城市天然气管网火灾定量风险分析系统研究与实现

随着城市天然气管网大面积铺设和投入使用,管线的安全风险问题日益突出。相关天然气泄漏、火灾、爆炸等事故对民众财产和人身安全产生了严重威胁。针对这一问题,基于GIS技术提出了一套燃气管网定量风险分析模型,结合燃气泄漏引发建筑物火灾的特殊背景下,提出适用的城市火灾蔓延模型,借助C#编程与ArcGIS Engine平台,开发一套城市天然气管网火灾定量风险分析系统。试验结果表明,本文系统有效地预测事故可能发生区域以及事故影响区域,并对发生火灾概率较大的区域实现蔓延模拟,从而预先对存在事故隐患的区域进行重点风险评价、安全教育乃至整个城市的二次规划和重建,有效抵御事故的发生,防患于未然。     

Target-oriented imaging using extended image volumes: a low-rank factorization approach

Imaging in geological challenging environments has led to new developments, including the idea of generating reflection responses by means of interferometric redatuming at a given target datum in the subsurface, when the target datum lies beneath a complex overburden. One way to perform this redatuming is via conventional model-based wave-equation techniques. But those techniques can be computationally expensive for large-scale seismic problems since the number of wave-equation solves is equal to two times the number of sources involved during seismic data acquisition. Also conventional shot-profile techniques require lots of memory to save full subsurface extended image volumes. Therefore, we can only form subsurface image volumes in either horizontal or vertical directions. To exploit the information hidden in full subsurface extended image volumes, we now present a randomized singular value decomposition-based approach built upon the matrix probing scheme, which takes advantage of the algebraic structure of the extended imaging system. This low-rank representation enables us to overcome both the computational cost associated with the number of wave-equation solutions and memory usage due to explicit storage of full subsurface extended image volumes employed by conventional migration methods. Experimental results on complex geological models demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology and allow practical reflection-based extended imaging for large-scale five-dimensional seismic data.     

Application of lagged correlations between solar cycles and hydrosphere components towards sub-decadal forecasts of streamflows in the Western USA

Trade winds localized within the Western Equatorial Pacific express lagged and statistically significant correlations to sunspot numbers as well as to streamflow in rivers of the Southern Rocky Mountains. Both correlation sets were integrated in a linear regression analysis to produce relatively accurate sub-decadal streamflow forecasts for an annual and a 5-year average. In comparison to the autocorrelation technique, the prototyped method yielded the highest correlations, the highest goodness-of-fit scores, and the lowest root mean squared errors, for both the 5-year average and the annual average assignments. Of all of the cases examined, the highest Kolmogorov-Smirnov test scores between observation and prediction were found for the single solar-based forecast 5 years in advance for the 60-month average streamflow of the Animas River in New Mexico.     

基于FY-2F数据的中国区域地表温度日变化模型评价及特征研究

地表温度日变化模型作为非常重要的输入参数在气象、水文、生态等领域研究中具有重要意义。风云二号(FY-2F)静止气象卫星的地表温度产品的时间分辨率为1小时,这为拟合精确的地表温度日变化(DSTC)模型提供了可能。本文首先利用194个气象站点对应的2014年的FY-2F地表温度产品评价了GOT01、VAN06、JNG06、INA08、GOT09和GEM_V这6种地表温度日变化模型在中国区的模拟精度,对不同时间窗口和不同地表覆盖类型拟合精度的差异进行了分析;其次,选用JNG06模型探究了中国区域地表温度随经纬度、季节和地表覆盖类型的日变化规律。研究结果表明:在不同时间窗口内,GOT09模型获得了全局最优的拟合精度,均方根误差为0.89 K;JNG06和GEM_V模型精度次之,均方根误差分别为0.92 K和0.94 K;GOT01、INA08和VAN06模型精度最差;各模型在城市和建筑区、农用地和自然植被以及常绿阔叶林这3类地表覆盖类型的拟合精度最好,其均方根误差在0.89—0.92 K,在其余地表覆盖类型的拟合精度在1.0 K以上。JNG06模型模拟的地表温度在4种典型的地表类型随纬度的变化规律较为明显,地表温度在1月份随纬度变化较为剧烈,在7月份整体波动较为平缓。综上所述,使用FY-2F地表温度产品建立的DSTC模型在中国区域具有较高的精度,模拟的地表温度随着纬度变化的规律较为明显。使用本文模型既可以纠正现有模型又可获取归一化地表温度产品,同时可以检验和标定陆面模式地表温度模拟结果。     

Investigation of the lateral spread of erbium ions implanted in silicon crystal

The erbium ions at energy of 400 keV and dose of 5×10¹⁵ ions/cm² were implanted into silicon single crystals at room temperature at the angles of 0°, 45°and 60°. The lateral spread of 400 keV erbium ions implanted in silicon sample was measured by the Rutherford backscattering technique. The results show that the measured values were in good agreement with those obtained from the prediction of TRIM'98 (Transport of Ions in Matter) and SRIM2006 (Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter) codes.     

大柳树高坝F201断层避让距离研究

利用国内外类似构造位置上的走滑型、逆走滑型发震断层极震区IX度等震线短轴在断层上、下盘分布宽度的统计分析,探讨了大柳树高坝的F201断层避让距离问题。经统计分析,给出了活断层IX度等震线短轴在断层上盘的优势宽度为6～6．4km,在这个距离之内,活断层的粘滑或蠕滑运动都可能会在地表产生永久性形变,同震或震后灾害严重,对于工程而言存在抗断问题。因此,这个数据可作为F201发震断层避让距离的参考值。野外调查表明大柳树高坝距F201活断层仅1．5km,小于本研究得出的活断层避让距离,而且坝址位于F201活断层上盘,因此不适宜在大柳树坝址修建水利水电工程。     

登陆广东省的初,终热带气旋分析及预测

本文分析了太平洋海温异常、ＥＮＳＯ与登陆广东省的初、终热带气旋的关系,并用海温建立了广东省初、终热带气旋的预报方程。     

植被生态服务功能经济价值测评研究——以陕南秦巴山区为例

According to differences in vegetation types and their coverage,combining the latest research ,using theory and method on the value of vegetation ecosystem services ,this paper not only calculated goods produced by different types of vegetation but also estimated the value of various vegetation ecosystem services and set up database,GIS and eco-account of vegetation ecosystem.The result was as follows: the value of vegetation‘‘s primary productivity,soil and fertility conservation,water conservation.CO2 fixation and O2 release was 199.6 billion yuan/a 22.64 billion yuan/a 22.6 billion yuan/a ,352.24 billion yuan/a and 374.19 billion yuan/a ,respectively.The total value of ecosystem services was 968.33 billion yuan/a.The temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest had the highest contribution rate,accounting for 16.42%,The result of value can reflect regional reality more exactly.     

建鲤与黄河鲤的RAPD分子标记及其杂交优势的遗传分析

利用RAPD技术对建鲤、黄河鲤及其杂交子代进行了遗传分析,筛选的33个引物共扩增出155条带,其中多态性片段为105条,片段S18-1600、S472-300具有种的特异性,可作为鉴别建鲤与黄河鲤的分子遗传标记。建鲤、黄河鲤及其正、反交子代群体内的遗传相似系数分别为0.8240、0.7921、0.7920、0.8569,黄河鲤与正交F1具有较高的遗传变异水平,反交F1变异最小。正交F1、反交F1与亲本(建鲤、黄河鲤)的遗传距离分别为0.2233、0.2436、0.1749、0.2026,说明子代均继承了较多的建鲤的遗传物质。分析了子代与亲本的RAPD标记类型以及各类型的条带数。应用PIT标记系统测定了子代的杂种优势并探讨了优势产生的遗传机理。     

A GIS-based method for flooded area calculation and damage evaluation

1 IntroductionFlooding simulation and damage evaluation has attracted attention in environmental disaster research fields for many years. Since the 1990s, especially in recent years, using geographic information systems (GIS) technology and its powerful functions of spatial analysis and visualization to simulate and display flooded area and to evaluate disaster damage has become a research hotspot. Most of the papers involved in this field are from hydraulic and hydrologic point of view and b…