Hydrodynamic characteristics of the Tam Pokhari glacial lake outburst flood in the Mt. Everest region,Nepal

The Tam Pokhari glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), which occurred in 1998 in the Mt. Everest region of Nepal, was evaluated using hydrodynamic models to gain a better understanding of the flow behaviour. The flood wave was analysed separately under rigid and erodible boundary conditions. In both cases, the calculated dam‐breach hydrograph, which had a peak discharge of about 10 000 m³/s, was routed through the Inkhu River, which originates from the lake. The morphologic changes along the river were also analysed and the results were compared with satellite images, field observations and recorded data. In the case of rigid boundaries, the routing procedure gradually attenuated the peaks of the hydrographs to account for hydraulic pooling in narrow gorges and storage in the channel. In the case of erodible boundaries, such effects were minimized due to the increment in channel capacity associated with erosion by debris flow. The study revealed that the GLOF event produced a large‐scale debris flow. Additionally, the results revealed that erosion and deposition took place intermittently, but that approximately 440 000 m³ of sediment was deposited about 14 km downstream from the lake mouth. The calculated peak of the water and sediment mixture at 14·4 km was found to be 30 000 m³/s, which is almost 6 times as large as that observed when the rigid boundary conditions were used. Further, the increase in the peaks of the hydrographs due to sediment transport was the primary reason for the destruction associated with the GLOF. These findings suggest that the local sedimentology and topography, as well as other geo‐hazard conditions in the area, should be carefully evaluated before recommending any control measures against GLOFs in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

强雷区高层建筑雷电风险评估技术探讨

通过对某高层建筑物的雷电风险评估,雷电风险评估方法和从雷电环境特点、风险分量和损失类型、风险评估计算等方面对某高层建筑物的雷电风险评估,得到评估建筑物的雷电风险评估综合结论,并提出了具体的防护建议.     

GIS集成技术在天山公路地质灾害评价与决策中的应用研究

天山公路由于其特殊的复杂地形、地质条件及降雨等因素,严重影响其正常通行.因此,借助于GIS新技术手段优势,建立一套适合于天山公路特殊区域的评价决策支持系统,就显得尤其重要.天山公路地质灾害评价与决策支持信息系统的建立,首先在详细分析天山公路地质病害原理的基础上,收集公路沿线已有的基础地理、地学等资料,对照实地工作成果和遥感成果,结合数据库及遥感图像处理技术,按数据库规则进行相应的综合、整理、筛选、归纳及转换,建立以ArcGIS为数据平台的多源信息数据库.然后基于ArcEngine平台,开发一套集基础数据的采集、存储、管理、检索、图形编辑、空间模型分析、线路区域稳定性评价、公路地质选线,以及三维可视化飞行成果图形生成及输出为一体的地质灾害评价与决策支持信息系统操作应用平台.系统整合不同类型的数据资料和多媒体信息,实现了基于三维的空间信息查询和分析功能,势必为国土资源和交通建设管理部门提供一种可靠的决策管理应用平台.     

基于最大熵理论的降雨SPI研究

为了克服目前对标准化降水指数(SPI)计算必须首先假设服从某种分布的不足,依据最大熵理论分布对SPI进行计算,以东江流域为例,分别利用最大熵理论分布、Gamma分布、Weibull分布以及对数正态分布四种概率密度函数拟合多年不同时间尺度的降雨数据,并利用AIC、KS、AD法进行拟合度检验,最后将最大熵理论分布与Gamma分布计算的SPI结果进行对比分析。结果表明:相对于其他三种分布,最大熵理论分布的概率密度函数更适用于东江流域15个站点的3、6、12个月的降雨分布;在极端干旱(洪涝)的情况下,相对于Gamma分布,最大熵理论分布的SPI值更小(大),表明其对极端干旱(洪涝)的识别更为敏感。     

1995年3月19日新疆和硕5.0级地震烈度及震害评估

１９９５年３月１９日北京时间凌晨０２时０２分，新疆和硕县那音克乡喇嘛庙西发生５．０级中强地震。地震造成个别房屋倒塌，直接经济损失４５．１８万元。这次地震是包尔图活动断裂最新活动的表现。     

上海邻近海域风暴潮数据同化与特征分析

风暴潮是一种复杂的对众多因素敏感又备受关注的海洋现象。本文基于协方差局地化的集合卡尔曼滤波方法（EnKF）,选择201810号台风“安比”登陆上海的风暴潮过程,首次将海洋站和FVCOM数值模拟的不同来源、不同误差信息、不同时空分辨率的风暴潮进行数据同化融合,获得了逐72 h的上海海域风暴潮的最优解,进行了同化结果评估验证,并给出了集合样本数和Schur半径设置范围。结果表明,实测计算和数值模拟的风暴增减水之间均方根误差为0.20 m,实测和同化计算的风暴增减水之间均方根误差为0.07 m,准确度提高了65%;独立观测和同化计算的风暴增减水均方根误差为0.09 m,集合离散度与均方根误差比值为0.90,同化效果较好且可信;同化后的风暴增减水能够较好地刻画双峰增水、台风眼增水、增水锋面等特征,对于风暴潮研究、数值模拟结果订正、海洋防灾减灾等有重要意义。     

精-伊-霍铁路沿线雪害关键气象条件分析

运用气候统计学方法,分析了精—伊—霍铁路沿线雪害严重区域的气象条件,推算了对铁路工程设计和运营极为重要的最大风速设计极值和最大积雪深度设计值。     

The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions,unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems

ABSTRACT

The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs     

基于GIS/AHP集成的浙江省洪涝灾害风险评估

将GIS技术引入洪涝灾害风险评估,可以弥补传统方法评估结果空间化显示不足的缺点。本文针对浙江省洪涝灾害的发生特点,从危险性和易损性两方面选择了浙江省洪涝灾害的影响因素,包括降雨量、地形、河网密度、人口密度和耕地百分比等因子。运用GIS空间分析技术对各因子进行空间化,结合层次分析法（AHP）确定各影响因素的权重,进行浙江省洪涝灾害风险评估和制图,并基于SuperMap iObjects平台设计与开发了浙江省洪涝灾害风险评估系统。研究结果表明：浙江省发生洪涝灾害的风险普遍偏高,高风险区域位于浙北和浙东南的沿海地带,较高风险区域位于浙东、浙南和浙北地区及金衢盆地中间地区,中等风险区位于浙南的西面、浙北及浙西地区。本文分析结果可为浙江省洪涝灾害预防和管理提供决策依据。