PRELIMINARY STUDY ON FLASH FLOODS IN TARIM RIVER BASIN

Flashfloodsaretheimportanteventsofthehydrologicalregimeofriversinaridareas.IntheTarilncaver(Fig.1),northwesternChina,flashfledarebeingmonitored.TheobSerVeddataandinvestigationdemonstratethedifferenceintime,place,frequencyandintensityoftheiroccurrences.Therearethreet~offlagescommontotheThermcaverbasin.AlmOSteveryyea-rhighwateroccursinmonthesofJuly,AugUstandseptembercausedbyablationrunoff.However,themostdamagingflowSarefromoccasionalflashfindsbyinstenserainstormandglacierlakeoutburstflags(…     

Algorithms for Lunar Flash Video Search, Measurement, and Archiving

Lunar meteoroid impact flashes provide a method to estimate the flux of the large meteoroid flux and thus their hazard to spacecraft. Although meteoroid impacts on the Moon have been detected using video methods for over a decade, the difficulty of manually searching hours of video for the rare, extremely brief impact flashes has discouraged the technique’s systematic implementation. A prototype has been developed for the purpose of automatically searching lunar video records for impact flashes, eliminating false detections, editing the returned possible flashes, and archiving and documenting the results. Several utilities for measurement, analysis, and location of the flashes on the moon included in the program are demonstrated. Application of the program to a year’s worth of lunar observations is discussed along with examples of impact flashes.     

Episodic flood inundations of the northern plains of Mars

Throughout the recorded history of Mars, liquid water has distinctly shaped its landscape, including the prominent circum-Chryse and the northwestern slope valleys outflow channel systems, and the extremely flat northern plains topography at the distal reaches of these outflow channel systems. Paleotopographic reconstructions of the Tharsis magmatic complex reveal the existence of an Europe-sized Noachian drainage basin and subsequent aquifer system in eastern Tharsis. This basin is proposed to have sourced outburst floodwaters that sculpted the outflow channels, and ponded to form various hypothesized oceans, seas, and lakes episodically through time. These floodwaters decreased in volume with time due to inadequate groundwater recharge of the Tharsis aquifer system. Martian topography, as observed from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter, corresponds well to these ancient flood inundations, including the approximated shorelines that have been proposed for the northern plains. Stratigraphy, geomorphology, and topography record at least one great Noachian-Early Hesperian northern plains ocean, a Late Hesperian sea inset within the margin of the high water marks of the previous ocean, and a number of widely distributed minor lakes that may represent a reduced Late Hesperian sea, or ponded waters in the deepest reaches of the northern plains related to minor Tharsis- and Elysium-induced Amazonian flooding.     

Design event selection in bivariate hydrological frequency analysis

Abstract

In the bivariate analysis of hydrological events, such as rainfall storms or flood hydrographs, the choice of an appropriate return period for structure design leads to infinite combinations of values of the related random variables (e.g. peak and volume in the analysis of floods). These combinations are generally not equivalent, from a practical point of view. In this paper, a methodology is proposed to identify a subset of the critical combinations set that includes a fixed and arbitrarily chosen percentage in probability of the events, on the basis of their probability of occurrence. Therefore, several combinations can be selected within the subset, taking into account the specific characteristic of the design problem, in order to evaluate the effects of different hydrological loads on a structure. The proposed method is applicable to any type of bivariate distribution, thus providing a simple but effective rule to narrow down the infinite possible choices for the hydrological design variables. In order to illustrate how the proposed methodology can be easily used in practice, it is applied to a study case in the context of bivariate flood frequency analysis.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Sheng Yue

Citation Volpi, E. and Fiori, A., 2012. Design event selection in bivariate hydrological frequency analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1506–1515.     

A comparative study of the atmospheric circulations associated with rainy-season floods between the Yangtze and Huaihe River Basins

Here we present the results from the composite analyses of the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields associated with rainy-season for the selected floods cases over the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins for the 21 years(1990–2010),using the daily rain gauge measurements taken in the 756 stations throughout China and the NCEP/reanalysis data for the rainyseasons(June–July)from 1990 to 2010.The major differences in the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins are as follows:for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin,the South Asia high center is located further east than normal,the blocking high over the Urals and the Sea of Okhotsk maintains,and the Meiyu front is situated near 30°N whereas for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin,the South Asia high center is further west than normal,the atmospheric circulations over the mid and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere are of meridional distribution,and the Meiyu front is situated near 33°N.In addition,there are distinct differences in water vapor sources and associated transports between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins.The water vapor is transported by southwesterly flows from the Bay of Bengal and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin whereas by southeast monsoons from the eastern and southern seas off China and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin.     

区域性极端骤发干旱与传统干旱事件形成过程的对比

2009/2010年云贵地区（YGR）和2013年夏季中南地区（CSC）发生了近几十年以来最严重的干旱事件。文中对比了两次干旱事件的发展速度,基于水分收支原理,诊断影响干旱发展的物理过程。结果显示,CSC干旱发展前,温度升高,蒸散发增加,土壤湿度减少,高温和降水减少对干旱有触发作用;而YGR的降水减少使干旱开始发展。CSC干旱事件发展迅速,YGR干旱事件发展缓慢,同时前者干旱的维持和恢复时间也短于后者,这些差异与蒸散发过程强弱有关。CSC干旱事件发展阶段,蒸散发过程强,平均为4.7 mm/d,8 d时间,土壤湿度从45%减少到20%,促使干旱快速形成（典型骤发干旱）。YGR干旱发展阶段,蒸散发过程弱,平均为1.7 mm/d,土壤湿度从45%减少到20%历时2个多月（传统干旱）。蒸散发的强弱主要与区域大气柱的水汽净辐散有关。CSC干旱发展阶段,其大气柱水汽净辐散达每天3.1 kg/m²,增强了陆气水分交换,使蒸散发远大于降水,土壤湿度快速下降,加快干旱发展速度。YGR的区域大气柱水汽净辐散为每天1.1 kg/m²,只有CSC的1/3,使干旱发展缓慢。两个干旱事件的大气柱水汽净辐散主要发生在经向方向,即由区域北界相对较强的经向水汽输送引起。     

Climatic effects on ice phenology and ice-jam flooding of the Athabasca River in western Canada

ABSTRACT

In cold region environments, any alteration in the hydro-climatic regime can have profound impacts on river ice processes. This paper studies the implications of hydro-climatic trends on river ice processes, particularly on the freeze-up and ice-cover breakup along the Athabasca River in Fort McMurray in western Canada, which is an area very prone to ice-jam flooding. Using a stochastic approach in a one-dimensional hydrodynamic river ice model, a relationship between overbank flow and breakup discharge is established. Furthermore, the likelihood of ice-jam flooding in the future (2041–2070 period) is assessed by forcing a hydrological model with meteorological inputs from the Canadian regional climate model driven by two atmospheric–ocean general circulation climate models. Our results show that the probability of ice-jam flooding for the town of Fort McMurray in the future will be lower, but extreme ice-jam flood events are still probable.     

Photogrammetric and laser altimetric reconstruction of water levels for extreme flood event analysis

This paper assesses the feasibility of estimating water levels using digital photogrammetry. A common problem during an extreme flood event is that automated water level recorders do not record the highest water levels, as a result of instrument malfunctioning. This paper explores two possible solutions to this problem based upon data acquired using synoptic remote sensing methods. The first method requires: (a) high-resolution elevation data (for example, in the form of a digital elevation model for the floodplain); and (b) information on the planimetric position of the maximum flood extent, such as from debris lines (known as wrack lines) visible on aerial imagery flown after the event. The planimetric data can then be used to segment the topographic data in order to identify water level elevations. The second method uses a digitial photogrammetric approach and is suitable where no topographic data are available, but aerial imagery is available, flown after the event. Provided this imagery is of the right scale, digital photogrammetric analysis may be used to identify the elevations of wrack lines visible on the imagery. In this paper, the second of these options is compared with the first. The research shows that desktop photogrammetric methods, using 1:4500 scale imagery, can yield water level estimates that are precise to ±0·147 m, on the basis of check data obtained from lidar data. This is a worst possible estimate of the acquired precision given uncertainties in the lidar data. When compared with the first option, based upon segmenting lidar data using flood outlines, the photogrammetric approach was found to be preferable given both the quality of the lidar and uncertainties over how to segment it.     

Sinuosity evolution along an incising channel: New insights from the Jordan River response to the Dead Sea level fall

The geomorphic evolution of the Jordan River in recent decades indicates that interaction between incision and high-magnitude floods controls sinuosity changes under increasing mouth gradients during base-level fall. The evolution of the river was analyzed based on digital elevation models, remotely sensed imagery, hydrometric data, and a hydraulic model. The response varies along the river. Near the river mouth, where incision rate is high and a deep channel forms, overbank flooding is less likely. There, large floods exert high shear stress within the confined channel, increasing sinuosity. Upstream, near the migrating knickzone channel gradients also increase, incision is more moderate and floods continue to overtop the banks, favoring meander chute cutoffs. The resulting channel has a downstream well-confined meandering segment and an upstream low-sinuosity segment. These new insights regarding spatial differences along an incising channel can improve interpretations of the evolution of ancient planforms and floodplains that responded to base-level decline. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.