气候变化对陆地水循环影响研究的问题

简要地回顾了现存的由气候情景驱动水文模型研究气候变化对陆地水循环影响的方法。指出这种单向连接方法很难将气候变暖及人类活动引起的陆地水循环变化反馈给大气。这既影响对降雨的预测精度,又不能正确地描写陆地水循环的变化。近10年来气候学家对大气环流模型中陆面过程模型的改进以及水文气候学家对大尺度水文模型研究所取得的进展,展现了它们之间的互补性,以及未来用水文-气候耦合模型方法研究气候变化与人类活动对陆地水循环影响及水资源预测的可能性。     

Runoff reduction due to environmental changes in the Sanchuanhe river basin

Recently, runoff in many river basins in China has been decreasing. Therefore, the role that climate change and human activities are playing in this decrease is currently of interest. In this study, we evaluated an assessment method that was designed to quantitatively separate the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in river basins. Specifically, we calibrated the SIMHYD rainfall runoff model using naturally recorded hydro-meteorologic data pertaining to the Sanchuanhe River basin and then determined the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff by comparing the estimated natural runoff that occurred during the period in which humans disturbed the basin to the runoff that occurred during the period prior to disturbance by humans. The results of this study revealed that the S1MHYD rainfall runoff model performs well for estimating monthly discharge. In addition, we found that absolute runoff reductions have increased in response to human activities and climate change, with average reductions of 70.1% and 29.9% in total runoff being caused by human activities and climate change, respectively. Taken together, the results of this study indicate that human activities are the primary cause of runoff reduction in the Sanchuanhe River basin.     

人类活动对中国滨海湿地的影响及其保护对策

人类为了获取大量生产和生活资料对滨海湿地资源进行了大规模的开发利用活动,给滨海湿地生态系统带来了严重的负面影响,如石油开发造成了石油污染、植被退化和动物栖息地减少等,大大降低了滨海湿地的生态功能和社会与经济效益。以辽河三角洲湿地、黄河三角洲湿地、红树林湿地等滨海湿地为例,从石油开发、湿地污染、土地利用变化、湿地开发、城市和港口建设、水利工程建设、湿地水文过程和热带海岸开发等方面探讨了人类活动对中国滨海湿地的影响,并提出了保护滨海湿地的对策和建议。     

潮河流域降水-径流关系变化及驱动因子识别

基于1973-2010年长系列日降水、径流数据,利用降水径流双累积曲线、M-K统计检验和降水集中度等方法,结合HIMS模型模拟结果,分析了潮河流域降水-径流关系的变化及其原因。得到的主要结论如下：（1）近38年来,潮河流域降水变化较小,但径流下降趋势显著,降水-径流关系发生了两次突变,即在1973-1983年、1984-1998年和1999-2010年三个阶段降水-径流关系存在明显差异;（2）大雨日降水总和（P_≥20）与径流深关系较为密切,其变化是导致降水-径流关系在1983年发生突变的主要驱动因子;（3）HIMS模型模拟结果显示,1999-2010年潮河流域下垫面条件较前两阶段变化明显,人类活动引起的减水效应由第二阶段的14.93%增加至第三阶段的25.78%,人类活动是导致降水-径流关系在1998年发生突变的主要驱动因子。     

1982-2006年中国东部春季植被变化(英文)

Vegetation greenness is a key indicator of terrestrial vegetation activity. To under-stand the variation in vegetation activity in spring across eastern China (EC), we analysed the variation in the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from April to May during 1982-2006. The regional mean NDVI across EC increased at the rate of 0.02/10yr (r2=0.28; p=0.024) prior to 1998; the increase ceased, and the NDVI dropped to a low level thereafter. However, the processes of variation in the NDVI were different from one region to another. In the North China Plain, a cultivated area, the NDVI increased (0.03/10yr; r2=0.52; p<0.001) from 1982 to 2006. In contrast, the NDVI decreased (-0.02/10yr; r2=0.24; p=0.014) consecu-tively from 1982 to 2006 in the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas, two regions of rapid urbanisation. In the eastern region of the Inner Mongolian Plateau and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in East China, the NDVI increased prior to 1998 and decreased thereafter. In the Hulun Buir area and the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin, the NDVI increased prior to 1998 and remained static thereafter. The NDVI in the grasslands and croplands in the semi-humid and semi-arid areas showed a significant positive correlation with precipitation, while the NDVI in the woodlands in the humid to semi-humid areas showed a significant positive correlation with temperature. As much as 60% of the variation in the NDVI was ex-plained by either precipitation or temperature.     

全球干旱/半干旱区年代尺度干湿变化研究的进展及思考

干旱/半干旱区气候变化研究一直是广泛关注的前沿科学问题,尤其是气候干湿变化规律及未来的发展趋势。过去大量的研究揭示了全球不同干旱/半干旱区的干湿变化事实和机理,取得了一系列重要进展,IPCC第6次评估报告明确指出未来全球干旱化将加剧,但也存在诸多问题没有得到一致的认识。本文将对全球变暖背景下有关干旱/半干旱区年代尺度干湿变化,特别是年代尺度干旱研究进行梳理,系统评述当前相关研究的现状并提出干旱/半干旱区研究所面临的关键科学问题。     

西宁城市居民家内外活动时间分配及影响因素——基于结构方程模型的分析

为深入挖掘居民不同类型活动的出行需求,进而制定更加精细化的交通政策,从活动分析法的视角出发,基于结构方程模型分析西宁城市居民家内外活动时间分配的机理及影响因素。结果表明:工作日,居民的通勤出行仍然是城市交通需要重点解决的问题。休息日,工作和通勤时间长的居民更倾向于在家内进行维持活动;而休息日不工作的居民更容易产生进行家外维持活动的出行需求。不同社会经济属性的居民对于家内外时间分配具有差异化特征。单位大院职住接近的特征对于减少居民通勤出行时间仍然具有积极作用,但维持性活动时间分配与其他类型社区居民已经没有显著差异。     

人类活动对公元1194年以来黄河河口延伸速率的影响

以近 50年来的观测资料和公元 1 1 94年以来苏北废黄河和现代黄河的历史文献资料为基础,在宏观时间尺度上 (1 0 2 ～ 1 0 3年 )研究了人类活动对黄河口延伸速率的影响。结果表明,废黄河口的延伸可以分为两个阶段,1 1 94～ 1 578年为第一阶段,河口延伸速率较慢 ;1 579～ 1 855年为第二阶段,河口延伸速率大大加快。 1 855年以来现代黄河河口延伸速率的变化曲线可以分为 3个阶段,分别用 3条斜率不同的直线来拟合。 3条直线之间的两个转折点可以代表人类活动的方式和强度发生改变的临界点。由此建立了人类活动影响下现代黄河三角洲河口延伸过程的三阶段模式。     

GIS APPLICATION IN RESEARCH OF WILDLIFE HABITAT CHANGE——A case study of the Giant Panda in Wolong Nature Reserve

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