Elastic models of seismic failure in the Valley of Mexico

Restricted parts of the Valley of Mexico have been plagued by swarms of small earthquakes during recent years. The cause of these events is puzzling, but they may relate to massive artificial changes in the hydrology of the lake-bed which underlies most of Mexico City. If the valley responds elastically, plane strain finite element calculations can be used to relate geologic and seismic structure to observed seismicity and overall stability of the valley. These calculations show that unstable zones and areas of local seismicity coincide if the triggering mechanism of the seismicity is related to variations of pore pressure and water load.In order to make such a connection it is necessary to ascribe the generating mechanism of the seismicity to the density and elastic modulus anomalies associated with the valley structure, and to suggest that the phenomenon that triggers this seismicity is related to changes in water content of the near surface formations.     

Digital modeling studies for evaluation of hydrogeological characteristics in Shadnagar granite basin,Andhra Pradesh,India

The use of digital models has increased significantly in recent years with the accessibility of fast computing machines. A variable dimensioned digital model was constructed for the Shadnagar granite basin using SPECTRUM-7 micro computer to integrate various hydrogeological characteristics and for their quantitative evaluation. The basin has an areal extent of 437 sq km and is demarcated with clear water divides in all directions. Transmissivity, recharge and discharge at each cell of the basin area were estimated by trial and error simulation of the hydrogeological phenomenon under steady state condition. Dynamic simulation at representative nodes facilitated the estimation of storage coefficient. The capability of the constructed model was established by the conformance of the simulated hydrographs with the actual behaviour of the ground water system. The entire studies ammended the earlier arrived estimates of various input/output hydrogeological parameters and evolved a methodology for efficient processing of aquifer simulation data     

IAP AGCM中短波辐射方案的改进研究II·短波辐射方案的改进

在Version 2的基础上,对短波辐射方案进行进一步的改进:引入了新增非灰体气体吸收效应、冰晶粒子形状效应和尺度效应以及云的不均匀性效应(称为Version 3)。数值模拟试验结果表明:Version 3能更好地模拟出全球冬、夏季的降水场、海平面气压场及地表气温场的主要分布特征,并且能相当准确地反映出这几个场的季节性变化特征。Version 3对这3个场的模拟能力明显优于原版本(Version 1)。此外,它对东亚地区的季风降雨具有很好的模拟能力,能较好地反映东亚区域降水的季节性变化。可见,Version 3为进一步研究云-辐射相互作用提供了很好的模式基础。本工作还清楚地表明,模式的进一步发展必须进行对相关物理过程中各个因子的更精确刻画,只有这样,模式才能得到更好的模拟能力。     

关中地区地磁比值Rq的变化与地震关系的分析

应用小波分析空间差分法分析了泾阳台、乾陵台、周至台和郑州台的Z分量的地磁磁静日Rg值的变化规律，结果显示，各台的磁静日Rg值有较一致的年变规律。分析泾阳台与其它各台的磁静日R。差值分析和小波变换，发现1998年1月5日泾阳4．8级地震前4个月内存在较明显的异常变化。可能反映了泾阳地震的震磁效应。对远离泾阳台、乾陵台的青海昆仑山口西8．1级地震，震前也有明显异常变化。     

印尼苏门答腊8.7级大震对中国陆区的影响

发生在2004年12月26日的印尼苏门答腊8．7级地震，是全球有地震台网以来100多年中记录到的少数几次特大地震之一。初步汇集了在中国陆区观测到的地震活动、地壳形变、地下流体等多学科震时和震后效应的异常变化，包括地震活动性（特别是云南地区）的显著增强；地壳形变观测，尤其是钻孔应变观测记录到地壳应力-应变的震时和震后显著变化，以及地下水温度、化学成分、特别是水位的突出变化。同时，还从库仑破裂应力触发、动态应力触发以及下地壳和上地幔流动变形机制等方面，对这些大震效应作了一些成因机理讨论。     

岱海14 C测年的现代碳库效应研究*

碳库效应的复杂性是影响建立湖泊沉积物高精度年代序列的一大障碍。本项研究通过我国内蒙古半干旱区封闭湖泊表层沉积物、湖水、现生沉水植物狐尾藻、现生鲤鱼鱼骨和湖岸表层土壤等一系列样品的¹⁴ C年代测定,表明现代岱海确实存在碳库效应。碳库效应年龄因湖水盐度在湖区的不均而有所变化,岱海西部湖区弓坝河径流补给量大,湖水盐度较东部稍低,碳库效应年龄也略小于东部湖区。表层沉积物中有机质包含浮游生物和沉水植物的混合信息,因而其碳库效应年龄较沉水植物年龄轻,岱海湖心表层沉积物碳库效应年龄在2000a左右。这一碳库效应年龄较通过沉积钻孔¹⁴ C年龄线性回归获得的年龄偏大,可能的原因是在时间序列上碳库效应并非恒定。     

论"单位涌水量就是导水系数"

单位涌水量是井抽水水位降深换算为1 m时的单井出水量;导水系数是含水层宽度为1 m时,地下水水力坡度为1时的单宽流量.二者之间从定义上看毫无关系,但它们的单位(m3/d·m)(m2/d)是相同的.笔者经过多年探讨和初步试验后发现,单位涌水量就是管井抽水所利用含水层的导水系数.     

Reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior using finite difference method and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Monte Carlo</Emphasis> simulation

Load displacement analysis of drilled shafts can be accomplished by utilizing the “t-z” method, which models soil resistance along the length and tip of the drilled shaft as a series of springs. For non-linear soil springs, the governing differential equation that describes the soil-structure interaction may be discretized into a set of algebraic equations based upon finite difference methods. This system of algebraic equations may be solved to determine the load–displacement behavior of the drilled shaft when subjected to compression or pullout. By combining the finite difference method with Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a probabilistic load–displacement analysis can be conducted. The probabilistic analysis is advantageous compared to standard factor of safety design because uncertainties with the shaft–soil interface and tip properties can be independently quantified. This paper presents a reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior by combining the finite difference technique for analyzing non-linear load–displacement behavior with Monte Carlo simulation method. As a result we develop probabilistic relationships for drilled shaft design for both total stress (undrained) and effective stress (drained) parameters. The results are presented in the form of factor of safety or resistance factors suitable for serviceability design of drilled shafts.     

A Combined Three-Dimensional Geological-Geostatistical-Numerical Model of Underground Excavations in Rock

Summary. This paper exploits geological and borehole geotechnical data obtained in the exploratory phase of a tunneling project to investigate in a first place if the kriging interpolation scheme may effectively reproduce the spatial variability of rock mass quality (Rock Mass Rating, RMR) in the vicinity of tunnels. For this purpose a quick solver in Fortran has been developed that performs variography analysis of 3D spatial data, fast kriging estimations of RMR between borehole sampling locations at the centroids of the elements of the numerical model, and model validation. For the purpose of an integrated underground excavation design, a step further is made by incorporating into the 3D mechanical numerical model of the rock mass, the three-dimensional (3D) solid geological model, thus coupling the geology with the ground (geotechnical) model (i.e. each element of the numerical model is assigned a geological material). The mechanical properties of each finite difference cell (or Representative Elementary Volume) of the ground model were then prescribed according to its geological type, the spatial heterogeneity of the rock mass expressed quantitatively with the kriging model, and the upscaling calculations of the mechanical properties of the intact rocks determined in the laboratory, based on the size-effect (strength dependence on size) and Damage Theory. Furthermore, a preliminary numerical simulation of the advance of unsupported tunnels in the model of the heterogeneous rock mass was performed for illustration purposes.     

Structural and fabric analyses of basal slip zone of the Jin’nosuke-dani landslide, northern central Japan: its application to the slip mechanism of decollement

We describe in detail the deformation structures and textures of a large-scale landslide body that developed in the Betto-dani Valley in northern central Japan. We studied the shape-preferred orientation of clasts and clay flakes and the development of internal shear planes within the slip zone of the landslide. The slip has an average rate of 5–10 cm/year under the overburden pressure of approximately 1.6 MPa; these values are similar to those of the proto-decollement zone of the Nankai accretionary prism in SW Japan. The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility of samples obtained from the slip zone reveals that the long axes of clay flakes define an imbricate structure. The slip was due to a long-term periodical creep, which occurs during the thaw seasons with an average slip rate of 0.16–0.32 μm/min. During the creep, the long axes of grains including clay flakes in the slip zone are developed from parallel to perpendicular to the slip direction. The observed textures provide a clue to elucidate the deformation textures and process in the decollement zone of the Nankai prism.