure.     

套管井偶极弯曲波频散向高频偏移的特性

对套管井偶极弯曲模式波的频散特性进行了系统的数值考察、实例对比和分析.发现套管井弯曲波频散曲线随地层横波速度的降低,特别是地层横波速度小于2000 m·s^-1以下,会迅速移向高频区,偶极弯曲波基础模式主频散区（或截止频率）可出现在13 kHz以上,以致超出了现行低频偶极子声波测井仪的激发与接收频带,这是一过去没有被研究者注意到的现象,并进一步被现场实例所证实.研究表明控制套管井弯曲波频散曲线主频散区位置的主要是钢套管的厚度和地层横波速度.对地层横波速度大于井孔流体声速的快速地层,在钢套管壁厚一定（8 mm）的情况下,频散曲线主频散区可移至11 kHz以上,可能出现的最大可能频域位置是同一井孔内径,井外全钢时的频散曲线上等于、小于地层横波速度那一段,这对各种地层和套管参数都是适用的.对地层横波速度小于等于井孔流体声速（1500 m·s^-1）的慢速地层,弯曲波频散曲线随地层横波速度的降低移向高频区的特点更为明显,可能移至16 kHz以上;而套管厚度的影响,也比快速地层大的多,对地层横波速度小于1380 m·s^-1的慢速地层,无论用多高的频率激发,都不能在现行使用的各类套管井（壁厚6~12 mm）中用偶极声波测井仪测到弯曲模式波.     

Residual slip of sliding blocks induced by near‐fault ground motions

The response of a rigid block supported on a horizontally moving foundation through a dry‐friction contact is investigated to near‐fault ground motions. Such motions can be thought of as consisting of a coherent component (‘pulse’) and an incoherent component, which can be described as a band‐limited ‘random noise’. The equation of motion of this strongly nonlinear system is reduced to a normalized form that reveals important parameters of the problem such as the critical acceleration ratio. The response of the sliding block to a set of uniformly processed near‐fault motions, covering a sufficiently wide range of magnitudes, is evaluated numerically for selected discrete values of the acceleration ratio. For each value of the critical acceleration ratio, the numerically computed residual slips are fitted with a Weibull (Gumbel type III) extreme value probability distribution. This allows the establishment of regression equations that describe accurately design sliding curves corresponding to various levels of non‐exceedance probability. The analysis reveals that the coherent component of motion contributes significantly to the response of the sliding block. Furthermore, the relevant acceleration in specifying the critical acceleration ratio is the (normalized) amplitude, α_{H_pulse}, of the pulse and not the (normalized) amplitude of the incoherent component α_H. Finally, the incoherent component is described quantitatively in terms of the root‐mean‐square acceleration a_RMS, and an attempt is made to understand its influence on the response of the sliding block. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dark matter and rotation curves of stars in galaxies

The dark matter accretion theory (around a central body) of the author on the basis of his 5‐dimensional Projective Unified Field Theory (PUFT) is applied to the orbital motion of stars around the center of the Galaxy. The departure of the motion from Newtonian mechanics leads to approximately flat rotation curves being in rough accordance with the empirical facts. The spirality of the motion is investigated.