浅埋地下结构和土层在动荷载作用下的反应分析

在日本阪神大地震中,地下结构遭到了严重破坏。正确分析地下结构的地震反应,提出合理的抗震设计和安全性评价方法十分必要。用FLAC v4．0对某地的一个地铁车站进行了动力分析,发现随着埋深变浅,土体的加速度时程曲线表现出以某一确定的频率振动,该振动频率与模型的基频相近;位移在正方向和负方向的振幅都随埋深的增加而变小：在地表处达到最大值。一些认识和结论对于正确的进行抗震设计有指导意义。     

塔里木盆地北部油气运移二维二相数值模拟分析

油气运移和聚集过程实际上是油（气）水饱和度知疏导层的变化过程，盆地中油（气）二相流动问题的研究就是对这一过程的定量描述，本项研究是在前人工作基础上，考察压实作用造成骨架变形来推导新的二维二相流动方程，它容描述异常压力演化与二相流动于一式，在模拟方法上采用有限分析的数值方法，这应用于新疆塔里木盆地北部地区，展示了该区异常压力、含水饱和度弥散状扩散效应以及流速场在地质历史时期动态模拟演化特征；指出了该     

Temporal vP/vS variation characteristics in different zones of China’s Capital Circle area before and after Wen’an earthquake

On July 4, 2006, an earthquake of MS5.1 took place in Wen’an, Hebei Province, just at the south center of China’s Capital Circle area digital seismograph network. It is the strongest event recorded ever since the network went into operation in 2002. We processed the vast amounts of phase data yielded by the 107 digital seismic stations between 2002~2007 using Wadati method. In order to improve the precision and stability of shear and compressional wave velocities (vP/vS) calculation, we impose a number of restrictions on the computation environment and condition, e.g., the earthquakes are densely concentrated, selected stations are limited in range, the number of stations in- volved in the computation is larger than 5 and linear fitting features high precision and small error. Under these restrictions, the study shows that vP/vS in and around Wen’an and Tangshan underwent a normal-low-normal proc- ess one year before Wen’an earthquake, vP/vS became obviously low and the low ratio lasted for about one year, meanwhile, little variation of vP/vS was seen in Xingtai, northwest of Beijing, southwest of Beijing, Beijing-Tianjin and Beijing; after the quake, the vP/vS returned normal in Wen’an and Tangshan. Error and stability analysis of the calculated result for vP/vS shows it is convincible that anomaly appeared in and around Wen’an and Tangshan be- fore Wen’an earthquake.     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Estimating overland flow erosion capacity using unit stream power

Soil erosion caused by water flow is a complex problem. Both empirical and physically based approaches were used for the estimation of surface erosion rates. Their applications are mainly limited to experimental areas or laboratory studies. The maximum sediment concentration overland flow can carry is not considered in most of the existing surface erosion models. The lack of erosion capacity limitation may cause over estimations of sediment concentration. A correlation analysis is used in this study to determine significant factors that impact surface erosion capacity. The result shows that the unit stream power is the most dominant factor for overland flow erosion which is consistent with experimental data. A bounded regression formula is used to reflect the limits that sediment concentration cannot be less than zero nor greater than a maximum value. The coefficients used in the model are calibrated using published laboratory data. The computed results agree with laboratory data very well. A one dimensional overland flow diffusive wave model is used in conjunction with the developed soil erosion equation to simulate field experimental results. This study concludes that the non-linear regression method using unit stream power as the dominant factor performs well for estimating overland flow erosion capacity.     

Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications

Tsunami is one of a few kinds of natural disasters that leave people some time for escape. This escape time, which is essentially the time for the giant wave to propagate from the epicentre to a coast, has to be estimated without delay upon the occurrence of the incident. With the advancement of water wave theories, much work has been done to model the propagation of tsunamis from deep oceans to shallow water. The authors argue that while much emphasis has been put on the expansion of the high-tech early warning system and the development of complicated tsunami models, a simple-to-use yet accurate predictive model is still wanting. This paper presents a handy linear wave model, which is capable of estimating the arrival time of a tsunami with very good accuracy, as has been verified by comparison with past incidents. With the availability of such a simple model, even local communities without access to a high-tech warning system can readily estimate the time left for emergency evacuation.     

A comparative study of four vulnerability mapping methods in a detritic aquifer under mediterranean climatic conditions

This paper presents the results of a comparative study relating to the application of four vulnerability mapping methods, GOD, AVI, DRASTIC and SINTACS, in a pilot detritic aquifer situated in NW Morocco, known as the Martil–Alila aquifer. The principal objective of this work is to determine the most suitable such methods for this aquifer type within a Mediterranean context, and to show the effect of the rainfall variations that are characteristic of the Mediterranean climate on the degree of vulnerability. The methods applied distinguish five classes of vulnerability, these being irregularly divided up in space, with the division varying according to the method in question. The vulnerability maps obtained by the different methods strongly suggest that the eastern half of the aquifer is more vulnerable to contamination than the western half, for all hydrological situations. The effect of climatic conditions on the degree of vulnerability is well represented by the DRASTIC, according to which the aquifer is moderately to strongly vulnerable during humid hydrological years and weakly to moderately vulnerable during dry ones. For the other methods, this climatic effect is limited to the area occupied by the two predominant classes (“High” and “Low” for GOD and “High” and “Moderate” for SINTACS) while it is null for AVI. In conclusion, DRASTIC appears the most suitable for mapping the vulnerability to contamination of Mediterranean coastal detritic aquifers such as the Martil–Alila aquifer.     

Zircon U-Pb dating of intermediate-acid intrusive rocks in the middle section of Ningzhen district and their metallogenic implicationsEI北大核心CSCD

The Ningzhen metallogenic district is an important part of the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Valley metallogenic belt. LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating of the three intermediate-acid intrusions, i.e., Anjishan, Xinqiao, and Shima, in the central part of the Ningzhen district, indicates that those intrusions were emplaced in the Late Early Cretaceous, with ages of 107.0±1.1 Ma-108.0±1.6 Ma, 108.0±1.3 Ma, and 102.5±1.1 Ma, respectively. Combined with the molybdenite Re-Os isotope age (106-108 Ma) of porphyry copper deposit in this regions, the Ningzhen district exists an intensively magmatic-metallogenic-thermal event at 102.5-108.0 Ma. The age of this event is similar with the age of the third period of large scale mineralization in South China, however obviously later than the magmatic activity of other ore field (124-148 Ma) in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Valley metallogenic belt. It is suggested that the tectonic-magmatic-thermal events in the Ningzhen area is formed under regional lithospheric extension environment, which is also consistent with the tectonic background of the third period of large scale mineralization in South China. The zircon U-Pb ages of the intrusions and the Re-Os ages of molybdenites from the porphyry deposits in the study area demonstrate that the Ningzhen district underwent intensive magmatism and hydrothermal mineralization during the period from 102.5 to 108.0 Ma, which is consistent with the third pulse of large scale mineralization in the South China. ©, 2015, Science Press. All right reserved.     

High parallelization efficiency in barotropic-mode computation of ocean models based on multi-grid boundary ghost area

In general, barotropic-mode computation requires the largest communication time in ocean models because of its iterative nature, when parallel computation is performed based on regional partitioning. In this study, reduction in the overhead time included in the communication in the parallel computation of the barotropic mode is considered to achieve a high parallelization efficiency of ocean models. We verify that the reduction in the communication frequency based on the multi-grid boundary ghost area reduces the total communication time. We find that this is because the sum of several kinds of overhead time for communication occupies a fairly large part of the total communication time. We discuss the trade-off between the decrease in communication time and the increase in computation time due to increased boundary area in such cases, leading to a determination of a suitable width of the multi-grid boundary that minimizes the total required time. We also discuss the efficiencies of the one- and two-dimensional partitioning of the model domain, when a multi-grid boundary is used. In general, two-dimensional partitioning is more efficient than one-dimensional for large partitioning numbers.     

中国西南及邻区上地幔P波三维速度结构/

利用ISC报告以及中国和NEIC基本测震台网报告中的80974条P波初至到时资料（地震数为7053，台站数为165，且地震和台站都分布在研究区内），对中国西南及邻区（北纬10～36、东经70～110）的深至400km的上地幔三维速度结构进行了研究，分辨率达22．初步结果表明:①研究区速度的横向不均匀性，虽随深度增加而减弱，但至400km深度时仍很明显；②在北纬16和24的纵剖面上，可以看到与印度板块向东和欧亚板块相碰撞挤压相对应的速度结构，以及印度板块与欧亚板块速度结构的差异．在东经90的纵剖面上，与印度板块向北俯冲到欧亚板块（青藏高原）之下相对应的速度结构也比较明显；③在90ｋｍ深度的横剖面上，由缅甸的密支那至越南的洞海的低速条带，可能与红河断裂带有关；④ 提出并使用了能够更为准确直观地描述分辨率好坏的图示方法．