Seasonal variation of the total electron content, maximum electron density and equivalent slab thickness at a South-American station

Total electron content (TEC) and foF2 ionosonde data obtained at Tucumán (26.9°S; 65.4°W) from April 1982 to March 1983 (high solar activity period) are analyzed to show the seasonal variation of TEC, NmF2 (proportional to square of foF2) and the equivalent slab thickness EST. Bimonthly averages of the monthly median for January–February, April–May, July–August and October–November have been considered to represent summer, autumn, winter and spring seasons, respectively. The results show that the higher values of TEC and maximum electron density of F2-layer NmF2 are observed during the equinoxes (semiannual anomaly). During daytime, both in TEC and in NmF2 the seasonal or winter anomaly can be seen. At nighttime, this effect is not observed. Also, the observed NmF2 values are used to check the validity of International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) to predict the seasonal variability of this parameter. In general, it is found that averaged monthly medians (obtained with the IRI model) overestimate averaged monthly median data for some hours of the day and underestimate for the other hours.     

Flood hazards in the upper and middle Odra River basin – A short review over the last century

During the 20th century many floods of different intensity and extent have occurred on the Odra River and its tributaries. On the basis of long-term water level observations five major floods, that affected the entire upper and middle Odra River basin, were chosen for further analysis: June 1902, July 1903, August 1977, August 1985 and July 1997. However, hazardous floods were not only those that covered the whole upper and middle Odra River basin, so several local floods were also studied. Detailed historical analysis was made of meteorological conditions, with special emphasis on precipitation patterns and amounts. Then, on the basis of flood peak time occurrence, the stages of flood wave formation were formulated. The natural flood wave of the Odra River is often modified by hydro-technical infrastructure, the development and improvement of which is briefly described in this paper. In conclusion, a comparison of flood wave characteristics such as rising time, falling time, duration, peak flow and volume is presented.     

Testing a statistical curve‐fitting procedure for quantifying sediment populations within multi‐modal particle‐size distributions

This paper describes a series of tests designed to evaluate the capacity of a personal computer (PC) based statistical curve‐fitting program called MIX to quantify composite populations within multi‐modal particle‐size distributions. Three natural soil samples were analysed by a Coulter Multisizer, and their particle‐size distributions analysed using MIX software to identify the modes, standard deviations and proportions of their composite populations. The particle‐size distributions of the three natural soil samples were then numerically combined in equal proportions using a spreadsheet program to create synthetic particle‐size distributions of known populations. MIX was then tested on the synthetic particle‐size distributions to see if the modes and proportions it identified were similar to those modes and proportions known to characterize the synthetic particle‐size distributions. The main outcome is that MIX can very accurately describe the modal particle size and proportions of the major composite populations within a particle‐size distribution. However MIX has difficulty in identifying small populations (those contributing <10 per cent of a total particle‐size distribution), particularly when they are located in the central sections of particle‐size distributions, overlain by larger populations, or when positioned in the fine tails of distributions. Despite these minor shortcomings, MIX is a valuable tool for the examination and interpretation of particle‐size data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial damage distribution of August 16,2003,Inner Mongolia,China,M_S=5.9 earth-quake and analysis

Introduction The ground motion is generally estimated by attenuation relation in seismic hazard assesment.The attenuation relation is usually the function of earthquake magnitude and distance.Actually the focal mechanism and other source parameters may also have significant impacts on the ground motion,especially in the near-source region.Recent post-earthquake investigations show that the damages have close relation with the closest fault-plane distance.On August16,2003,a MS=5.9earthquake o…     

Geostatistical simulation of random fields with bivariate isofactorial distributions by adding mosaic models

This work deals with the geostatistical simulation of a family of stationary random field models with bivariate isofactorial distributions. Such models are defined as the sum of independent random fields with mosaic-type bivariate distributions and infinitely divisible univariate distributions. For practical applications, dead leaf tessellations are used since they provide a wide range of models and allow conditioning the realizations to a set of data via an iterative procedure (simulated annealing). The model parameters can be determined by comparing the data variogram and madogram, and enable to control the spatial connectivity of the extreme values in the realizations. An illustration to a forest dataset is presented, for which a negative binomial model is used to characterize the distribution of coniferous trees over a wooded area.     

Kinetic energy–rainfall intensity relationship for Central Cebu, Philippines for soil erosion studies

In the study of soil erosion, specifically on detachment of soil particles by raindrop impact, kinetic energy is a commonly suggested indicator of the raindrop's ability to detach soil particles from the soil mass. Since direct measurement of kinetic energy requires sophisticated and costly instruments, the alternative approach is to estimate it from rainfall intensity. The present study aims at establishing a relationship between rainfall intensity and kinetic energy for rainfalls in Central Cebu, Philippines as a preface of a wider regional investigation.

Drop size distributions of rainfalls were measured using the disdrometer RD-80. There are two forms of kinetic energy considered here. One is kinetic energy per unit area per unit time (KE_R, J m⁻² h⁻¹) and the other is kinetic energy per unit area per unit depth (KE, J m⁻² mm⁻¹). Relationships between kinetic energy per unit area per unit time (KE_R) and rainfall intensity (I) were obtained using linear and power relations. The exponential model and the logarithmic model were fitted to the KE–I data to obtain corresponding relationships between kinetic energy per unit area per unit depth of rainfall (KE) and rainfall intensity (I). The equation obtained from the exponential model produced smaller standard error of estimates than the logarithmic model.     

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.     

基于正交多项式逼近法的岩土参数概率分布推断

针对岩上参数样本容量较大的情况,基于数值分析中的逼近原理,直接根据试验样本值,运用勒让德正交多项式来拟合岩土参数的概率密度函数,并用K-S检验法从理论上证明所求的密度函数的正确性和实用性。     

Earthquakes and soil liquefaction in flood stories of the ancient Near East

Flood stories in the Hebrew Bible and the Koran appear to be derived from earlier flood stories like those in the Gilgamesh Epic and still earlier in the Atrahasis. All would have their source from floods of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

The Gilgamesh Epic magnifies the catastrophe by having the flood begin with winds, lightning, and a shattering of the earth, or earthquake. Elsewhere in Gilgamesh, an earthquake can be shown to have produced pits and chasms along with gushing of water. It is commonly observed that earthquake shaking causes water to gush from the ground and leaves pits and open fissures. The process is known as soil liquefaction. Earthquake is also a possible explanation for the verse “all the fountains of the great deep (were) broken up” that began the Flood in Genesis. Traditionally, the “great deep” was the ocean bottom. A more recent translation substitutes “burst” for “broken up” in describing the fountains, suggesting that they erupted at the ground surface and were caused by an earthquake with soil liquefaction. Another relation between soil liquefaction and the Flood is found in the Koran where the Flood starts when “water gushed forth from the oven”. Soil liquefaction observed erupting preferentially into houses during an earthquake provides a logical interpretation if the oven is seen as a tiny house. A case can be made that earthquakes with soil liquefaction are embedded in all of these flood stories.