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The paper first recalls briefly a methodological framework to assess landslide hazard and risk analysis in terms of predisposition, triggering andrevealing factors. This framework, that reflects the mechanisms involved in the landslide, is based on the Geotechnical Characterisation of slope movements proposed by Vaunat et al. (1994) and Leroueil et al. (1996). The Geotechnical Characterisation can be schematized by a 3-D matrix having the following axes: types of movement; types ofmaterial; and the four stages of movement: pre-failure, failure, post-failure andreactivation. For each relevant element of this 3-D matrix, there is a characterisationsheet including: the controlling laws and parameters, the predisposition factors, thetriggering or aggravating factors, the revealing factors and the consequences of the movement. The paper focuses afterwards on the post-failure stage, which generallyis the most destructive, and on the mobility index. It is shown that this laterindex can be described as the product of sub-indices associated with failure, brittlenessof the material, ability of the soil to develop pore pressures, geometry of the moving soil mass and characteristics of the terrain. It is also shown how these aspectscan be incorporated into the Geotechnical characterisation of slope movements. This seems to provide a rational basis for examining slope movements at the post-failure stage and assessing associated risks. 相似文献
53.
Natural Hazards - Strong earthquakes in the proximity of densely inhabited urban areas pose one ofthe most complicated disaster management situations faced by societies today. Herethe experience... 相似文献
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Understanding the nature and impacts of tsunamis within the Aegean Sea region ofGreece is of importance to both the academic community and those organisationsconcerned with tsunami disaster management. In order to determine hazard and riskand consequently pre-plan mitigative strategies, it is necessary to analyse historical(documentary) and geological records of former tsunami events. Therefore, firstlythis paper provides a summary of the written sources of information on Aegeantsunamis paying particular attention to published catalogues. From the availabledata, it is noted that a large number of events have been reported during the last3500 years. Secondly, the paper provides a review of the published on-shore(terrestrial) geological records of tsunamis within the region. From this analysisit is seen that little geological evidence has been identified for the large numberof tsunamis reported in the catalogues. Thirdly, the paper considers the reliabilityof the written and geological records and how problems of accuracy, coverage,extent and reliability, may have potential implications for the estimation of hazardand risk. The paper concludes by making recommendations for disaster managers,geologists and historians to work closely together. 相似文献
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根据华北地区1999年和2001年两期高精度GPS观测结果,通过与1992,1995,1996年和1999年这几期资料的比较,发现近两年的运动与前有所不同,主要表现为:(1)阴山单元和鄂尔多斯单元之间显示为压性运动的性质,但比较微弱,它们之间的边界带上似乎有左旋走滑运动,但从整体上看并不显著。(2)晋冀鲁单元和燕山单元的整体活动性不如以前,各单元内部存在着较明显的差异运动,并山单元和晋冀鲁单元的北部存在着比较显著的东西向挤压,北京地区则表现为南北向挤压。(3)晋冀鲁单元南部与胶辽鲁苏单元的南部的趋势活动呈张性,优势运动方向为东南,这样的结果可能表明,华北目前存在着应力扰动行为,大同与天津之间的区域是受其影响最大的地区,该区有可能成为未来几年中强地震活动的一个主体地区。 相似文献
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J. J. Bommer M. B. Benito M. Ciudad-Real A. Lemoine M. A. Lpez-Menjívar R. Madariaga J. Mankelow P. Mndez de Hasbun W. Murphy M. Nieto-Lovo C. E. Rodríguez-Pineda H. Rosa 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(5)
The small Central American republic of El Salvador has experienced, on average, one destructive earthquake per decade during the last hundred years. The latest events occurred on 13 January and 13 February 2001, with magnitudes Mw 7.7 and 6.6, respectively. The two events, which were of different tectonic origin, follow the patterns of the seismicity of the region although neither event has a known precedent in the earthquake catalogue in terms of size and location. The earthquakes caused damage to thousands of traditionally built houses and triggered hundreds of landslides, which were the main causes of fatalities. The earthquakes have clearly demonstrated trends of increasing seismic risk in El Salvador due to rapid population expansion in areas of high shaking and landslide hazard, exacerbated by deforestation and uncontrolled urbanisation. The institutional mechanisms required for the control of land use and building practice are very weak and present a major obstacle to risk mitigation. 相似文献
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I. Alberico L. Lirer P. Petrosino R. Scandone 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2002,116(1-2)
The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km2 caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps. 相似文献
59.
X线侧位片与高分辨率CT对鼻骨骨折的对比研究 总被引:17,自引:0,他引:17
目的 通过86例鼻骨骨折的鼻骨X线侧位片与高分辨率CT(HRCT)对比研究,确定HRCT检查对鼻骨骨折的诊断价值。材料与方祛 86例鼻外伤或/和He、面外伤的患者均进行了鼻骨X线侧位摄影、HRCT扫描检查,经集体讨论,由有经验的放射医师对全部影像资料进行分析并进行统计学处理。结果HRCT显示所有的86例鼻骨骨折,但在此86例骨折中X线平片只显示了35例阳性,包括15例鼻骨汇合部骨折,7例双侧鼻骨骨折,3例复合骨折(鼻骨汇合部及双侧鼻骨骨折),l0例鼻区骨折。X线平片显示5l例为阴性。结论 对鼻骨骨折的诊断,HRCT明显优于鼻骨X线侧位片,HRCT扫描检查可提高X线隐性鼻骨骨折的诊断,并可明确鼻骨骨折的类型、范围和程度,为临床诊断和治疗提供可靠的依据。 相似文献
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