Modeling unusual eruptive behavior of Mt. Etna,Italy, by means of event bush

One of the best-studied volcanoes of the world, Mt. Etna in Sicily, repeatedly exhibits eruptive scenarios that depart from the behavior commonly considered typical for this volcano. Episodes of intense explosive activity, pyroclastic flows, dome growth and cone collapse pose a variety of previously underestimated threats to human lives in the summit area of the volcano. However, retrospective analysis of these events shows that they were likely caused by the same very sets of premises and starting conditions as “normal” eruptions, yet combined in an unexpected, probably unique, way. To cope with such unexpected consequences, we involve an approach of artificial intelligence developed specially for needs of the geosciences, the event bush. Scenarios inferred from the event bush fit the observed ones and allow to foresee other low-probability events that may occur at the volcano. Application of the event bush provides a more impartial vision of volcanic phenomena and may serve as an intermediary between expert knowledge and numerical assessment, e.g., by means of Bayesian Belief Networks.     

长白山天池火山西南麓水压致裂法地应力测量及其实测数据在断裂稳定性分析中的应用

长白山天池火山是一座新生代多成因复合火山, 其活动性一直受到地学界的高度重视.而地应力测量数据对于了解火山的活动情况等具有重要意义, 但目前长白山天池火山地区实测地应力资料较少.为了更准确地了解长白山天池火山地区现今地应力状态及断裂稳定性, 在长白山天池火山西南麓MJZ测点0~300 m孔深开展了水压致裂法地应力测量.利用此次实测地应力数据, 本文首先分析了该地区地壳浅表层应力状态, 结果表明: ①测区以水平构造应力为主导, 应力值与其他地区相比, 相对较低; ②S_H(最大水平主应力)、S_h(最小水平主应力)和S_v(垂向主应力)均随深度增加而基本呈线性增大趋势; 在60~180 m深度, 三者展现为逆断层应力状态, 即S_H＞S_h＞S_v; 在180~300 m, 则表现为S_H＞S_v＞S_h, 该应力关系有利于走滑断层活动; ③钻孔上部S_H方向为N38°E, 与东北地区构造应力场方向基本一致.钻孔下部由于受区内NW向断裂和其他因素影响, 存在与区域主应力方向有偏差的局部应力场.其次, 基于实测应力数据, 应用库仑摩擦滑动准则, 并取摩擦系数为0.6和1.0, 初步评价了区域断裂的稳定性.结果显示, 研究区现今应力状态尚未达到断裂失稳滑动水平, 推测测区断裂目前相对稳定.结合其较低的应力积累水平, 一定程度上反映出长白山天池火山区目前没有明显活动, 地壳总体是稳定的.本文的研究结果可为长白山天池火山的活动性、地震地质等研究提供地应力方面的基础数据, 同时也为测区地质环境安全评价提供参考依据.

     

Pyroclastic phases of a rhyolitic dome-building eruption: Puketarata tuff ring,Taupo Volcanic Zone,New Zealand

The 14 ka Puketarata eruption of Maroa caldera in Taupo Volcanic Zone was a dome-related event in which the bulk of the 0.25 km³ of eruption products were emplaced as phreatomagmatic fall and surge deposits. A rhyolitic dike encountered shallow groundwater during emplacement along a NE-trending normal fault, leading to shallow-seated explosions characterised by low to moderate water/magma ratios. The eruption products consist of two lava domes, a proximal tuff ring, three phreatic collapse craters, and a widespread fall deposit. The pyroclastic deposits contain dominantly dense juvenile clasts and few foreign lithics, and relate to very shallow-level disruption of the growing dome and its feeder dike with relatively little involvement of country rock. The distal fall deposit, representing 88% of the eruption products is, despite its uniform appearance and apparently subplinian dispersal, a composite feature equivalent to numerous discrete proximal phreatomagmatic lapilli fall layers, each deposited from a short-lived eruption column. The Puketarata products are subdivided into four units related to successive phases of:(A) shallow lava intrusion and initial dome growth; (B) rapid growth and destruction of dome lobes; (C) slower, sustained dome growth and restriction of explosive disruption to the dome margins; and (D) post-dome withdrawal of magma and crater-collapse. Phase D was phreatic, phases A and C had moderate water: magma ratios, and phase B a low water: magma ratio. Dome extrusion was most rapid during phase B, but so was destruction, and hence dome growth was largely accomplished during phase C. The Puketarata eruption illustrates how vent geometry and the presence of groundwater may control the style of silicic volcanism. Early activity was dominated by these external influences and sustained dome growth only followed after effective exclusion of external water from newly emplaced magma.     

Chemical characteristics of the crater lakes of Popocatetetl, El Chichon, and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes, Mexico

Three crater lakes from Mexican volcanoes were sampled and analyzed at various dates to determine their chemical characteristics. Strong differences were observed in the chemistry among the three lakes: Nevado de Toluca, considered as dormant, El Chichón at a post-eruptive stage, and Popocatépetl at a pre-eruptive stage. Not surprisingly, no influence of volcanic activity was found at the Nevado de Toluca volcano, while the other volcanoes showed a correlation between the changing level of activity and the evolution of chemical trends. Low pHs (<3.0) were measured in the water from the active volcanoes, while a pH of 5.6 was measured at the Nevado de Toluca Sun lake. Changes with time were observed at Popocatépetl and El Chichón. Concentrations of volcanic-gas derived species like Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻ and F⁻ decreased irregularly at El Chichón from 1983 until 1997. Major cations concentrations also diminished at El Chichón. A 100% increase in the SO₄²⁻ content was measured at Popocatépetl between 1985 and 1994. An increase in the Mg/Cl ratio between 1992 (Mg/Cl=0.085) and 1994 (Mg/Cl=0.177) was observed at Popocatépetl, before the disappearance of the crater lake in 1994. It is concluded that chemical analysis of crater lakes may provide a useful additional tool for active-volcano monitoring.     

Sensitivity test of the geodetic network in Las Cañadas Caldera, Tenerife, for volcano monitoring

A 17-benchmark geodetic network in the volcanic area of the Teide Caldera, Canary Islands has been utilised several times since 1982 to detect crustal movements associated with volcanic activity within the network, as well as a procedure for solving configuration problems. The network is located on the mid-western side of the Caldera, where there are two different morphological zones that both have benchmarks. The authors performed a sensitivity test of this geodetic network for volcano monitoring purposes. To do so, we use a deformation model to calculate surface displacement caused by a dike intrusion in a homogenous half space. The depth and location of dike are changed to study the variation of the effects produced (displacements). The size and location of the intruded dike are found to play a major role in determining both the displacement pattern and magnitude. When the dike is close to the surface, there is an inversion of the surface displacement pattern and very large surface displacement at certain benchmarks. Such phenomena can serve as precursors of such dike eruptions. Our study show a clear need to extend the existing geodetic network to cover the full island for volcano monitoring purposes.     

Seismic signals in geothermal areas of active volcanism: a case study from ‘La Fossa’, Vulcano (Italy)

Since the last eruption (1888–1890) volcanism at Vulcano, Aeolian Archipelago, southern Tyrrhenian Sea, has taken the form of persistent fumarolic activity. The gas-vapour phases of the geothermal systems are mainly discharged within two restricted areas about 1 km apart from each other, in the northern part of the island. These areas are La Fossa crater, and the beach fumaroles of the Baia di Levante. Fluids released at the two main fumarolic fields display quite different chemical and temperature characteristics, implying different origins. The local seismicity essentially takes the form of discrete shocks of shallow origin (depth1 km) at La Fossa, usually with energy < 10¹³ ergs. They are thought to be related to the uprise of pressurized hot gases and vapours discharged at the crater fumaroles. The present investigation points to the existence of two principal categories of seismic events (called M-shocks and N-shocks). These are short events (normally < 10 s). M-type shocks are thought to be due to resonance vibrations within the interior of the volcano, probably driven by the excitation of shock-waves within cavities deeply affected by deposition and alteration of self-sealant hydrothermal minerals. N-type events display features that resemble those of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, but have no recognizable S-phases. Here they are tentatively attributed to microfracturing of rocks which have been extensively hydrothermally altered. Results of the present study permit a preliminary conceptual model of the local shallow seismic processes in the framework of geochemical modelling of fumarolic activity and geological inferences from geothermal drilling.     

东秦岭(河南段)二郎坪群铜多金属成矿环境及成矿效应

二郎坪群位于北秦岭造山带中,在二郎坪群这套火山—沉积岩系中,含有在河南省占有重要地位的铜多金属矿。文章通过对二郎坪群的沉积建造特征、变基性火山岩的形成环境和岩浆来源特征的研究,认为二郎坪群形成于弧后盆地环境,其盆地规模和岩浆来源在盆地东西方向上存在差异,而铜多金属矿床成矿作用与二郎坪群的形成环境和变基性火山岩岩浆来源有着紧密的内在联系。二郎坪群弧后盆地在海底喷流作用下形成了不同成矿元素组合的铜-锌型和铅-锌型两种矿床类型。     

老黑山火山碎屑降落堆积物研究

由中心式喷发形成的老黑山火山碎屑降落堆积物，主要是玄武质火山渣、火山弹、火山饼和少量岩屑。在火山爆发自身能量和北北西风的影响下，形成高耸的火山渣锥和向南南东展布的低缓的火山碎屑席地貌景观。区域上系统测量了火山碎屑席中火山碎屑的厚度、最大平均粒径、分选系数和中值粒径，均呈现规律性变化；剖面层序则反映老黑山火山经过两个大喷发阶段，多次脉动式喷发。经估算，老黑山火山碎屑席中火山碎屑量比火山渣锥中要少得多，老黑山火山碎屑属“建造火山锥”火山碎屑沉积。据投点，老黑山火山喷发属斯通博里型。老黑山、火烧山火山仍有再次爆发的可能。未来火山喷发的潜在危险主要来自火山喷发空落堆积物。老黑山、火烧山火山的南东、东和南，包括五大连池市在内有必要对未来火山爆发加以防范。     

Experimental Petrology of the 1991-1995 Unzen Dacite, Japan. Part II: Cl/OH Partitioning between Hornblende and Melt and its Implications for the Origin of Oscillatory Zoning of Hornblende Phenocrysts

High-temperature–pressure experiments were carried outto determine the chlorine–hydroxyl exchange partitioncoefficient between hornblende and melt in the 1992 Unzen dacite.Cl in hornblende and melt was analyzed by electron microprobe,whereas OH in hornblende and melt was calculated assuming anionstoichiometry of hornblende and utilizing the dissociation reactionconstant for H₂O + O = 2(OH) in water-saturated melt, respectively.The partition coefficient strongly depends on the Mg/(Mg + Fe)ratio of hornblende, and is expressed as ln K₁ = (Cl/OH)_hb/(Cl/OH)_melt= 2·37 – 4·6[Mg/(Mg + Fe)]_hb at 2–3kbar and 800–850°C. The twofold variation in Cl contentin the oscillatory zoned cores of hornblende phenocrysts inthe 1991–1995 dacite cannot be explained by the dependenceof the Cl/OH partition coefficient on the Mg/(Mg + Fe)_hb ratio,and requires c. 80% variation of the Cl/OH ratio of the coexistingmelt. Available experimental data at 200 MPa on Cl/OH fractionationbetween fluid and melt suggest that c. 1·2–1·8wt % degassing of water from the magma can explain the required80% variation in the Cl/OH ratio of the melt. The negative correlationbetween Al content and Mg/(Mg + Fe) ratio in the oscillatoryzoned cores of the hornblende phenocrysts is consistent withrepeated influx and convective degassing of the fluid phasein the magma chamber. KEY WORDS: chlorine; element partitioning; hornblende; oscillatory zoning; Unzen volcano     

A Warning System for Stromboli Volcano Based on Statistical Analysis

In this paper we describe a warning system based on statistical analysis for the purpose of monitoring ground deformation at the Sciara del Fuoco (Stromboli Volcano, Sicily). After a statistical analysis of ground deformation time-series measured at Stromboli by the monitoring system known as THEODOROS (THEOdolite and Distancemeter Robot Observatory of Stromboli), the paper describes the solution adopted for implementing the warning system. A robust statistical index has been defined in order to evaluate the movements of the area. A fuzzy approach has been proposed to evaluate an AI (Alarm Intensity) index which indicates the level of hazard of the Sciara del Fuoco sliding.