青藏高原东侧常规观测资料对WRF模式预报误差的贡献分析

利用WRFDA-FSO(Forecast Sensitivity to Observation)系统,统计分析2009年和2010年5—10月青藏高原东侧常规地面和高空观测对WRF模式预报误差的贡献。结果表明:地面观测资料各要素中,温度场对模式预报误差贡献最大,风场、气压和水汽场的贡献相对小;四川东部、广西大部和云南南部边缘地区的资料对改进预报产生正贡献较大。高空资料各要素中,温度场对模式预报误差贡献最大,其次是水汽场,风场贡献最小;高空站资料对改进预报产生正贡献较大的区域主要分布在云南大部、贵州西部边缘和广西西北部边缘地区。依据误差统计结果,剔除对改进预报产生负贡献较大的地面和高空站资料后,模式降水和温度预报效果有所改善。     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON MULTI-LEVEL STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC BALANCE CONSTRAINTS IN GRAPES-3DVAR

This paper further explores the estimating and expressing of dynamic balance constraints using statistical methods in GRAPES-3DVAR (Version GM). Unlike the single-level scheme which only considers the coupling between mass and wind at one level, the multi-level scheme considers the coupling between their vertical profiles and calculates the balanced mass field at each layer using the rotational wind at all model levels. A reformed ridge regression method is used in the new scheme to avoid the multicollinearity problem and reduce the noises caused by unbalanced mesoscale disturbances. The results of numerical experiments show that the new scheme can get more reasonable vertical mass field, reduce the magnitude of the adjustment by the initialization, and improve the potential temperature analysis performance. Furthermore, the results of forecast verification in January (winter) and July (summer) both confirm that the new scheme can significantly improve the temperature forecast accuracy and bring slight positive effects to the pressure and wind forecast.     

水平轴潮流能水轮机水动力数值模拟研究

针对水平轴潮流能水轮机,对其进行了力学分析并运用CFD方法对其水动力性能进行了仿真计算。比较了定常计算与非定常计算结果的区别,运用定常计算(MRF)方法得到了表现水轮机性能的功率、扭矩和推力特性曲线,分析了水轮机在不同尖速比时的表现。对水轮机模型进行了拖曳水池试验,并与仿真数据进行了比对分析,两者吻合度较好,并分析了试验过程中出现的在尖速比较大时功率系数衰减的现象,表明CFD方法对水轮机的工程实践有着指导意义。得到了尾流场的速度云图、流线分布图与衰减曲线,结果表明相对于水轮机的直径,受到其影响后的流场存在扩张现象。分析了水轮机后不同位置处的流场衰减情况,结果显示,随着水轮机后轴向距离的不同其速度恢复差别很大,对于今后潮流能水轮机的大规模布置方式研究提供了依据。     

Experiment Study of Dynamics Response for Wind Turbine System of Floating Foundation

The floating foundation is designed to support a 1.5 MW wind turbine in 30 m water depth. With consideration of the viscous damping of foundation and heave plates, the amplitude-frequency response characteristics of the foundation are studied. By taking into account the elastic effect of blades and tower, the classic quasi-steady blade-element/momentum (BEM) theory is used to calculate the aerodynamic elastic loads. A coupled dynamic model of the turbine-foundation- mooring lines is established to calculate the motion response of floating foundation under Kaimal wind spectrum and regular wave by using the FAST codes. The model experiment is carried out to test damping characteristics and natural motion behaviors of the wind turbine system. The dynamics response is tested by considering only waves and the joint action of wind and waves. It is shown that the wind turbine system can avoid resonances under the action of wind and waves. In addition, the heave motion of the floating foundation is induced by waves and the surge motion is induced by wind. The action of wind and waves is of significance for pitch.     

Evaluating the robustness of models developed from field spectral data in predicting African grass foliar nitrogen concentration using WorldView-2 image as an independent test dataset

In this paper, we evaluate the extent to which the resampled field spectra compare with the actual image spectra of the new generation multispectral WorldView-2 (WV-2) satellite. This was achieved by developing models from resampled field spectra data and testing them on an actual WV-2 image of the study area. We evaluated the performance of reflectance ratios (RI), normalized difference indices (NDI) and random forest (RF) regression model in predicting foliar nitrogen concentration in a grassland environment. The field measured spectra were used to calibrate the RF model using a randomly selected training (n = 70%) nitrogen data set. The model developed from the field spectra resampled to WV-2 wavebands was validated on an independent field spectral test dataset as well as on the actual WV-2 image of the same area (n = 30%, bootstrapped a 100 times). The results show that the model developed using RI could predict nitrogen with a mean R² of 0.74 and 0.65 on an independent field spectral test data set and on the actual WV-2 image, respectively. The root mean square error of prediction (RMSE %) was 0.17 and 0.22 for the field test data set and the WV-2 image, respectively. Results provide an insight on the magnitude of errors that are expected when up-scaling field spectral models to airborne or satellite image data. The prediction also indicates the unceasing relevance of field spectroscopy studies to better understand the spectral models critical for vegetation quality assessment.     

地图个性化认知适合度的眼动试验评估

地图个性化认知是地图设计与地图可用性研究中的重要问题。本文以二维电子地图为例,针对不同样式地图原型对特定用户的认知适合度问题进行研究。以交叉组合设计的4种地图原型为素材进行单因素组内眼动试验设计,采用Tobii X120眼动仪获取目标点周围兴趣区内的首次进入时间、首次注视时间和首次鼠标点击时间等眼动(行为)参数,通过描述统计、方差分析等多元数理统计分析进行量化计算,发现地图样式对首次进入时间、首次注视时间、首次鼠标点击时间均有显著影响,说明用户对不同样式地图的认知效果在认知敏感程度、注意程度、信息加工速度方面都存在一定差异。而后,本文进一步寻求认知心理学理论依据,并绘制眼动热点图、统计均值图、折线图、雷达图等可视化图形,将上述结论进行直观表示。本文的研究工作表明,不同地图的认知效果因人而异,地图设计必须考虑用户的个性化认知特点。     

The role of imported pulpwood for the influx of exotic plants to Norway

Pulpwood has been imported to Norway since the beginning of the 20th century. However, exotic plant species hitchhiking with pulpwood were not observed before c.1985. Prior to this the imported timber was debarked, and the chances that diaspores would have attached to a debarked log (compared to a log with bark) are very small. A greenhouse germination experiment based on 385 dm² of sifted bark from the holds of nine Estonian pulpwood ships yielded 3187 seeds of 201 species of vascular plants, few of which were typical of coniferous forests. Approximately 39% of the hitchhiking seeds did not germinate until after a period of cold treatment. Most of the species germinated in low densities, and those occurring in greater numbers are common and widespread in Norway. Six species were new to Norway: Agrostis clavata, Androsace filiformis, Bidens radiata, Carex montana, Melica picta, and Ranunculus cassubicus. During the last 20 years, pulpwood has been imported to Norway from many countries around the world, e.g. Russia, Scotland, Canada, and Zaire. While the present data do not indicate any immediate threat from aggressively invasive exotics, in order to avoid the introduction of non-native species and reduce the potential for biological invasion, timber should ideally be debarked prior to importation.     

Aerodynamic Parameters of Regular Arrays of Rectangular Blocks with Various Geometries

The aerodynamic effects of various configurations of an urban array were investigated in a wind-tunnel experiment. Three aerodynamic parameters characterising arrays—the drag coefficient (C _d ), roughness length (z _o) and displacement height (d)—are used for analysis. C _d is based on the direct measurement of the total surface shear using a floating element, and the other two parameters are estimated by logarithmic fitting of the measured wind profile and predetermined total drag force. The configurations of 63 arrays used for measurement were designed to estimate the effects of layout, wind direction and the height variability of the blocks on these parameters for various roughness packing densities. The results are summarised as follows: (1) The estimated C _d and z _o of the staggered arrays peak against the plan area index (λ _p ) and frontal area index (λ _f ), in contrast with values for the square arrays, which are less sensitive to λ _p and λ _f . In addition, the square arrays with a wind direction of 45° have a considerably larger C _d , and the wind direction increases z _o/H by up to a factor of 2. (2) The effect of the non-uniformity of roughness height on z _o is more remarkable when λ _f exceeds 20%, and the discrepancy in z _o is particularly remarkable and exceeds 200%. (3) The effect of the layout of tall blocks on C _d is stronger than that of short blocks. These results indicate that the effects of both wind direction and the non-uniformity of the heights of buildings on urban aerodynamic parameters vary greatly with λ _p and λ _f ; hence, these effects should be taken into account by considering the roughness packing density.     

Impact of Different Guidances on Sensitive Areas of Targeting Observations Based on the CNOP Method

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(CNOPs) obtained by a fast algorithm are applied to determining the sensitive area for the targeting observation of Typhoon Matsa in 2005 using an operational regional prediction model-the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System(GRAPES).Through a series of sensitivity experiments,several issues on targeting strategy design are discussed,including the effectivity of different guidances to determine the sensitive area(or targeting area) and the impa...     

河北开滦矿区晚古生代煤对CH_4/CO_2二元气体等温解吸特性

研究了河北开滦矿区不同变质程度的煤对不同配比CH4/CO2二元气体等温解吸特性,并用扩展Langmuir方程的推论计算了CH4/CO2二元气体各组分在吸附相中的浓度,分析了其变化特征。结果表明:在开滦矿区煤对CH4/CO2二元气体解吸过程中,中等变质程度煤(Ro=1.21%)对混合气体的吸附能力大于低变质程度煤(Ro=0.58%),且混合气体中CO2浓度越大,总吸附量越多。吸附相中CH4的相对浓度是逐渐降低的,CO2的相对浓度是逐渐升高的。开滦矿区中等变质程度煤相对于低变质程度煤,用CO2气体置换煤层中CH4,可以获得较高的单位压降CH4解吸率,注入CO2的量越多、相对浓度越高,其置换效果就越好,更适于往煤层注入CO2提高煤层气产量技术的实施。