气候模式FIO-ESM对2015/16年厄尔尼诺的预测

Recently atmospheric and oceanic observations indicate the tropical Pacific is at the El Ni?o condition. However,it's not clear whether this El Ni?o event of this year is comparable to the very strong one of 1997/98 which brought huge influence on the whole world. In this study, based on the Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter(EAKF)assimilation scheme and First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model(FIO-ESM), the assimilation system is setup, which can provide reasonable initial conditions for prediction. And the hindcast results suggest the skill of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction is comparable to other dynamical coupled models. Then the prediction for 2015/16 El Ni?o by using FIO-ESM is started from 1 November 2015. The ensemble results indicate that the 2015/16 El Ni?o will continue to be strong. By the end of 2015, the strongest strength is very like more than 2.0°C and the ensemble mean strength is 2.34°C, which indicates 2015/16 El Ni?o event will be very strong but slightly less than that of 1997/98 El Ni?o event(2.40°C) calculated relative a climatology based on the years1992–2014. The prediction results also suggest 2015/16 El Ni?o event will be a transition to ENSO-neutral level in the early spring(FMA) 2016, and then may transfer to La Ni?a in summer 2016.     

Sampling strategies and square root analysis schemes for the EnKF

The purpose of this paper is to examine how different sampling strategies and implementations of the analysis scheme influence the quality of the results in the EnKF. It is shown that by selecting the initial ensemble, the model noise and the measurement perturbations wisely, it is possible to achieve a significant improvement in the EnKF results, using the same number of members in the ensemble. The results are also compared with a square root implementation of the EnKF analysis scheme where the analyzed ensemble is computed without the perturbation of measurements. It is shown that the measurement perturbations introduce sampling errors which can be reduced using improved sampling schemes in the standard EnKF or fully eliminated when the square root analysis algorithm is used. Further, a new computationally efficient square root algorithm is proposed which allows for the use of a low-rank representation of the measurement error covariance matrix. It is shown that this algorithm in fact solves the full problem at a low cost without introducing any new approximations.     

An application of Ensemble Kalman Filter in integral-balance subsurface modeling

Data assimilation method provides a framework to decrease the uncertainty of hydrological modeling by sequentially incorporating observations into numerical model. Such a process involves estimating statistical moments of different order based on the evolution of conditional probability distribution function. Because of the nonlinearity of many hydrological dynamics, explicit and analytical solutions for moments of state distribution are often impossible. Evensen [J Geophys Res 99(c5): 10143–10162 (1994)] introduced Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) method to address such problems. We test and evaluate the performance of EnKF in fusing model predictions and observations for a saturated–unsaturated integral-balance subsurface model. We find EnKF improve the model predictions, and also we conclude a good estimate of state variance is essential for the success of EnKF.     

Filtrate Quality from Different Filter Operations

A brief review of the literature on filtrate quality obtained in constant and variable declining rate operation systems is presented, with the general conclusion that both systems usually produce filtrate of similar quality, assuming the flow‐rate controllers in the constant flow rate system operate properly. A mathematical model of CR (constant rate) filters and VDR (variable declining rate) filters based on the model by Mackie and Zhao (1999) has been described and used to investigate filtrate quality under different operating conditions. A similar quality of filtrate was achieved in computations carried out for both modes of operation, while the total head loss was much lower in the VDR mode. For the same time of filter runs slightly better filtration quality resulted from CR operation, but for different filter runs resulting from the same head loss of flow just before a backwash, the VDR control system produced lower turbidity filtrate.     

基于灰色关联分析的卡尔曼滤波在桥梁变形监测中的应用

在某长江特大桥桥面挠度变形监测过程中,考虑引起桥梁挠度变化的相关因素,采用灰色关联分析确定其中较重要的影响因子后,在传统卡尔曼滤波模型基础上建立改化后的状态方程和观测方程,从而完成相关因素的预测预报工作。实际应用结果表明,基于灰色关联分析的卡尔曼滤波对桥梁挠度变化的预测结果比传统滤波模型更加接近最终实测值,具有更高的准确性与可信度。     

一种新的基于模糊分析观测信息的局地化方法

地球表层系统是一个极其复杂的巨系统,为了更精确地表达地球表层系统各种过程的动态演进,解决数据同化系统观测误差的估计与处理已经成为地球科学领域备受关注的问题之一。在地球科学系统数值模拟中,一般采用集合数据同化来探讨地学变量预报时的各种误差。集合类卡尔曼滤波通常会由于集合数过小而带来欠采样、协方差低估、滤波发散和远距离虚假相关等问题。针对背景误差协方差被低估问题,局地分析方法（Local Analysis, LA）在一定程度上能起到抑制作用,但无法彻底解决背景误差协方差的虚假相关问题。因此,本文在集合卡尔曼滤波的算法框架下提出了一种与模糊逻辑控制算法相耦合的局地化分析方法（Fuzzy Analysis, FA）。在强非线性Lorenz-96模型中,对不同模型误差下的LA和FA方法进行了性能优劣方面的探讨,并比较分析了2种方法在集合数、观测数和观测位置、放大因子以及强迫参数变化时的同化性能。实验采用均方根误差作为算法评判依据,同时用功率谱密度（Power Spectral Density, PSD）更直接地对2种算法性能优劣作出了评价。结果表明：在完美模型下,FA相对于LA降低了17.5%的均方根误差（Root Mean Square Error, RMSE）;随着模型误差增大,RMSE减小的百分比和减小幅度都在降低;在严重模型误差下,FA降低了8.6%的RMSE。总体而言,新算法FA的有效性和鲁棒性都得到了验证,并且在EnKF同化基础下有效改进了传统的局地化分析方案,优化了观测误差处理,为今后的数据同化研究提供了一个较为全面的观测误差研究平台。     

天然地震识别与震相自动拾取技术进展

震相拾取是地震数据处理过程中最基本的步骤之一。在传统的人工拾取技术不能满足庞大的地震数据处理需求的情况下,震相自动拾取技术从产生到发展至今经历了漫长的过程。本文回顾并总结了震相自动拾取技术的发展状况,重点介绍了长短时窗法、赤池准则法、模板匹配技术、基于自相关盲搜索的FAST法、S波偏振分析法、人工智能方法等,以及近年发展起来的多频率震相识别、全波形叠加、二次方自回归模型等方法,同时分析了每种方法的优势和局限性。     

中国电离层TEC同化现报系统

数据同化是在基于物理机制的背景模型上,融合时空不规则分布的观测数据的一种现报方法.同化能够有效弥补数据的时空局限和模型的精度偏差,使二者相互匹配从而获得更加合理可信的模拟效果.本研究利用电离层数据同化方法,针对中国及周边区域（15°N-55°N,70°E-140°E）构建了电离层总电子含量（TEC）同化现报系统.系统使用国际参考电离层（IRI）作为背景场,利用中国科学院空间环境监测网和国际GNSS服务组织（IGS）的部分地基GNSS台站数据作为观测值,并采用三维变分与Gauss-Markov卡尔曼滤波相结合的算法进行背景场和观测值的数据同化,生成覆盖中国及周边区域的电离层TEC和GPS单频接收机延迟误差的格点化准实时现报地图,并在中国科学院空间环境预报中心（http：//sepc.ac.cn/TEC_chn.php）网上发布,每15 min进行更新.该系统是我国基于同化算法的电离层现报系统之一,已用于中国及周边区域的电离层环境实时监测,可为卫星导航、雷达成像、短波通信等科学研究和工程应用提供相对及时、准确、有效的电离层TEC和误差修正信息.     

组合GPS/测距测向仪车载导航和卡尔曼滤波

讨论了ＧＰＳ单点伪距定位的特点,然后利用距测向仪来弥补ＧＰＳ导航的不足以及提高导航精度,并给出了确定初值的一种迭代算法,最后提出了八状态的卡尔曼滤波器。     

Singular value decomposition as a denoising tool for airborne time domain electromagnetic data

Airborne time domain electromagnetic (TDEM) surveys are increasingly carried out in anthropized areas as part of environmental studies. In such areas, noise arises mainly from either natural sources, such as spherics, or cultural sources, such as couplings with man-made installations. This results in various distortions on the measured decays, which make the EM noise spectrum complex and may lead to erroneous inversion and subsequent misinterpretations. Thresholding and stacking standard techniques, commonly used to filter TDEM data, are less efficient in such environment, requiring a time-consuming and subjective manual editing. The aim of this study was therefore to propose an alternative fast and efficient user-assisted filtering approach. This was achieved using the singular value decomposition (SVD). The SVD method uses the principal component analysis to extract into components the dominant shapes from a series of raw input curves. EM decays can then be reconstructed with particular components only. To do so, we had to adapt and implement the SVD, firstly, to separate clearly and so identify easily the components containing the geological signal, and then to denoise properly TDEM data.The reconstructed decays were used to detect noisy gates on their corresponding measured decays. This denoising step allowed rejecting efficiently mainly spikes and oscillations. Then, we focused on couplings with man-made installations, which may result in artifacts on the inverted models. An analysis of the map of weights of the selected “noisy components” highlighted high correlations with man-made installations localized by the flight video. We had therefore a tool to cull most likely decays biased by capacitive coupling noises. Finally, rejection of decays affected by galvanic coupling noises was also possible locating them through the analysis of specific SVD components. This SVD procedure was applied on airborne TDEM data surveyed by SkyTEM Aps. over an anthropized area, on behalf of the French geological survey (BRGM), near Courtenay in Région Centre, France. The established denoising procedure provides accurate denoising tools and makes, at least, the manual cleaning less time consuming and less subjective.