基于GIS的地震安全性评价数据管理的研究

目前的地震安全性评价数据管理方法过于陈旧,不利于数据的查询和再利用。通过对这一问题的深入分析,针对安评数据的多元性特点,结合GIS的优势,提出了利用GIS技术对地震安全性评价数据进行管理的方法,并设计出了数据库管理系统的基本框架。该系统的建立,将为地震安全性评价数据管理、查询和再利用提供便利。     

桃曲坡水库灌区节水灌溉信息化管理系统的研究

阐述了节水灌溉信息化的重要性和必要性,探讨建设完善的灌区节水灌溉信息化管理系统。介绍信息管理系统、调度运行系统、水务公开系统、运行监控管理系统、遥测管理系统、灌溉用水预报系统、决策支持系统的基本结构和内容。实践证明,管理系统能够有效地提高灌区水资源的利用率和用水管理效率。     

Paleofire reconstruction for high-elevation forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, with implications for wildfire synchrony and climate variability in the late Holocene

Here, we present two high-resolution records of macroscopic charcoal from high-elevation lake sites in the Sierra Nevada, California, and evaluate the synchroneity of fire response for east- and west-side subalpine forests during the past 9200 yr. Charcoal influx was low between 11,200 and 8000 cal yr BP when vegetation consisted of sparse Pinus-dominated forest and montane chaparral shrubs. High charcoal influx after ∼ 8000 cal yr BP marks the arrival of Tsuga mertensiana and Abies magnifica, and a higher-than-present treeline that persisted into the mid-Holocene. Coeval decreases in fire episode frequency coincide with neoglacial advances and lower treeline in the Sierra Nevada after 3800 cal yr BP. Independent fire response occurs between 9200 and 5000 cal yr BP, and significant synchrony at 100- to 1000-yr timescales emerges between 5000 cal yr BP and the present, especially during the last 2500 yr. Indistinguishable fire-return interval distributions and synchronous fires show that climatic control of fire became increasingly important during the late Holocene. Fires after 1200 cal yr BP are often synchronous and corroborate with inferred droughts. Holocene fire activity in the high Sierra Nevada is driven by changes in climate linked to insolation and appears to be sensitive to the dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

工程项目中的目标管理

将投资方、建设者及工程利益方的建设期望与硬性要求具体化,以此形成项目目标,然后根据项目的结构特点对项目目标层层分解,建立工作分解结构（Work Breakdown Structure）,二者形成目标矩阵和目标系统,作为工程项目的管理对象,可以让工程项目管理目标明确;对目标系统中的重要目标加强监控,设置对应监管岗位,然后利用PDCA循环实施目标管理,可以尽可能减少目标执行中的偏离。各大目标间管理的动态平衡是目标管理的基本特点。     

Mushroom production as an alternative for rural development in a forested mountainous area

Wild mushrooms are recognized as important non-wood forest products in mountainous ecosystems, but their real potential for generating rural economies has not been fully evaluated due to the difficulties in obtaining reliable productivity data, minimizing their true potential as contributor to rural economies. Mushroom yield models based on large data series from Pinus forest ecosystems in the region of Catalonia(Spain), combined with data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory allow us to estimate the potential mushroom productivity by forest ecosystems. The results of 24,500 tons/yr of mushrooms of which 16,300 tons are classified as edible and 7,900 tons are commonly marketed demonstrate the importance of mushroom productions in Catalonian pine forests, mostly located in mountainous areas where the development of agricultural activities is limited. Economic mushroom value is estimated at 48 million € for the edible mushroom and 32 million € for those corresponding to marketable yields, confirming the potential of this non-wood forest product. These production results and corresponding economic values provide a basis for the incorporation of wild mushrooms as significant non-wood forest products in the development of forest policies in mountainous areas.     

Species richness,diversity and density of understory vegetation along disturbance gradients in the Himalayan conifer forest

We investigated whether species richness, diversity and density of understory herbaceous plants differed along logging(gap) and grazing(primarily by cattle) disturbance gradients, and sought to identify drivers of richness, diversity and density of understory vegetation of logged sites. A factorial experiment was conducted in the mixed conifer forest of Gidakom in Western Bhutan. Levels of the logging treatment included small(0.15 – 0.24 ha), medium(0.25 – 0.35 ha) and large(0.36 – 1.31 ha) gaps. The grazing treatment included grazed(primarily by cattle) and ungrazed(where herbivores were excluded by a fence) plots nested within each gap. Data were collected from 12 gaps(4 replicates at each level of logging) using the point intercept method. Shannon Weaver Diversity and Margalef's indices were used to estimate species diversity and describe species richness, respectively. Soil samples were analyzed for pH and nutrients. The interaction effect of logging and grazing was significant(p≤0.001) only on species diversity. Relative to ungrazed areas, species diversity was significantly higher(0.01≤p≤0.05) in medium grazed gaps. Under grazed conditions, soil P was negatively correlated with gap size and species diversity. While species diversity was positivelycorrelated(0.01≤p≤0.05) with soil N in grazed plots species richness was positively correlated(0.001≤p≤0.01) with soil N in ungrazed plots. Relative density of Yushania microphylla and Carex nubigena were higher under ungrazed conditions. Our study suggests that the combined effect of cattle grazing and logging results in higher species diversity of understory vegetation in medium and grazed gaps in mixed conifer forests of Bhutan,whereas increase or decrease in relative density of major species is determined primarily by the independent effects of grazing and logging. From management perspective, forest managers must refrain from creating large gaps to avoid loss of nutrients(mainly P and N), which may eventually affect tree regeneration. Managers intending to maintain understory vegetation diversity must consider the combined effects of grazing and logging, ensuring low to moderate grazing pressure.     

Spatial patterns of subsistence extraction of forest products – An indirect approach for estimation of forest degradation in dry forest

Successful implementation of a forest based climate change mitigation mechanism such as REDD + depends on robust and available methods for measurement and estimation of forest degradation. Currently available methods are for application in single-hit degradation incidents in high density humid forests. However, it has been suggested that gradual degradation, especially in dry forests, is more widespread and that methods are needed for measuring and estimating associated emissions. We assess the applicability of an indirect remote sensing approach for monitoring forest degradation: infrastructure and other indicators of human activities are mapped and used for spatial prediction of degradation activities. For proxy variables we tested distance to forest edge, distance to roads, and population pressure calculated as the sum of inhabitants per pixel in the Landscan 2010 population raster dataset multiplied by an inverse power distance decay function. Wood extraction incidents were counted in 160 plots in two dry forests in Tanzania with infrastructural entry from one side only. We analyzed the spatial pattern of forest degradation as a function of the chosen proxy variables using zero inflated count models which allows for an excess of zero counts. A jack-knife bootstrap using 10,000 runs was applied to optimize the population distance decay function. We found that the impact of forest degradation is highest near high population concentration, above 1000 individuals. Furthermore, distance to nearest forest edge or road was a significant proxy for estimation of the number of wood extraction incidents (p < 0.001), where degradation incidents decreased with increasing distance to forest edge or road. At 3000 m from the forest edge towards the forest core the probability of wood extraction is 20% and dropping. The population distance decay function was found to have a steep decline indicating a relative small impact on forest degradation. Further, and perhaps larger, studies are needed to be able to recommend a distance decay function for general application in Tanzania. However, the results are useful for understanding spatial patterns of wood harvesting as a function of distance to nearest forest edge or road in dry Miombo woodland areas with average population pressure at 1685 ± 101 persons within a radius of 4000 m from the wood extraction sites.     

当前我国湿地保护中存在的问题和保护建议

基于我国对湿地的认知变化及保护历程,结合第二次全国湿地普查结果,分析当前我国湿地保护中存在的主要问题,并提出针对性建议,主要包括:落实保护红线、创新保护格局;完善法律法规、推进湿地保护绩效考核;实施生态补偿机制、提升湿地造血功能;加强科技支撑及人才建设、建立智能管理体系;宣扬湿地文化,推进社会主流生态价值观形成等。     

Using individual transferable quotas (ITQs) to achieve social policy objectives: A proposed intervention

ITQs offer environmental and economic benefits, including better conservation of a fish stock and greater profitability for fishers. With some limitations, they achieve fairly good alignment between the profit incentive and stewardship objectives. Nevertheless, critics have objected to ITQ schemes because of such factors as the “armchair fishing” phenomenon, unfairness to the public (the owner of the fish), economic and social damage to remote communities, and increased concentration within the fishery. Economists generally dismiss these as distributional issues rather than matters of efficiency or economics, but economic principles are clearly not the only factors that may require attention or action from a government or regulator. This paper proposes an intervention that addresses these concerns within the context of an ITQ scheme. The intervention does not reduce the permanence or values of ITQs, and therefore retains the benefits that ITQs are designed to deliver. Nevertheless, the intervention addresses the criticisms identified above. Modifications of the intervention may enable additional goals and benefits to be achieved as well.     

Can management effort be predicted for marine protected areas? New considerations for network design

This study examined the level of management complexity (simultaneously occurring licensed human activities) within the currently designated Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in Scottish waters and through modelling and statistical analysis determined which variables play an important role in defining the level of management effort required for each MPA. This study utilised surveyed distribution data for Priority Marine Features and modelled distribution data showing potential “Most Suitable” Priority Marine Feature habitat through the species distribution model, Maxent. Prediction indicators were developed through Spearman׳s Rank coefficients and a linear regression model. Results showed that, (1) there was a significant negative correlation between the management complexity score within 5 km of a MPA and the number of casework events (defined as any work or statutory consultation associated with an MPA, such as planning applications, discharges or new fisheries); and (2) a significant positive correlation between the number of casework events and location, number of features, and the type of features and most suitable scores. Calculations showed that Lochs Duich, Long and Alsh, Loch Sunart, Loch Sween and Loch Creran may potentially require most effort to manage once they are designated as MPAs. This study showed that it is possible to evaluate options within an MPA network to achieve cost effective options for the biodiversity and socio-economic objectives of MPA networks and that some MPAs are likely to be more efficient than others in terms of management time.