Selection between the generalized Pareto and kappa distributions in peaks-over-threshold hydrological frequency modelling

Hydrologists use the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution in peaks-over-threshold (POT) modelling of extremes. A model with similar uses is the two-parameter kappa (KAP) distribution. KAP has had fewer hydrological applications than GP, but some studies have shown it to merit wider use. The problem of choosing between GP and KAP arises quite often in frequency analyses. This study, by comparing some discrimination methods between these two models, aims to show which method(s) is (are) recommended. Three specific methods are considered: one uses the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit (GoF) statistic, another uses the ratio of maximized likelihood (closely related to the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion), and the third employs a normality transformation followed by application of the Shapiro-Wilk statistic. We show this last method to be the most recommendable, due to its advantages with sizes typically encountered in hydrology. We apply the simulation results to some flood POT datasets.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Volpi     

滇西龙陵地区地壳电性结构及其对大瑞铁路地质选线影响研究

高黎贡山地处印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞缝合带附近的横断山脉南段,是大理一瑞丽铁路(大瑞线)的必经之地,地形起伏大、构造复杂、活动性强,高黎贡山隧道作为全线控制性工程之一,其地质选线的最大困难就是对隧道深部构造环境的了解,特别是缺少对与地热、地震等联系紧密的深部地质构造的认识.为此,本文以大地电磁方法为手段,以高黎贡山隧道为主要研究对象,通过对滇西龙陵地区高黎贡山隧道越岭段两条大地电磁剖面数据的处理解释对研究区的地壳电性结构特征进行了勘探研究.结合区域地质构造特征与主要工程地质问题之间关系的分析,根据隧道主要断层地质条件设计了三维垂直断层模型,利用三维有限元开展正演模拟研究发现,测点点距、位置与横向分辨率密切相关,点距越密,分辨率越高,测点位于断层在地表投影位置能有效提高分辨率.采用大地电磁阻抗张量分解技术对两条剖面上各测点的二维偏离度和电性走向进行了计算和分析,对剖面视电阻率和阻抗相位数据进行了二维NLCG联合反演研究,揭示了沿剖面的腾冲地块、龙陵一瑞丽断裂带及保山地块10 km深度的电性结构特征及相互关系.结果表明:剖面CD电性结构呈现区域构造的三分性,腾冲地块电性结构成层性较好,保山地块成层性较差,两者均以中高阻电性特征为主,中间夹龙陵一瑞丽断裂带,电性结构反映从3 km深度以下存在几乎近于直立延伸的低阻带,推测为班公湖一怒江缝合带滇西段丁青一怒江缝合带的反映;剖面AB共划分了6条与工程密切相关的深部隐伏断裂,结合地震地质、地表地质及龙陵地震深部背景研究,推测F7-3断裂为1975龙陵7.3级地震断裂;从地表黄草坝断裂开始向下延伸,有一条发育最大深度约为4 km的低阻通道,推测为地热断裂深循环通道,其与黄草坝断裂共同控制研究区地下热水的补给、径流和排泄条件,在高黎贡山隧道线位位置形成了一个相对低温通道,为隧道方案成立的关键工程地质条件.勘探结果表明:滇西龙陵地区地壳电性结构有效的反映了高黎贡山隧道深部隐伏断裂和地热断裂深循环通道等深部构造特征,为大瑞线隧道工程地质选线提供了深部地质背景依据.     

A multidirectional conditional spectrum

This paper presents a procedure to generate multidirectional conditional spectra (MDCS) that allow for the characterisation of seismic demands at different angles of incidence. Being conditional on a particular period and its direction of maximum response, it is considered to be a natural evolution of the conditional spectrum to account for the effects of directionality, that is, the variation of seismic demands as a function of the angle of incidence of ground motions, which can have a significant effect on the performance of different kinds of structures. The three main components needed for the generation of MDCS are explained in detail. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted using different sampling methods to assess the effects of incorporating the correlation between demands at different orientations for the same oscillator period, and a novel correlation model is proposed for this purpose. The statistical characteristics of MDCS, their relation with the conditional spectrum, the advantages of the MDCS over previous definitions of orientation‐specific spectra, and prospective future developments are discussed.     

Further results for astrophysics from the cosmology within the framework of the Projective Unified Field Theory

Recently the 5‐dimensional Projective Unified Field Theory (PUFT) of the author (Schmutzer 1995a, Schmutzer 1995b) has been applied to a closed homogeneous isotropic cosmological model with the result of a cosmology without big bang (Schmutzer 1999a, Schmutzer 1999b). Continuing this approach, in this paper following subjects are treated: recalculation of numerical values of cosmological quantities, exact solution of the field equations to a point‐like body, motion of a test body in such a field, definition of the empirical effective gravitational factor (“constant”), Einstein effects compared to the empirical situation, adiabatic approximation of the motion of an orbiting testbody under the influence of the expanding cosmos (transition of the ellipses to circles, decrease of the radius of the orbiting bodies, decrease of the excentricity, increase of the frequency of orbiting objects etc.), heat production in a moving body induced by the cosmological expansion with application to various cosmic objects.     

国外军事地质学热点问题

近年来以美国为代表的西方军事强国在军事地质学领域已取得了很大进展,尤其在应对未来战争方面作了许多准备。通过系统搜集国际军事地球科学会议(ICMG)和美国地质学会(GSA)有关军事地质学的最新专题研讨会论文与其他公开出版资料,梳理了当前国外军事地质学研究的热点问题并阐述了其新进展,其中作战领域包括地形情报研究、军事基地选址、潜在特殊战场环境调查、地下重要设施评价、非常规作战环境调查;非作战领域则包括抢险救灾、生态环境保护和环境安全评价等。最后分析了当前军事地质学研究存在的问题,并指出了其未来发展趋势。     

多元素衬值累加地球化学方法在找矿中的应用——以青海省夏日哈-什多龙远景区为例

青海省夏日哈-什多龙成矿远景区位于青藏高原东昆仑东段,西起都兰县夏日哈镇,东至兴海县什多龙一带,跨祁漫塔格北坡-夏日哈岩浆弧和北昆仑岩浆弧,是青海省重要的成矿区。为了在该区寻找新的成矿有利地段,本文在对该区区域地质背景、矿产特征及区内典型矿床地质特征系统研究的基础上,利用多元素衬值累加地球化学找矿方法,在区域上优选出一批找矿靶区。多元素衬值累加地球化学找矿方法首先收集远景区1∶5万水系沉积物测量成果,经过数据处理,绘制远景区衬值累计地球化学图,进而建立典型矿床找矿模式,最终通过对比分析,选出新的找矿靶区。对圈定的找矿靶区进行野外踏勘检查,均发现不同程度的矿化线索,为今后在该区进一步找矿起到了很好的指导作用。通过本次工作,发现了该方法在靶区圈定方面的优势:(1)可快速圈定异常,提高工作效率;(2)编制的地球化学图浓集中心更显著;(3)圈定的找矿靶区找矿成果显著,尤其针对陆相火山岩型多金属矿、斑岩型铜钼矿、矽卡岩型多金属矿找矿成果突出;(4)能直观反映背景变化趋势,有助于评价异常。     

基于GIS的泸水县易地扶贫搬迁安置地选择

易地扶贫搬迁是对生活在恶劣环境中的贫困人口采取的扶贫举措。泸水县尚有大量人口需要易地搬迁解决贫困问题,泸水县特殊的峡谷地理环境,使安置地的选择成为棘手的问题。将GIS技术应用于扶贫易地搬迁地选择中,可以方便地找出适宜的搬迁居住地,为当地政府易地安置提供决策参考依据。安置区的选择,主要考虑以下因子：交通便利、土地资源丰富、水源丰富、坡度较为平缓、海拔较低,避开地质灾害隐患点和自然保护区等。通过GIS技术,将上述因子图层叠加后找到适合的安置地。结果表明：泸水县难以找到成片的面积较大的安置区,安置区呈零星状分布在各个乡镇。     

似大地水准面拟合中已知点的选择

似大地水准面的拟合是测绘中的一个热点问题,其中已知点的选择对似大地水准面拟合结果有显著影响。文中探讨似大地水准面拟合中已知点的选择问题,分析比较传统手工方法、全组合法与逐点剔除法选择已知点,并用实际算例验证逐点剔除法的优点,所得结论对实际工程应用具有一定的参考价值。     

野外车辆定位监控系统设计研究

面向野外作业的需求,设计了一种野外车辆定位监控系统,该定位与监控系统采用分布式体系结构,设置监控总中心、监控分中心、车载终端;采用树状结构构成车辆信息交互系统,通过车载无线通信模块自动上报位置信息,达到实时定位与监控的目的。     

将微粒群和支持向量机用于耕地驱动因子选择的研究

结合微粒群算法(PSO)具有执行速度快、受问题维数变化影响小的优点及支持向量机算法(SVM)结构风险最小化原理,构建了基于离散二进制微粒群(BPSO)与支持向量机的耕地驱动力因子选择方法,使用特征子集中确定的特征来训练支持向量回归机,用适应度函数来评价回归机的性能,指导BPSO的搜索。实验表明,该方法能有效地提取出耕地驱动因子的特征子集,从而降低了指标的维数,保留了关键信息,以获得知识的最小表达。