Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system

Abstract

Quality is key to ensuring that the potential offered by weather radar networks is realized. To achieve optimum quality, a comprehensive radar data quality management system, designed to monitor the end-to-end radar data processing chain and evaluate product quality, is being developed at the UK Met Office. Three contrasting elements of this system are described: monitoring of key radar hardware performance indicators; generation of long-term integrations of radar products; and monitoring of radar reflectivity factor using synthesized observations from numerical weather prediction model fields. Examples of each component are presented and ways in which the different types of monitoring information have been used to both identify issues with the radar product data quality and help formulate solutions are given.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Harrison, D., Georgiou, S., Gaussiat, N., and Curtis, A., 2013. Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1327–1342. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841316     

Hydrochemical dynamics of the “lake–spring” system in the crater of El Chichón volcano (Chiapas,Mexico)

El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, Mexico) erupted violently in March–April 1982, breaching through the former volcano–hydrothermal system. Since then, the 1982 crater has hosted a shallow (1–3.3 m, acidic (pH ∼ 2.2) and warm (∼ 30 °C) crater lake with a strongly varying chemistry (Cl/SO₄ = 0–79 molar ratio). The changes in crater lake chemistry and volume are not systematically related to the seasonal variation of rainfall, but rather to the activity of near-neutral geyser-like springs in the crater (Soap Pool). These Soap Pool springs are the only sources of Cl for the lake. Their geyser-like behaviour with a long-term (months to years) periodicity is due to a specific geometry of the shallow boiling aquifer beneath the lake, which is the remnant of the 1983 Cl-rich (24,000 mg/l) crater lake water. The Soap Pool springs decreased in Cl content over time. The zero-time extrapolation (1982, year of the eruption) approaches the Cl content in the initial crater lake, meanwhile the extrapolation towards the future indicates a zero-Cl content by 2009 ± 1. This particular situation offers the opportunity to calculate mass balance and Cl budget to quantify the lake–spring system in the El Chichón crater. These calculations show that the water balance without the input of SP springs is negative, implying that the lake should disappear during the dry season. The isotopic composition of lake waters (δD and δ¹⁸O) coincide with this crater lake-SP dynamics, reflecting evaporation processes and mixing with SP geyser and meteoric water. Future dome growth, not observed yet in the post-1982 El Chichón crater, may be anticipated by changes in lake chemistry and dynamics.     

定点连续形变长周期频段信息研究

研究了定点连续形变长周期频段信息和块体构造活动的关系。研究结果表明，在川滇菱形块体内，定点连续形变观测获得的长周期频段信息中的长期趋势变化除去仪器零漂等局部干扰外，基本上都和块体运动方向或者块体边界主干断裂活动方式相一致，表明在定点连续形变长周期频段信息中，也存在有与地震孕育有关的地壳形变信息。对其在预报上的作用做了初步研究。     

大地电磁地震前兆初步分析系统

介绍了大地电磁(MT)地震前兆初步分析系统的建立及主要功能,运用该系统对2003年度祁连山地震带8个大地电磁复测点进行了MT多参量综合对比、变化幅度的计算及异常前兆判定,取得较好效果。     

第二届国际地球岩石圈活动的地球物理监测研讨会在俄罗斯举行

简要介绍第二届国际地球岩石圈活动的地球物理监测研讨会的情况。会议于2005年9月12～16日在俄罗斯新西伯利亚市鄂毕河畔的科学城举行,来自6个国家的90多名代表参加了此次国际会议。会议的报告丰富多彩,科学家就地球岩石圈的地球物理活动监测研究进行了多方面的讨论,出版了6个专题的89篇研究论文。俄罗斯、中国、蒙古和哈萨克四国交界区的代表还就研究2003年9月27日发生的7．9级地震草拟了国际合作协议。     

频谱成像技术在稠油热采地震监测中的应用

频谱成像技术可有效的描述地质反射层厚度的非连续性和岩性的非均质性,其在理论上主要是依据薄层反射的调谐原理,过去通常采用以离散傅里叶变换为基础的算法,但是,该方法存在着明显的局限性,因为估算的地震振幅谱的重要特征是所选时窗长度的函数.如果所选时窗过短,振幅谱会与变换窗函数褶积,失去频率的局部化特征,而且过短的时窗会使子波的旁瓣呈现为单一反射的假象.增加时窗长度,会改善频率的分辨率.但如果所选时窗过长,时窗内的多个反射会使振幅谱以槽痕为特征,很难分清单个反射的振幅谱特征.由于在实际运用中,以傅里叶变换相关的算法的时窗问题,难以选择好时窗长度,而且无法定量分析时窗长度产生的偏差,因而会使振幅谱的估算产生偏差.以小波变换为基础的时频分析技术成了非平稳性信号的重要分析工具,在很多实际应用中已取代了傅里叶变换的分析方法.以小波变换为基础的瞬时谱分析技术能得到精确的时频分析结果,同时避免了时窗问题.它反映出了储层在纵向上时间及厚度上变化情况和横向上的地质不连续性的信息,因此能使解释人员快速而有效地描述储层特征的空间变化.     

Spatial and temporal variability of hard-bottom macrofauna in a disturbed coastal lagoon (Sacca di Goro, Po River Delta, Northwestern Adriatic Sea)

The sessile and mobile macrobenthos on artificial hard bottoms was studied in 12 stations of the Sacca di Goro lagoon, a brackish, highly stressed water basin in the delta of the river Po, open to the Northwestern Adriatic Sea. Three sampling surveys were carried out in June and September 2000 and June 2001 in order to make three types of temporal comparisons: (i) on a seasonal scale, before and after a summer dystrophic event; (ii) on an annual basis, before and after the works of excavation of a canal through the outer sand bank; (iii) on a multiannual scale, comparing the data with those of a survey carried out in 1988. The biocoenoses did not show large fluctuations after a moderately severe summer dystrophic crisis, while the digging of the canal caused clear changes in the macrobenthos community structure after one year. The long-term comparison showed a shift in the community patterns after a decade.     

Correlation of seismic activity and fumarole temperature at the Mt. Merapi volcano (Indonesia) in 2000

In this paper we present densely sampled fumarole temperature data, recorded continuously at a high-temperature fumarole of Mt. Merapi volcano (Indonesia). These temperature time series are correlated with continuous records of rainfall and seismic waveform data collected at the Indonesian–German multi-parameter monitoring network. The correlation analysis of fumarole temperature and precipitation data shows a clear influence of tropical rain events on fumarole temperature. In addition, there is some evidence that rainfall may influence seismicity rates, indicating interaction of meteoric water with the volcanic system. Knowledge about such interactions is important, as lava dome instabilities caused by heavy-precipitation events may result in pyroclastic flows. Apart from the strong external influences on fumarole temperature and seismicity rate, which may conceal smaller signals caused by volcanic degassing processes, the analysis of fumarole temperature and seismic data indicates a statistically significant correlation between a certain type of seismic activity and an increase in fumarole temperature. This certain type of seismic activity consists of a seismic cluster of several high-frequency transients and an ultra-long-period signal (<0.002 Hz), which are best observed using a broadband seismometer deployed at a distance of 600 m from the active lava dome. The corresponding change in fumarole temperature starts a few minutes after the ultra-long-period signal and simultaneously with the high-frequency seismic cluster. The change in fumarole temperature, an increase of 5 °C on average, resembles a smoothed step. Fifty-four occurrences of simultaneous high-frequency seismic cluster, ultra-long period signal and increase of fumarole temperature have been identified in the data set from August 2000 to January 2001. The observed signals appear to correspond to degassing processes in the summit region of Mt. Merapi.     

2001年四川雅江6.0级地震序列的破裂特征及发震构造

2001年雅江地震序列(主要地震是2月14日的Ms5．1和2月23日的Ms6．0地震)是四川地区近13年来的重要地震。选择2001年1月1日～6月30日期间，四川地震台网至少5个清晰的初动到时所记录的雅江地震序列中88次地震，并对其作了重新定位，对其中较大的13次地震用四川地区地震台网P波初动资料作了震源机制解。88次地震震源深度分布在2～16km，优势深度为9～llkm。前震、5．1级地震及其余震、6．0级地震及余震都紧邻孜河断裂分布，且按时段划分的震中优势分布方位与孜河断裂走向都是北西向。根据雅江地区近期大地形变场物质运移方向，选定了震源机制解的破裂面。13次较大地震震源机制解的主压应力P轴具有较大的垂向分量，水平投影方向为南东；地震类型都是左旋、走滑一正断型或正断一走滑型；大部分地震破裂面走向为北西一南东，倾向南西。根据前震、5．1级地震及其余震、6．0级地震及其余震震中优势分布方位，以及大多数较大地震破裂面走向和倾向，认为穿过震区的走向北西、倾向南西的孜河断裂是这次雅江地震序列的发震断裂。     

发展钻孔应变观测的战略构想

钻孔应变观测正在成为一种与测震和GPS相提并论的地壳形变观测。曾经处于领先地位的我国钻孔应力一应变观测的发展需要回顾历史,面对现实,借鉴国外,放眼长远。建立比测基地、实验场和完善国家前兆监测网,三位一体,应该成为发展我国钻孔应变观测的基本方针。