A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy)

The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km² caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.     

X线侧位片与高分辨率CT对鼻骨骨折的对比研究

目的　通过86例鼻骨骨折的鼻骨X线侧位片与高分辨率CT(HRCT）对比研究，确定HRCT检查对鼻骨骨折的诊断价值。材料与方祛　86例鼻外伤或/和He、面外伤的患者均进行了鼻骨X线侧位摄影、HRCT扫描检查，经集体讨论，由有经验的放射医师对全部影像资料进行分析并进行统计学处理。结果HRCT显示所有的86例鼻骨骨折，但在此86例骨折中X线平片只显示了35例阳性，包括15例鼻骨汇合部骨折，7例双侧鼻骨骨折，3例复合骨折(鼻骨汇合部及双侧鼻骨骨折)，l0例鼻区骨折。X线平片显示5l例为阴性。结论　对鼻骨骨折的诊断，HRCT明显优于鼻骨X线侧位片，HRCT扫描检查可提高X线隐性鼻骨骨折的诊断，并可明确鼻骨骨折的类型、范围和程度，为临床诊断和治疗提供可靠的依据。     

城市震害高危害小区的研究和GIS的实现技术

论述了在城市地震灾害中如何考虑诸方面因素来评价城市的灾害轻重分布情况。中建立坑危害小区分析模型，设想将城市划分等面积网格，给每个单元网格赋予灾害指数，以确定城市中受灾较为严重的区域，为求灾指挥提供决策信息。同时，将高危害小区的模型研究结果转化为计算机技术可以实现的GIS模型。该研究结果已应用于泰安市防震减灾示范研究项目中。     

Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake：Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxi1 Region as on Example

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a.     

河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。     

Placing geographies of public health

Following the move to a 'post–medical' geography, a large amount of research has come to focus on public health issues. This paper explores these current geographies of public health and argues for the development of a more critical perspective. In particular, it draws on commentary that has emerged out of debates that have taken place within a body of literature usually identified as the critical 'new' public health. The paper goes on to argue that such scholarship offers crucial insights for the production of a critical geography of public health.     

多氯联苯湿地生物降解规律预测及污染风险分析

建立了一个数学模型来预测多氯联苯湿地生物降解过程。该模型全面考虑了多氯联苯湿地生物降解的各子过程,包括:吸附/解吸、土壤屏蔽、扩散和生物降解,利用模型,预测了多氯联苯湿地生物降解的规律性及处理时间、处理终点;利用Monte-Carlo法,进行了多氯联苯湿地生物降解污染风险分析,结果表明,在采用基地现有处理方式的情况下,经过8年处理,土壤中4-Cl-PCBs不低于69.4%被降解的可能性为75%,此时土壤中能够继续污染外部环境的4-Cl-PCBs部分不超过10.9%的可能性为75%;土壤中4-Cl-PCBs全部生物降解完毕所需处理时间不超过16.20年的可能性为75%,最后被土壤不可逆屏蔽的残余物不超过20.9%的可能性为75%。     

岩石受压破裂的ULF和LF电磁前兆信号

实验观测到了4类岩性、18块样品在单轴压力下直至破裂发生全过程中的ULF和LF电磁前兆信号。这些不同频率的信号是零散出现的，其形态为一组组脉冲，宽度为4ms～16ms，幅度为0．1mV～1．4mV。实验发现具同一谐振频率的天线收到的信号频次与其相对于裂缝的位置和方位有关。结果还表明，电磁前兆信号的频度与岩样强度有关，抗压强度高的岩样电磁前兆信号多。微破裂可能产生了偶电层，在破裂过程中向外辐射，产生了LF频段的磁信号，ULF磁信号则主要由压磁效应产生。     

Parameters affecting maximum fluid transport in large aperture fractures

We present results of laboratory experiments to study the behavior of liquids moving in unsaturated wide-aperture fractures. A 5-mm-thick glass plate cut with a 1.7-mm aperture was used as a fractured rock analog to study behavior of film and capillary droplet flow modes. Flow rates ranged between 0.6 and 6.0 ml/min. Variability in the ambient barometric pressure, resulting from weather conditions, seemed to play a role in the natural selection of flow mode. For droplet mode, constant input conditions resulted in highly variable transport properties within the fracture. The advancing meniscus exhibited a dynamic contact angle that was a function of the droplet speed and much larger than the static contact angle. Flow rate was reduced due to the larger contact angle. Analytical expressions for droplet velocity and flow capacity are presented as a function of the dynamic rather than the static contact angle.     

Carbon dioxide and radon gas hazard in the Alban Hills area (central Italy)

The sudden and catastrophic, or slow and continuous, release at surface of naturally occurring toxic gases like CO₂, H₂S and Rn poses a serious health risk to people living in geologically active regions. In general this problem receives little attention from local governments, although public concern is raised periodically when anomalous toxic-gas concentrations suddenly kill humans or livestock. For example, elevated CO₂ concentrations have been linked to the death of at least 10 people in the central Italian region of Lazio over the last 20 years, while it was the CO₂ asphyxiation of 30 cows in a heavily populated area near Rome in 1999 which prompted the present soil-gas study into the distribution of the local health risk. A detailed geochemical survey was carried out in an area of about 4 km² in the Ciampino and Marino districts, whereby a total of 274 soil-gas samples were collected and analysed for more than 10 major and trace gas species. Data were then processed using both statistical and geostatistical methods, and the resulting maps were examined in order to highlight areas of elevated risk. General trends of elevated CO₂ and Rn concentrations imply the presence of preferential pathways (i.e. faults and fractures) along which deep gases are able to migrate towards the surface. The CO₂ and Rn anomalous trends often correspond to and are usually elongated parallel to the Apennine mountain range, the controlling structural feature in central Italy. Because of this fundamental anisotropy in the factors controlling the soil-gas distribution, it was found that a geostatistical approach using variogram analysis allowed for a better interpretation of the data. With regard to the health risk to local inhabitants, it was found that although some high risk areas had been zoned as parkland, others had been heavily developed for residential purposes. For example, many new houses were found to have been built on ground which has soil-gas CO₂ concentrations of more than 70% and radon values of more than 250 kBq m⁻³. It is recommended that land-use planners incorporate soil-gas and/or gas flux measurements in environmental assessments in areas of possible risk (i.e. volcanic or structurally active areas).