Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Deep seismic reflection study over the Vindhyans of Rajasthan: Implications for geophysical setting of the basin

This paper presents results of high-resolution deep seismic reflection profiling of the Proterozoic Vindhyan basin of the Rajasthan area along the Chandli-Bundi-Kota-Kunjer profile. Seismic images have been used to estimate the thickness of Vindhyan strata as well as to understand the tectonic framework of the basin. The results are constrained by gravity, magnetic and magnetotelluric data. The study reveals gentle SE-dipping reflection bands representing the Vindhyan strata. The seismic sections depict gradual thickening of the Vindhyan succession towards southeast from Bundi. The velocities of the upper and lower Vindhyans are identified as 4.6-4.8 km/s and 5.1-5.3 km/s. The NW limit of the Vindhyan basin is demarcated by the Great Boundary Fault (GBF) that manifests as a 30 km wide NW dipping thrust fault extending to a depth of 30 km.     

Effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship

The power-law exponent (n) in the equation: D=cL ⁿ , with D = maximum displacement and L = fault length, would be affected by deviations of fault trace length. (1) Assuming n=1, numerical simulations on the effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship are done in this paper. The results show that: (a) uniform relative deviations, which means all faults within a dataset have the same relative deviation, do not affect the value of n; (b) deviations of the fault length due to unresolved fault tip decrease the values of n and the deviations of n increase with the increasing length deviations; (c) fault linkage and observed dimensions either increase or decrease the value of n depending on the distribution of deviations within a dataset; (d) mixed deviations of the fault lengths are either negative or positive and cause the values of n to either decrease or increase; (e) a dataset combined from two or more datasets with different values of c and orders of magnitude also cause the values of n to deviate. (2) Data including 19 datasets and spanning more than eight orders of fault length magnitudes (10⁻²–10⁵ m) collected from the published literature indicate that the values of n range from 0.55 to 1.5, the average value being 1.0813, and the peak value of n _d (double regression) is 1.0–1.1. Based on above results from the simulations and published data, we propose that the relationship between the maximum displacement and fault length in a single tectonic environment with uniform mechanical properties is linear, and the value of n deviated from 1 is mainly caused by the sampling and linkage effects.     

圆形标志中心子像素定位方法的研究与实现

采用回光反射材料制作圆形回光反射标志，经摄影后得到标志的“准二值影像”；对标志的椭圆影像进行亚像素边缘提取，经最小二乘椭圆拟合后得到标志中心的子像素级位置。试验表明，可以达到0．02像素的定位精度。     

基于预测的边缘检测方法

提出了一种基于预测的、有一定自适应性的边缘检测方法。介绍了其原理和算法实现过程。通过计算两个相邻像素的灰度值的均值、均方差和梯度来预测下一个像素的灰度值，比较预测值和真实值来判断下一个像素是否是边界点。通过与现有同类算法的比较，证明了该算法的优越性。     

多时相组合分类法在土地利用动态监测中的应用

介绍了土地利用遥感动态监测的基本概念，简述了遥感土地利用变化信息提取等遥感监测方法．重点探讨了多时相组合分类方法的相关技术。对广西2002年和2003年两个时相的MODIS数据．采用多时相直接分类法对土地利用变化状况进行了遥感动态监测。对不同方式波段组合的试验表明。经过差值、比值处理的波段组合具有较差的试验效果(总体精度只有30％～40％)，而经过PCA变换的波段组合则具有相对较好的试验效果(总体精度超过70％)。     

隧道锚杆锚固质量无损检测技术

采用声波检测仪,应用声频应力波在不同波阻抗面反射的能量和相位的变化原理,对隧道的锚杆锚固质量进行了无损检测试验研究,并对检测技术进行了探讨.结果表明,作为一种工程质量管理辅助手段,采用应力波对锚杆锚固质量进行无损检测,丰富了隧道围岩锚固质量检测方法,为隧道工程建设提供更好的质量保障.