闪电产生氮氧化物(LNOX)及其输送过程的模式计算

利用三维强风暴动力电耦合模式,模拟分析了一次雷暴过程中放电活动特征及平流和湍流对LNOX的输送特征。结果表明,在中部负电荷区域的上边缘,对应上升气流区外围、水平流场中心部位的区域,因为放电传输距离较长,所以强放电区主要落在这些部位,且向上传输。在负电荷中心区也有少数放电点,但传输距离较短。闪电产生的氮氧化物逸出闪道后,被云中平流和湍流输送,最后在弱流场区域内形成LNOX浓度中心,峰值达9×10-9。LNOX的输送主要以平流为主,但在云底层及雷暴消散阶段,湍流输送也起重要作用。在雷暴云消亡期,LNOX的峰值为2.7×10-9,比晴天值大1个量级。     

高层大气密度的午夜极大值特征分析与建模

利用CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload)、GRACE-A (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-A)、SWARM-C (The Earth''s Magnetic Field and Environment Explorers-C)等3颗极轨卫星的资料, 研究360—480km高层大气密度在低纬度区域的午夜极大值(Midnight Density Maximum, MDM)现象. MDM一般出现在23:00- 02:00 LT (Local Time)之间,峰值位置在低纬度15°以内,谷值位置在中纬度35°-45°附近,整体略偏向南半球,振幅约为平均密度的26%.随着高度增大以及太阳辐射水平的增强,MDM振幅呈减小趋势;冬至和夏至日附近的季节效应会减弱MDM振幅,在春秋分日的振幅最大.用3个主流大气模型DTM2000 (Drag Temperature Model 2000), NRLMSISE00 (US Naval Research Laboratory, Mass Spectrom-eter and Incoherent Scatter radar)和JB2008 (Jacchia- Bowman 2008 model)对MDM进行模拟,JB2008没有刻画出MDM现象;另两个模型低估了MDM效应,在360km和480km两个高度DTM2000模型的振幅仅为观测的46%和53%, NRLMSISE00模型仅为观测的33%和26%;模型没有准确刻画出MDM与高度、辐射水平和季节的关系.联合3颗卫星的资料,研究了-种基于地理纬度的6阶勒让德多项式,同时融合地方时和高度因素的经验函数,在振幅和相位上可以较好地刻画MDM特征,相关系数达到0.923,可为大气密度模型的修正提供借鉴,服务于低轨道航天器高精度轨道预报.     

New formulae for capacity energy-based assessment of liquefaction triggering

Abstract

Liquefaction of loose saturated soil deposits is a hazardous type of ground failure occurring under earthquake excitations. Therefore, an accurate estimation of liquefaction potential is extremely important in geotechnical engineering. In the current study, a new model is proposed which estimates the level of strain energy needed for liquefaction initiation. A compiled database containing cyclic tests gathered from previously published works was used to develop new models to predict liquefaction potential. M5′ algorithm was used to find the best correlation between parameters. It was shown that not only the derived formulas are acceptably accurate but also they feature a very simple structure in comparison with available formulas in the literature. The proposed equations are accurate, physically sound and uncomplicated. Furthermore, safety factors were given for different levels of risk, which can be useful for engineering practice. In addition, the influence of different predictors on the liquefaction potential was evaluated and also the significance of input variables was assessed via sensitivity analysis. Finally, a new model was introduced for preliminary estimation of liquefaction potential.     

Lidar-aided analysis of boreal forest backscatter at Ku band

This paper analyzes the backscatter of the microwave signal in a boreal forest environment based on a Ku -band airborne Frequency-Modulated Continuous Waveform (FMCW) profiling radar—Tomoradar. We selected a half-managed boreal forest in the southern part of Finland for a field test. By decomposing the waveform collected by the Tomoradar, the vertical canopy structure was achieved. Based on the amplitude of the waveform, the Backscattered Energy Ratio of Canopy-to-Total (BERCT) was calculated. Meanwhile, the canopy fraction was derived from the corresponding point cloud recorded by a Velodyne VLP-16 LiDAR mounted on the same platform. Lidar-derived canopy fraction was obtained by counting the number of the first/ the strongest returns versus the total amount of returns. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of radar-derived BERCT on lidar-derived canopy fraction and canopy height are investigated. A fitted model is derived to describe the Ku-band microwave backscatter in the boreal forest to numerically analyze the proportion contributed by four factors: lidar-derived canopy fraction, radar-derived canopy height, the radar-derived distance between trees and radar sensor and other factors, from co-polarization Tomoradar measurements. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of the proposed model was 0.0958, and the coefficient of determination R2 was 0.912. The fitted model reveals that the correlation coefficient between radar-derived BERCT and lidar-derived canopy fraction is 0.84, which illustrates that lidar surface reflection explains the majority of the profiling /waveform radar response. Thus, vertical canopy structure derived from lidar can be used for the benefit of radar analysis.     

遥感影像线状地物智能化提取算法研究

对遥感影像线状地物的提取进行了深入研究分析,分别采用Snakes模型、二值形态学和面向对象处理等3种算法智能化提取线状地物。通过实验验证,3种智能算法都是行之有效的,且Snakes模型在各种线状地物提取上表现稳定,而二值形态学和面向对象算法在部分线状地物提取上表现较为突出,整体稳定性却不如Snakes模型。     

一种利用浮标站资料改进海浪模式有效波高预报的方法

基于浮标站海浪历史数据,利用回归分析方法建立了海浪数值模式有效波高预报产品的一元二次回归方程订正统计模型。通过2017年7月1日-2018年10月10日期间业务试运行结果发现:订正方程能有效改善有效波高数值预报产品的预报精度,且预报时效越短订正效果越显著。其中,第6~11 h预报时效内的订正前后平均绝对误差值减小0.17~0. 241 m,第6~18 h预报时效内订正前后均方根误差减小幅度为0.103~0. 28 m。这说明应用订正统计模型对海浪模式输出产品进行订正,也是改进海浪模式预报准确率的一种有效途径。     

A simulation study of the role of raindrop erosion in the formation of desert pavements

A simple model of raindrop erosion—the combined effects of the detachment of sediment by raindrops and its transport by splash or by overland flow—is developed to examine the role of this process in the formation of desert pavements. Application of the model to soils in areas of existing pavement initially simulates the formation of pavements, but the changing sediment size distributions lead to the subsequent destruction of these modelled surfaces. An improved model that accounts for the feedback effects of the changing size distributions on infiltration and microtopography is then developed. Incorporating these effects allows simulated pavements to be maintained over longer periods. The model yields desert pavements whose particle size compositions differ in response to differences in initial soil characteristics, slope and rainfall intensity. This model is tested against empirical data from a site where there is intershrub pavement and associated mounds of fines beneath desert shrubs. The results successfully predict the accumulation of fines under shrubs but underestimate the development of the pavement between shrubs. These findings suggest that the raindrop erosion mechanism on its own cannot account for the development of the pavement and that some other mechanism leading to the surface concentration of coarse particles must also be operating.     

不同边界层参数化方案在中国西南地区东部高分辨率气候模拟中的敏感性研究

为了进一步评估和提高区域模式对西南地区东部高分辨率气候的模拟能力,利用 WRF模式,采用 多种边界层参数化方案（下称“不同方案”）对西南地区东部 1998—2019年夏季降水和气温进行双重嵌套模拟 （外层为D01,内层为D02）。对比不同方案模拟结果表明：多年平均降水量在D01中基本为湿偏差;D02中在四 川盆地和重庆低海拔地区为干偏差,湿偏差主要位于贵州和重庆的城口、石柱和武隆一带的地形复杂区;总体 上D01中ACM2方案误差最小,D02中MYJ方案误差最小。对多年平均气温的模拟在D01中除了四川盆地一 带为暖偏差外其余大部地区基本为冷偏差,D02 中大部地区为暖偏差;总体上 D01 和 D02 中 MYJ方案误差最 小,YSU方案最大。对于降水量和平均气温年际变化的模拟技巧在D01和D02中相对较高的地区均集中在重 庆中西部和湖北大部地区;降水量总体为 YSU 方案最高,MYJ 方案最低;平均气温总体为 MYJ 方案最高, ACM2方案最低。因此,提升模式分辨率至对流尺度后对不同气象要素模拟技巧最优的方案存在差异,需根据 业务情况选择适合本地的参数化方案。     

Depositional environments in the Telychian Stage (Silurian) of the central Oslo region,Norway

The Telychian succession in the central Oslo region was previously interpreted as deposited in a relatively deep, calm environment showing a continuous transgressive development. A new analysis of fossil assemblages shows that sediments in the central districts were deposited at varying water depths in an environment marked by intense infaunal activity in soft substrates. Two small-scale fluctuations in sea level are attributed to eustasy. The maximum deepening events occurred during the Monograptus turriculatus and Monoclimacis crenulata graptolite zones. Previous depositional models include development of a trough to the north of the Oslo region in early Telychian time, which formed due to isostatic loading caused by an advancing thrust front of the Caledonian Orogeny. Bathymetric analysis shows a deepening in the Ringerike district in the latest Aeronian, which here is interpreted as a distal effect of the loading to the north. The local deepening led to reversal of the epicontinental slope between the northern and western districts and the central districts and the development of an east–west elongate positive area further south. The thrust front acted as a source of siliciclastic material; and when the front halted in mid-Telychian time the trough was filled in gradually by a prograding coast or delta. The diachronous Vik Formation is viewed as a distal development of this progradation. When the east–west oriented positive area subsided the Vik Formation was deposited in Skien to the south.     

利用光变曲线估计猎鹰九号火箭末级的旋转状态研究

光度观测是地基观测空间目标的主要手段之一,利用光度信息能够估计空间目标的相关特征信息.为了更好地了解空间目标的旋转状态,选取具有代表性的猎鹰九号火箭末级作为研究对象,由其光变信息研究旋转状态.首先利用云南天文台1.2 m光学望远镜获取猎鹰九号火箭末级的光度数据,再对目标星等进行斜距归一化,得到目标光变信息并分析目标星等...